NBA: Carpe three-em! 3-point shot continues to rise in prominence

In what has been dubbed the pace-and-space era in the NBA, the 3-pointer has continued to take on more prominence.

The 2013-14 season was a watershed moment for the NBA and the 3-pointer, as it marked the first time in history that one-quarter of all shots attempted last season—25.9 percent to be exact—were 3-point attempts.

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That record is on its way down this season. Through Sunday’s games, the 3-point rate is at 26.8 percent—49,135 of the 183,555 shots taken in NBA action this season have been from beyond the arc.

That is a more than tenfold increase from the 1980-81 season, when 3-pointers comprised just 2.3 percent of all shots attempted.

The 3-point shot was introduced in the NBA in 1979-80 after it had been used in a couple of rival leagues—the American Basketball League from 1961-63 and the American Basketball Association from 1967-76.

The first year the line was in place, 3.1 percent of all shot attempts were home-run balls, but after the gimmick wore off, that rate fell the following year.

It topped 5 percent for the first time in the 1986-87 season. The 10 percent threshold was reached in 1992-93.

From 1994-95 through 1996-97, the rate skyrocketed, topping 20 percent for the first time in 1995-96 after the line was moved in to 22 feet for those three seasons.

Once the line was moved back to its original 23 feet, 9 inch distance in 1997-98, the rate dropped back to 15.9 percent—still significantly higher than the 11.7 percent from 1993-94, the last season the line had been at its current distance.

In 2005-06, the 20 percent mark was breached from the longer range. Last season marked the first time the 25 percent barrier was broken.

And this season has a chance to come in at or around 27 percent.

Yes, teams are bombing away with more frequency than ever.

You can see the rise in league-wide attempts on this table:

Through Sunday’s games, six teams—the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers—had already broken their previous franchise records for most 3-point attempts in a season.

The Rockets, in fact, have already blown through the old NBA record of 2,371 3-point attempts set by the 2012-13 New York Knicks. Through Sunday’s games, Houston had already tried 2,421 shots from deep and are on pace for an almost mind-boggling 2,719.

For some perspective on that number, bear in mind that 23 teams combined to attempt 3,815 3-pointers in 1980-81.

But in addition to the six teams that have already broken their single-season attempts records, there are another nine clubs that are on pace to set new marks.

That’s right—half of the teams in the Association are on pace to establish new franchise highs in 3-pointers attempted.

This table outlines each team’s high-water mark for attempts, with the teams that have already set marks noted and those on pace to set new franchise records also pointed out.

If the Bad Boys Pistons of the late 1980s slowed the offensive pace of NBA basketball to a crawl with a reliance on pick-and-roll sets almost every time down the floor, the NBA of this era is based on movement, passing and a constant barrage of 3-pointers.

In transition, the 3-pointer can be almost impossible to defend, in part because defenders are taught from the earliest levels of the game to defend the rim. A guy pulling up from 24 feet on a fast break used to be something that would give a coach heartburn and a player splinters in his backside from spending so much time on the bench.

Now, it’s a strategy that is taught.

And in the half-court set, movement—both of players and the ball—is king. The dream of nearly every offense in the NBA is to get a man open for the easiest of the 3-point shots, the 22-footer from the corner.

With the dearth of what was the NBA’s offensive bell cow for decades—the dominant low-post scorer, NBA teams and coaches have adjusted and that adjustment has moved offensive basketball out of the post and onto the perimeter.

Big men are taught to look to kick the ball out to open 3-point shooters in the corners or on the wings. The old pick-and-roll has in many cases, based on personnel, turned into the pick-and-pop, where the screener—rather than rolling to the basket—curls off the pick out to the arc.

Does it work? Of the teams in the top 10 in the NBA in 3-point attempts this season, five have already clinched playoff berths—including the two teams that will have home-court advantage in each conference, the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors.

Two other teams, the Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks are virtual locks to reach the postseason and the Phoenix Suns are still in the mix. Only the 76ers and Pistons among the top 10 in attempts are not in the playoff hunt as the season winds down to its final two weeks.

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Conversely, among the teams in the bottom 10 in attempts through Sunday, the Memphis Grizzlies were the only team that had clinched a playoff spot. The Washington Wizards, who clinched Monday, joined that list, with the Milwaukee Bucks likely to make the playoffs and the Brooklyn Nets, New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets still in contention.

The NBA’s worst team, the Knicks, is 20th in 3-point attempts. The second-worst squad, the Minnesota Timberwolves, is last in the league.

So if you’re looking for a correlation between wins and 3-point attempts, a case could be made.

Don’t look for the trend to go away very soon. The last three NBA champions, the Miami Heat in 2012 and 2013 and the San Antonio Spurs last season, were masters of the pace and space game and nothing gets imitated more than success.

Much like the Internet of the late 20th century, the 3-pointer is no longer a fad. It’s here to stay as a viable offensive strategy.

All statistical information courtesy Basketball-Reference.com.

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