Up And Down: The Inconsistent Kelly Olynyk

The Boston Celtics have a big man problem.

They have had one for a while. Brandon Bass averages just 10.5 points a game and is the textbook NBA definition of an average player. But Bass has scored more points this season than any other Boston big man.

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Jared Sullinger ballooned up to more than 300 pounds this season before he injured his foot. Tyler Zeller has been a good rim protector but plays just 21 minutes per game. Jonas Jerebko is scoring just 5.9 points on 5.7 shots in March.

And then there is Kelly Olynyk, the consistent model of inconsistency. Since he missed more than a month with an ankle sprain, Olynyk has had some great games and more bad ones. He has scored 49 points over the last seven games, but 38 of those points came in just two games.

After Olynyk scored 20 points in a tough loss to the Thunder, he then went 0-for-6 for zero points against San Antonio. And after Boston scored a huge playoff-position win over Brooklyn on Monday, they then dropped a huge opportunity against a Miami team with no Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, or Hassan Whiteside.

Olynyk scored 18 points against the Nets but just four against the Heat.

It is disappointing when one remembers how Olynyk played earlier this season. Olynyk had some terrible games after he played a good game, but he was much better. He scored 30 points against the 76ers in December and 23 against Toronto in January.

Olynyk’s inconsistency, his guard-like playing style, and even his peculiar hairstyle means that he is vulnerable to one of the worst basketball insults: “soft.” Olynyk is soft, people say. Olynyk lacks mental toughness and will not finish through contact.

These claims are overblown, but there are reasons to worry about Olynyk’s mental state. There is no doubt that he is one of the hardest workers on the Celtics. His free throw rate of .265 is not impressive, but it is still much better than Sullinger. This shows that Olynyk is more willing to get into the rim and make moves which will get him hacked and sent to the foul line.

But while Olynyk is willing to put in the work on the practice floor, the scoring big man often does not try to score. He shot 12 times in that good game against Brooklyn but just three against Miami.

Perhaps some of that can be attributed to a mental unwillingness to shoot, but the bigger problem here is mechanics. Olynyk’s shot mechanics are sound, but he releases the ball only just above his head. This low release makes Olynyk’s shot easier to block.

Take a look at a player who is stylistically similar but far superior – Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki in general has a high release on his shots. Then when he uses his famous fadeaway jumper, “he leans back so far that you can’t block it,” as LaMarcus Aldridge noted.

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Olynyk is not at a point in his career where he can just redevelop his entire shot, and so he will have to adapt to that problem in other ways. Still, this shows that Olynyk’s inconsistency from game to game is just as much about basketball factors as it is about the mental side of the game.

The Boston Celtics need Olynyk to play well this season and in the playoffs – but they may not need him next season. Sullinger has some major basketball issues even before you remember how dangerous foot injuries are in the NBA (see: the recent news about Kevin Durant.) But Sullinger is a much better rebounder and has more potential than Olynyk.

Olynyk lacks the mass and Sullinger is too short for either to play center, so one of them will be stuck on the bench.

Olynyk may be better suited to come off the bench and provide a spark during the second and fourth quarters. But bench players get shuffled around the NBA all the time. If Olynyk wants to work to stay a Celtic and not just another journeyman, he will need to improve his offense, rebounding, and consistency to ensure a spot.

Olynyk is still just 23 years old, so he has time to continue to improve his game. But as Boston makes a playoff push and hopes to solidify its big man rotation, they will need more from Olynyk, Zeller, and everyone else over these final 11 games.

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