Indiana Pacers: Playoff Window Nearly Closed?

Immediately after the All-Star break, the Indiana Pacers decided to bludgeon opponents even harder. It all began at the start of February, when head coach Frank Vogel noticed an invigorated offense. It happened uncharacteristically, since Indianapolis has only been home to a powerful defense for the last few seasons.

From February 13 to March 13 (10 games after the All-Star festivities), Vogel led a charge with a 9-1 record. During that month span, the Pacers ranked seventh in offensive rating by scoring 105 points per 100 possessions on average. Seventh doesn’t seem too much to brag about, but when you consider the six teams above them, it just made you appreciate this overachieving group.

Portland (106.1), Golden State (106.3), Oklahoma City (106.7), New Orleans (106.7), San Antonio (108.5), and Cleveland (111.1) were the only teams above Indiana in offensive rating during that period, and there’s a commonality with each of them:  Either they’re clearly playoff-bound, or they have a supernatural star refusing to bow down (Anthony Davis).

Without Paul George, the Pacers have nothing extraordinary … at least on paper. Sure, the franchise is paying $15 million to Roy Hibbert, a center that’s affected the way defense is played at the rim. But, have Hibbert’s offensive skills mirrored anything extraordinary, or special enough for a paycheck that large? Indiana natives would shake their heads faster than Westbrook’s fastbreak drives.

Even more revealing about the Pacers’ stretch from Feb. 13 – Mar. 13 was their net rating, which is the ultimate measure of a team’s performance on both ends. It’s simply offensive rating minus defensive rating, but it’s difficult to get that figure into double-digits for a month period. Nonetheless, Indiana had the league’s best net rating from Feb. 13 – Mar. 13, with a difference of 12.7. It was the result of having the NBA’s seventh-best offense and the second-best defense during that stretch. They were playing the most unselfish style of ball since Vogel was hired, having the sixth-highest assist percentage (61.9) throughout the league.

Since March 14, everything has went into the sewer. You couldn’t recognize the Pacers if the whole team showed up on your doorstep, because the winning ways have disappeared. In the eight-day span since March 14, Indiana has owned the league’s worst net rating, an horrific -11.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s been worse than the Knicks, Timberwolves, and Hornets in the small sample size.

Since their dynamic 13-2 stretch, Indiana has recently dropped five straight. For one reason or another, each has been disappointing and inexcusable. The home loss to Boston was a game you’re supposed to win, given the incentive of a playoff race. The next loss (hosting Toronto) was embarrassing due to the allowing of a triple-double by Kyle Lowry. Losing to an undermanned Chicago unit (without Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose) hurt because of the decisive 14-point win Indiana collected over them just two weeks prior.

A three-point loss in Cleveland wasn’t the end of the world, since LeBron was in a scoring zone — 29 points with 13 coming in the fourth quarter alone. However, it was upsetting for the team because they felt they had a real chance to pull out a victory at the end. If David West hadn’t been too sick to finish the game, many people believe it could’ve been a different story.

Then, there was Saturday’s degradation vs. Brooklyn.

Under no circumstance did anyone see the 28-39 Nets sneaking into Bankers Life Fieldhouse and grabbing a win, especially on a back-to-back.

Wait … especially after being 24 hours removed from a triple overtime thriller with Milwaukee. Has any team ever had that much bounce-back stamina? Brooklyn was playing 111 minutes in two nights, which is something you rarely see on the NBA level. You definitely never see it in the NCAA.

Not only did Lionel Hollins do a terrific job at preaching the “every game matters” soliloquy to his guys, but he got something in return:  Efficiency.

The Nets were having a cookout, scorching Indiana by shooting 61.3 percent from the field. It was the first time the Pacers allowed any opponent to shoot at least 61.3 percent in Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Keep in mind, their current arena opened in November 1999, so it doesn’t mean it was the very first occurrence. In 1992, the Pacers allowed a team to shoot 61.5 percent in an 8-point loss. Coincidentally, it was the New Jersey Nets, the same franchise that burned them on Saturday.

Indiana did set one horrific record on Saturday, though. It was the first time in Pacers history that an opponent shot 61.3 percent from the field while only committing eight or fewer turnovers. Nobody came to play defensively. They couldn’t slow down anyone in the paint, couldn’t force Brooklyn’s guards into mistakes, and couldn’t make the Nets’ entry passes difficult.

Typically, the two facets Indiana succeeds in are its wing-hounding defense (which limits penetration), and making it incredibly tough for opposing big men to gain position. Both areas failed, as the Pacers suffered the largest point total against them this season. Brooklyn’s 123 points were the most any Pacer team has allowed since the 2010-11 season, when Goran Dragic led a Phoenix offense to 124 points.

While it was discouraging on many levels for Vogel, the most disturbing part of the loss was how they defended center, Brook Lopez.

Whether it was off many pick-and-roll sets or post-up isolation with Lopez, Indiana did absolutely nothing to slow him down:

In the play above, Deron Williams gets a quick crossover dribble on George Hill, which allows him to take a drive toward the baseline. Hibbert has developed a knack for keeping guards away from the rim, so he habitually steps over to cut off a potential paint opportunity for Williams.

However, Hibbert wasn’t aware of who he was messing with on Saturday.  Lopez is no average center, nor is he one that never learned how to step away from the basket. This season, Lopez has taken 20.9 percent of his field goal attempts from 16 feet or further, which is the area he thrived in during Saturday’s win. While he’s only shooting 42.2 percent from that distance, it’s not low for a nonathletic center. It’s actually a true threat.

Hibbert either didn’t recall that he wasn’t facing a traditional big man, or he didn’t respect Lopez’s ability to hurt defenses off pick-and-pop reads. Thus, Lopez had all day to size up his shot. George Hill is one of the two or three longest point guards when it comes to arm length and wingspan. His defensive presence of stopping Williams’ drive has to be trusted in certain situations, because Hibbert can’t continue to leave jump-shooting big men.

Other times, it was truly just masterful screen-roll game from Brooklyn’s best duo:

This is a perfect example to young players growing up of how to pick apart a great defense. Here, Williams does the best job you can do at faking a screen-roll. He crosses to his right as Lopez is inching closer to Hill. The initial thought in any defender’s mind is that Lopez is setting a ball screen for Williams to go right.

However, one quick spin move to the left makes everything switch gears. All of a sudden, Hill is caught over-committed to Williams’ right hand, and he’s one step behind D-Will as he heads toward the paint. There really isn’t a better solution for Hibbert other than what he did:  Take a couple steps over to make Williams think twice. In this instance, Williams was already too close to the rim (and he’s a solid finisher with the left hand), so it was necessary for Hibbert to do so.

That left Lopez uncontested, with just enough time for Williams to deliver him a bounce pass. While there wasn’t much ground Hibbert had to cover, it doesn’t negate the fact that he’s still not quick enough on reaction times. Lopez is a ridiculously good finisher with those quick floaters, as you rarely ever see a center with that soft of a touch. Lopez connects on 49 percent of his shots from within 10-16 feet this season, which is where the shot above comes from. It’s the best he’s shot from that range since the 2011-12 season, so it’s been tough for any defense to contain — not just the Pacers.

There isn’t any way around it. When Hibbert and the Pacers face a center that’s comfortable playing in a spaced offense, they’re going to get burned:

Even if it’s Jarrett Jack running the offense, Brooklyn still creates havoc against Indiana. The play above drove Vogel up the wall — enough to where he angrily calls a timeout after the made shot — due to Hibbert’s pick-and-roll defense. Some players or coaches out there would be understanding of Hibbert’s decision to fully commit to Jack’s drive, as it’s clear C.J. Watson got hung up while going around Lopez’s screen.

However, it was almost as if Hibbert completely neglected Lopez near the perimeter. The very second Hibbert bails to attack Jack’s dribble penetration, Lopez calls for the ball. He knew it was time to take a final bite and end the meal:

As you can tell, Hibbert’s stance is in full-fledged movement toward Jack, and it’s all setting up to be a disaster. There’s no telling how many faces turned sour on the bench (directly in front of the play) as the play unfolds.

Hibbert literally chases the point guard parallel to the restricted area, before Jack reacts to the double team. At that point, there’s a good 18 feet between Lopez (open) and his defender:

Again, there’s an abundance of teams in the league where this would be fully acceptable, since cutting off the paint is Indiana’s top priority. That’s because the “stretch five” is extremely rare at any level of basketball. If there’s a stretch four, it’s mainly David West stuck on him to limit the deep ball.

In this case, it’s just too much to ask from Hibbert, who is probably the slowest center in the league when it comes to halfcourt movement. His decisions aren’t brisk, and his feet don’t move as fast as his body needs them to. You can see that clearly in his offensive post-ups, too.

Thus, matching him against a center that’s not only quicker, but also more likely to stretch the range, is a huge risk that doesn’t normally pay off.

David West tries to mitigate the problem when he realizes how much space Hibbert left for Lopez. He appears torn, not being able to commit his mind to leaving Alan Anderson wide open on the wing:

West ultimately makes the wise decision, just holding onto a prayer that Lopez misses from deep. Anderson is a 35 percent 3-point shooter this season, and Lopez isn’t selfish — he would’ve passed up a good shot for a great shot.

Hibbert’s best choice in this situation would’ve been to “show” a little help on Jack’s drive, since George Hill actually takes a step over to help Watson cut off the attack at the last second. Skeptics would say that it’s too dangerous to leave Bojan Bogdanovic even a little bit of room on the corner (since he’s a 34 percent outside shooter on 3.2 attempts per game. However, Hill is a potent defender, and he would’ve recovered to Bogdanovic in time.

Hibbert hasn’t been the ideal option to defend a pick-and-roll, for these very reasons. His damage has been on guard penetration to the rim, where those guards try to challenge him on the finish. We witnessed him struggle against Atlanta during last year’s playoffs (due to long-range big men), and the same issue persists this season. Surely the Pacers can’t “want” the Hawks in the first round.

The Playoff Race

As it pertains to the details of the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Pacers are stuck in the middle … in more than one way.

They currently sit at 30-39 after the five-game losing streak, now a half game behind Charlotte (30-38) for the East’s eighth seed. The only problems are, Boston is now in a tie with Indiana (with the same record) and Brooklyn is a half game behind both of them. Miami has the prettiest face out of all five, as Dwyane Wade has them sitting in seventh, two full games ahead of the Pacers.

At this point in the year, you absolutely have to examine the remaining stretches for each team. As mentioned, the Pacers are stuck right in the middle when it comes to strength of remaining schedule:

The average record of the Pacers’ 13 opponents left on the schedule is just 35-47, which is just slightly below Charlotte’s remaining average (37-45), and Brooklyn’s (36-46). Although, Miami’s last 13 foes have an average record of 34-48. It’s apparent — none of the five schedules seems to be extremely easier than the others. It’s going to be the closest grind in the last decade, because it’s normally just two groups fighting each other. This time, it’s a herd of wild animals.

There is a part where things get a bit interesting, though.

Never before have I seen a race where all teams involved will play each other multiple times to end the year. If you noticed on the chart above, the category of “Games vs. Borderline Playoff Teams” indicates how many games each team will play against the other four.

For example, the Pacers have four meetings left with the teams listed next to them. What’s so ridiculous about it?  Well, check the dates here:

• March 31 — at Nets
• April 1 — at Celtics
• April 3 — vs. Hornets
• April 5 — vs. Heat

Is this some type of sick comedy?

Indiana faces off against all four borderline playoff teams in a six-day span. Four games in six nights is already a tough challenge to overcome during any part of the regular season. But to face this stretch, knowing you absolutely need every single win, puts an enormous amount of pressure on a team.

As the Pacers have proven to us time after time — even with Paul George — they aren’t fit to handle such pressure.

Don’t hold your breath for that to change.

**All statistical support credited to NBA.com/Stats**