Washington Wizards: Still Can’t Shake Off The Problems

Feb 25, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) looks on during the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Timberwolves won 97-77. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 25, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) looks on during the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Timberwolves won 97-77. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Last season (2013-14) marked the renaissance period of the Washington Wizards. After not winning a single playoff series in nine years, Randy Wittman collected all the momentum heading into the playoffs, which resulted in a five-game thrashing of the Chicago Bulls.

Once Washington made it to the second round, the quarterfinal against Indiana was completely winnable. Had Roy Hibbert not put on the performance of his lifetime in Game 2 — 28 points on near-flawless 10-of-13 shooting and 8-of-8 from the foul line — perhaps we would’ve witnessed John Wall take on LeBron James for the East crown.

However, the young, defensive core the Wizards have built couldn’t win at home. Their only three games in the Verizon Center for last year’s second round …. were all losses. Game 6 was the most brutal, as they completely gave up on both ends of the court and allowed the combo of Paul George and David West to eliminate them. The home crowd, which had been ramping up the intensity after the first round, was left hanging.

Washington Wizards
Feb 11, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Washington Wizards head coach Randy Wittman talks to his players against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Wizards 95-93. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /

One year later, these Wizards still can’t finish at home.  There’s two differences this time around, though. Last year, John Wall led a team that was exceeding expectations, and actually made it further in the East than most anticipated (they claimed a five-seed heading into the playoffs). This time around, the bar was set high. The other difference is quite a concern:  Even Randy Wittman is becoming fed-up with the inability to finish games, or even listen to simple instructions.

During the Wizards’ 32nd loss of the season Wednesday vs. Indiana, Wittman expressed the greatest frustration you possibly can with a team. He walked off the court, and headed to the locker room before the buzzer even sounded.

With 11.9 seconds left, Wittman expressed clear instructions for his team to execute defensively. Wall had just tied the game at 101-101 with a 3-pointer off an illegal Gortat screen (which no ref saw). Given the amount of times Indiana has been in these late-game situations with George Hill at point guard, Wittman pretty much knew what was coming.

“We knew they was gonna run a 1-4 pick-and-roll with David West and George Hill, and he kind of slipped it, but coach said no matter what just trap the ball,” Wall said on the timeout discussion.

Washington sure sniffed out the play perfectly, but they failed to stop anything defensively. They didn’t follow Wittman’s orders, and didn’t act with the right gameplan on the final play.

As the ball is inbounded, George Hill flares off the left block to start the play. As you can notice, it’s Martell Webster who gets the duty of defending Hill at the top of the key:

Now, we’ll never know if Wittman is the one who directed Webster to be the defender on Hill. But, if he did, it’s unfathomable how John Wall is being hid defensively in the corner … on the most important possession of the game. By forcing Webster to defend the high pick-and-roll, it created a huge problem that wasn’t easy to overcome:  Once Hill gets past the first defender, it’s almost impossible to “trap” the ball, like Wittman wanted.

Thus, how was the gameplan even conceivable?  Wall is left to guard C.J. Watson in the corner, and there’s only one scenario that makes sense there. If Wall shows a lot of help defense in the paint, he is certainly fast enough to recover on Watson, if Hill dished out a pass to the corner. Webster wouldn’t  be fast enough.

With Webster guarding the ball, Hill just has to put enough speed under his feet to beat him off the dribble. What makes this such a beautiful play is the fact that Vogel is a magician on after-timeout-plays (ATO’s). He has David West “slip” the pick, which basically means to “fake”:

Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards /

Just as football is a “game of inches,” basketball is a game of seconds. That’s how I describe it, since all it takes is one little second for West to catch Nene off guard. The little fake screen freezes Nene momentarily, and that’s trouble for a big guy unless he’s young and super speedy:

Screenshot (129)
Screenshot (129) /

Once Hill predictably gets enough momentum to blow by Webster, Nene is already defeated. His steps get miscalculated since West scared everyone for a second. But, the question to Nene would be … if Wittman instructed that “no matter what, just trap the ball,” why was he so concerned about West slipping to the right?

The primary goal is to stop the ball. In fact, it would’ve created extra pressure on Hill for two reasons. Trapping him would’ve took precious ticks off the clock, and could’ve forced a bad decision. Hill isn’t exactly a tremendous passer, and smothering him with two large bodies on the perimeter was the priority. From there, West would’ve had a clear jumper, but you have to be able to rotate effectively in the final seconds of a game. The best option likely would’ve been to trust your defensive rotations once Hill was trapped.

However, I highly doubt Hill gets enough steam to blow by John Wall off the slipped screen. Because once he got by Webster’s slower feet, there was little a defense could do.

Wall’s defensive pressure this year shouldn’t be glossed over. Out of all point guards this season, there is none higher in defensive real plus-minus, which takes into account your personal defensive excellence and limits the effect your teammates have on your plus-minus numbers. Wall’s rating this season is +1.93, which tops the league over Eric Bledsoe (1.90), Ricky Rubio (1.86), Stephen Curry (1.81), and Kyle Lowry (1.35).

With Wall guarding the initial screen roll, things may have played out differently.

An even bigger factor was removing Marcin Gortat from the game for the final play, especially after he made the biggest defensive stop in Washington’s fourth quarter. Gortat rejected Hill on another penetration opportunity, just two plays prior:

Gortat isn’t the fastest neither, but having rim protection in the final play of the game (with 11 seconds left) is crucial. In these moments, it may have been safer to trust the production Gortat has given you defensively all year. Hill’s length and stretch on his release made it difficult for Nene to recover and contest. Neither option really matters, because Washington wasn’t supposed to let it get to a layup finish in the first place.

Struggles Heading Into April

Even after losing Trevor Ariza, this franchise envisioned a huge boost from their level of play in 2013-14. Paul Pierce wasn’t playing possum to any of us, since everyone knew he wouldn’t be as much of a scorer as Ariza was for Washington (mainly because he’s eight years older and also eight past his prime).

However, everyone within the organization was still optimistic about huge offensive changes. The golden rule around the NBA is that roster continuity will guide any group to improvements, really on either end of the court. Having another year of Wall, Beal, Nene, and Gortat together was sure to escalate Washington into the top three out East.

Jan 28, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall reacts in the second quarter against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 28, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall reacts in the second quarter against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

At first, that forecast was accurate. Through their first 25 games, the Wizards stormed to a 19-6 record. At that moment (mid-December), the Atlanta Hawks were only 18-7, directly behind Washington and Toronto for the East lead.

All of a sudden, the bottom fell out of the nation’s capital. Since Dec. 19, Wittman’s bunch has went just 21-26, with a winning percentage of .447. In that same span, the Hawks have went 36-10, a winning percentage of .783.

The Wizards’ unforeseeable skid through 2015 has featured a losing streak of five games from Jan. 28 – Feb. 5, another losing streak of six games from Feb. 11 – Feb. 27, and now a current four-game losing streak.

It’s not even the losses that’s making players feel dejected. It’s the fact that their most recent play hasn’t even been one bit competitive. Over the last four losses (to Clippers, Kings, Warriors, Pacers), Washington has an average point differential of -17.5. You could even sense the bleakness in Wall’s attitude vs. Indiana, as he tied the game late with a triple. Normally, Wall’s character shines through his actions late in games, especially if he’s knocking down long-range shots he isn’t known for.

This time of the year, with Washington appearing as if they wouldn’t make any first round matchup competitive, Wall isn’t smiling. He still looked aggravated when he tied the game, because he knows the truth:  There’s no excuse for playing down to your opponent, and it’s embarrassing to be incompetent against a non-playoff team (Indiana) … at home.

On the flip side, the Wizards haven’t even stepped up to the plate against top teams in the league, neither:

Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards /

Out of all 16 playoff teams currently making the cut, Washington ranks 13th in winning percentage vs. teams .500 or better. Their record of 10-21 in such games is only better than the final three seeds in the East. It’s even worse than Oklahoma City’s record, after the Thunder dug themselves into a massive hole before January.

It’s been ugly. Wall isn’t backing down from letting his frustration go public:

“I said we only have 11 games left:  it’s either we can fold now and take whatever seed we get and have a first-round exit if we’re gonna keep playing the way we’re playing, or we suck it all up as a group,” Wall said after the loss to Indiana. “We know guys are in pain, guys are tired, fatigued at this time of the season. But this is the time when we need momentum going into the playoffs and hope we have a spectacular run.”

With another year to improve as an offensive unit, Washington has dipped in offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) compared to last season. From last year’s offensive rating (106.0, ranked 17th overall), they’ve dropped to 102.1 this season, still 17th.

Their net rating of +1.7 is just marginally better than last year’s +1.4. You expect a greater increase for a team that’s driven to prove itself. Last May’s run through the playoffs should have served as enough motivation.

Some of the issues were attributed to the inconsistent health of Bradley Beal, who’s missed 18 games this season for various injuries. In the loss on Wednesday, Beal went down again with a sprained ankle. It limited him to only 11 minutes, forcing the Wizards to finish the game without him.

Even when Beal’s available, though, the leap many expected out of the young 21-year-old hasn’t been there. He had himself an impressive playoffs one year ago, and this was projected to be a breakout for a guy that could battle for the “top shooting guard” spot in the near future. However, Beal’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is down from last season, at 13.9. It’s still below league-average, which is 15.0.

The silver lining to these mediocre times in Washington, if you did have to choose one, would be the youth of the backcourt. Wall and Beal are still learning how to play together, and hopefully Wall will one day be given a team that can space the court. This is a backcourt that needs a roster around them built on perimeter attack, and the current Wizards aren’t made for it. They take just 16.6 3-pointers per game, the third-lowest amount in the league.

It doesn’t take much to recognize how badly Wall wants a different core around him. While he’ll never say it, because he’s loyal and not one that creates issues, he should realize by now that he could thrive in a different offense. Sadly, it won’t be anytime soon.

With the postseason just three weeks away, a first-round draw seems destined to be Toronto. Coincidentally, both teams have been pedestrian since the All-Star break.

For Washington to transform the ride they’re currently on, a major offensive spurt has to strike. Being two games away from a conference finals is a feat nobody can imagine these Wizards achieving.

In a year where the East was supposed to be wide open, it seems to be narrowing as the days go by.

**All statistical support credited to NBA.com**