Atlanta Hawks: Mapping Out The Ideal Road To The Finals

The extraneous struggles the Atlanta Hawks have endured over the past month may be the best thing that ever could have happened.

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More specifically, the injuries suffered by Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague over the month of March have forced coach, Mike Budenholzer, to deliberately rest his All-Star cast.

With the likes of Mike Muscala and John Jenkins leading their attack, the Hawks potency, on both ends of the floor, has predictably declined.

While for the season, Atlanta still ranks sixth in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 106.1 points per 100 possessions, and eighth in defensive rating, allowing only 100.8 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com, their efficaciousness has dipped dramatically in March — especially on the defensive end.

In fact, the Hawks are conceding more than 104.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranked 22nd in the association for the month, and an overall net rating of just plus-0.7.

To make matters worse, their star center, Al Horford, has been in an elongated slump for the majority of the month.

But, a little regular season turmoil goes a long way in building the character and resiliency of an NBA championship team. For such reasons, their franchise setting 19-game winning streak during late January was concerning in a sense that Atlanta might have peaked too soon.

However, their recent turmoil has most definitely kept the scrappy, cohesive bunch on their toes, and should prevent them from — as Christian Laettner would famously suggest — resting on their laurels.

Budenholzer, for the most part, agrees, recently stating to Paul Newberry of the Bradenton Herald, “We want to be playing good basketball going into the playoffs, we want to have an edge going into the playoffs, and we want to be healthy going into the playoffs, ” the coach said. “That’s our challenge.”

As much as health and peaking at the right time can help spawn a prosperous playoff run, the luck of the draw can, at times, play just as big of a role as the aforementioned factors.

With that in mind, what would be the ideal — while still maintaining some resemblance of rationality — path to the finals look like for the Hawks? Let’s take a gander at my often hallucinatory crystal ball:

First Round: Boston Celtics

At present, the No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup in the Eastern Conference would indeed feature the 56-18 Hawks and the 33-41 Celtics.

Oh, how the tables have turned since 2008, when the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce-Ray Allen-led juggernauts had to veraciously fight off the an eighth-seeded Atlanta team in a grueling seven-game series led by the rising triumvirate of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and a rookie Al Horford.

The series also gave us one of the best on-mic post-game performances of all-time, courtesy of former Hawk, Zaza Pachulia.

However, this series will not go to game seven. The Cs would be lucky if they made it to game five.

Undoubtedly, Celtics’ coach, Brad Stevens, has proven that smart, analytically-driven coaching can effectively eradicate a franchise’s most-stealth efforts in tanking. More specifically, looking down Boston’s unmitigated disaster of a roster, there should be no conceivable way this team even sniffs a playoff spot.

But, driven in large by playing in a historically inept Eastern Conference, the Celtics are poised to indeed make a postseason run.

While the Celtics were able to steal a game away from the Hawks during the three times the respective teams faced off against one another, the talent discrepancy between the two squads is simply too drastic for such a series to remain competitive.

Surely, the Cs hounding perimeter defense, spearheaded by their resident dobermans, in Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, will give Teague and Dennis Schroder some troubles penetrating and initiating; however, both, Horford and Paul Millsap — who has personally been carrying the Hawks team over the past month — should pick up the playmaking duties and overwhelm the likes of Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller.

Prediction: Hawks in four.

Second Round: Washington Wizards

This particular scenario is a bit of a stretch since the Wizards have been one of the worst teams in the league since the All-Star break, posting a minus-3.6 net rating over the ongoing stretch, good for seventh-worst in the association post-trade deadline.

Moreover, if the current standings were to stay as is, their matchup with the Toronto Raptors has historically been an unfavorable proposition for Washington fans. In fact, the Raptors have swept their season series, 3-0, against the Wizards this season.

However, the Raptors have also had their fair share of struggles as the incumbent season winds down. In particular, their incompetency on the defensive end continues to plague their championship aspirations, housing the league’s fifth-worst defense post All-Star break.

If, by chance, the Wizards can perhaps get out in transition and unleash the full capacity of the John Wall experience, Washington could perchance upset the fourth seeded Raps.

If so, that would set up an extremely advantageous second round matchup for Atlanta. Explicitly, the Hawks have decimated Washington in their three contests this season, highlighted by their 31-point trouncing on Jan. 11 at the Fortress.

In addition, the Wizards 1990s-archaic, mid-range dependent style of offense plays perfectly into the Hawks’ help-heavy, suffocating brand of D.

In summation, the Hawks should breeze through the series. As such, when taking into account a John Wall-takeover game:

Prediction: Hawks in five.

Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers

Realistically, a matchup against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers will inevitably happen at some point if the Hawks were to advance to the NBA Finals.

Facing LeBron, especially when paired with his star studded cast consisting of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, will never be an easy task. However, you would ideally want to delay the daunting challenge till the very end in hopes of facing a worn-down LeBron and the James Gang.

In an ideal world, the Cavs would be coming off two grueling series against the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls. You would hope that Dwyane Wade turns back the clock, and gives us the classic LeBron versus D-Wade matchup we, as the NBA universe, have been yearning for for over a decade.

The Atlanta Hawks Have Swarmed The Cavs This Season

Dec 30, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) shoots a lay up against the Atlanta Hawks in the first quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

From there, Hawks fans should hope the Bulls peak at the right time, and coach Tom Thibodeau’s penetration-stifling, funnel all actions to one side defense can make the Cavs’ isolation-happy offense wilt in a seven-game duel.

Then, when the ECF approaches, the Hawks, coming off two relatively easy series, can pounce on the wounded Cavs and blitz them with a barrage of spread pick-and-rolls, side-to-side ball movement, and penetration-and-kick inducing threes.

Additionally, Cleveland, for the most part, has had trouble containing the Hawks’ pace-and-space offensive attack, succumbing under the pressure of Atlanta’s scrambling, chaotic D in three of their four contests this season.

While, both, LeBron and Kyrie will have their signature games, where they single-handedly carry the Cavs to victory, the Hawks’ persistent attack, and their ability to inspire perpetual stress on Cleveland’s defense, should propel them in a series against a wounded and beat up Cavaliers squad.

Prediction: Hawks in six.

With the playoffs starting in 19 days, the anticipation for the most exciting time of the year grows. As the Hawks continue to rest their key players, and prepare for the playoffs, the championship ambitions in Atlanta have become a pleasant reality.

As the old adage goes, “the post-season are all about matchups” — and if the basketball gods are willing, the Hawks are hoping for the perfect mix of health, optimal play, and a little bit of luck en route to their hopeful journey towards the NBA Finals.

Next: How The Atlanta Hawks Stack Up Against The League's Elite

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