Duke: Justise Winslow Emerges In NCAA Tournament
Even early in the season it was clear that it was Final Four or bust for the Duke Blue Devils. This team is just too talented for anything less. That thought was proven correct in the nonconference season as the Blue Devils knocked off Wisconsin and Michigan State before Christmas, eventually beginning the season 14-0.
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Freshman center Jahlil Okafor became the toast of college basketball. It is easy to see why. A big man with an offensive skillset has become a rarity, and his elite scoring down low is very refreshing. He was the top ranked player coming out of high school and somehow he was surpassing the enormous expectations placed upon him.
The other big story early on was the dual point guard system that Coach K implemented early in the season. How would freshman Tyus Jones and senior Quinn Cook coexist in the backcourt? After that proved to be a rousing success, the narrative around Duke usually involved Okafor, Jones’s poise, Cook’s redemption, or their poor defense.
They even had to deal with everything that went along with kicking Rasheed Sulaimon off the team. One player that was not talked about enough as a catalyst to Duke’s success was freshman wing Justise Winslow. To be fair, those of us here at Hoops Habit have been on the Winslow hype train for quite some time. So Winslow has gotten some love here and there.
Winslow wasn’t exactly ignored, but it still feels like he was not getting enough credit for Duke’s success along the way. That has changed due to his NCAA Tournament explosion. He is now being recognized as the elite college player and top NBA prospect that he truly is.
He has quietly developed into a potential top-five pick, and Grantland’s Mark Titus even thinks he should at least be considered for the top overall pick.
At first glance his numbers this season are not eye-popping. Winslow is currently averaging 12.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 48.5 percent from the floor. Those numbers were hampered slightly by a midseason slump, brought on by a rib injury that has required him to wear a protective jacket under his jersey.
Even through the pain Winslow has continued to play, providing consistent effort and defense even when his shot is not falling.
His play in the NCAA tournament has started to make more people realize how talented he really is. Much like his season statistics, his tournament numbers are not gaudy, but he showed up to play his best when the lights turned the brightest.
In the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight against Utah and Gonzaga, respectively, Winslow averaged 18.5 points and seven rebounds per game on 48 percent shooting and 5-for-8 from three-point range.
Against Utah he knocked down three triples on his way to a 21-point and 10-rebound night. Against Gonzaga he struggled to finish at the rim, but he made up for it by going to the free-throw six times and making all six attempts, finishing with 16 points.
His relentless attacking on offense and absolute domination on defense allowed him to completely control the game despite a 4-for-12 shooting line.
Without Winslow, I don’t think Duke wins that game, and without Winslow I don’t think their defense would have undergone such a dramatic shift from poor to stingy in such a short period of time. Okafor, Jones, and Cook may be just as important as Winslow, but they are certainly not more important.
We like to throw around the term “X-factor” whenever a player provides a well-rounded skillset, and Winslow very much embodies that.
NBA teams have to be salivating at the thought of landing Winslow. He is a chiseled 6-foot-6 225 pounds with the freakish athleticism you’d want from a defensive stopper.
The comparison I kept making early in the season was to former Kentucky star and current Charlotte Hornet Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, thanks to his tendency to play exceptional transition defense and occasionally provide earth shattering blocks.
After seeing him play for an entire season that comparison may be a bit off base. He has the same defensive potential of Kidd-Gilchrist, he has the same high-motor and aggressiveness, but his offensive ceiling is much higher. His jump-shot is already better than Kidd-Gilchrist’s will ever be.
Shooting was the biggest question mark coming into the season for Winslow and he answered those concerns quite well. He is currently shooting 41.7 percent from deep this season on 2.9 three-point attempts per game.
I’d expect that number to drop as he adjusts to the deeper NBA three-point line next season, but if he can be just a league average three-point shooter as a professional, he will be an All-Star due to his other strengths. If he somehow stays a 40 percent three-point shooter in the NBA then Winslow may be an eventual MVP candidate.
That is putting the cart before the horse to an extreme degree, but it is not out of the question.
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His ball-handling could use some work, but he has little trouble using his quickness to get to the basket. Once he polishes up some of the rougher aspects of his game, he could develop into an All-Star type player for the next decade. All the tools are present he just needs some refining.
For now the NBA can wait. Winslow still has a business trip to take care of. This week Duke will travel to the Final Four in Indianapolis. Saturday night they’ll take on a Michigan State team they beat way back in November. If they can take down the Spartans again, they face either a rematch with Wisconsin or a date with undefeated behemoth Kentucky.
I’m not so sure Duke will take down the Wildcats if they play one another, but if they do you can bet Justise Winslow will have something to do with it.
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