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ACC: Can Virginia Win The Championship?

By Andrew Snyder

Mar 12, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers forward Anthony Gill (13) and guard Justin Anderson (1) and guard Marial Shayok (4) celebrate from the bench against the Florida State Seminoles in the second half during the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. The Virginia Cavaliers won 58-44. Mandatory Credit: Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers forward Anthony Gill (13) and guard Justin Anderson (1) and guard Marial Shayok (4) celebrate from the bench against the Florida State Seminoles in the second half during the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. The Virginia Cavaliers won 58-44. Mandatory Credit: Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the best stories in college basketball during the 2013-14 season. A storied basketball program that had fallen on hard times, Virginia saw a resurgence last year, winning both the ACC regular season and tournament championship.

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After the season, their starting small forward Joe Harris was selected in the second round of the NBA Draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers, and their rim-protecting center, Akil Mitchell, graduated. The last time Virginia won an ACC regular season title (in 2007), they slipped up the next season going 17-16 and failing to make the NCAA tournament.

The losses of Harris and Mitchell made some worry (mostly me) that the success that came last season would be harder to attain, especially considering how loaded the ACC was projected to be. Virginia took those concerns and proceeded to start their season 19-0 before losing to Duke on the final day of January.

The Cavs would only lose one game in the rest of the regular season, giving them a 28-2 (16-2) record. That mark was good enough to capture them a second consecutive ACC regular season title. They would falter in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament to North Carolina, failing to sweep conference championships as they did the previous season.

Their biggest bit of adversity wasn’t wins and losses. It was the injury to their best player, do-everything wing Justin Anderson. He fractured a finger on his shooting hand in early February which was expected to put him out for four to six weeks.

Once he was starting to prepare to return to the court, Anderson found out that he would need an appendectomy, delaying his timeline even further. Bad luck for a good player who had been playing great this season.

For the season, Anderson is averaging 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game, but his most impressive attribute is his improved outside shooting.

After shooting only 29.4 percent from outside last season, Anderson raised his three-point shooting percentage 46.9 percent on 4.1 attempts per game. Losing that kind of spacing, not to mention Anderson’s excellent driving ability, really hampered Virginia’s offensive game plan. It left London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon as the only true creators/scorers on the perimeter.

Evan Nolte and Marial Shayok are fine role players, but they could not fill the void left by Anderson.

There is some good news, Anderson is back. Anderson returned in the first game of the ACC tournament against Florida State, where he struggled, scoring no points on 0-for-2 shooting in only 12 minutes. He also went scoreless in the next game against North Carolina, shooting 0-for-4 in his 14 minutes of action.

His defense is still reliable, he even provided a highlight reel worthy block against Carolina, but his shooting woes are a big problem. Shooting after a hand injury can be tough, and there is no guarantee that Anderson will find his rhythm in time for him to help Virginia win a national championship.

With all their success, it is a little surprising that they are a No. 2 seed heading into the NCAA tournament. They were the best team in the ACC all season and do not have the puzzlingly bad losses that Duke and Wisconsin do.

Ken Pomeroy, the advanced statistics genius of college basketball, has Virginia ranked as the fourth-best team in the country (surely using some method I’m not smart enough to even comprehend), behind Kentucky, Arizona, and Wisconsin. But, I do not think the selection committee has reached that level of sophistication with their methodology.

At this point their seeding does not matter, they are in the tournament and finally getting healthy. The question remains, can they win it all?

Even for their recent offensive woes, their No. 1-seed snub, and Anderson’s injury issues, Virginia still plays fantastic defense. The hallmark of squads coached by Tony Bennett is usually an absolutely stifling defense. They are holding opponents to only 86.1 points per 100 possessions, which is second-best in the country trailing only the big, bad Kentucky Wildcats.

Darion Atkins and Mike Tobey hold down the interior; Atkins was even named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. While Malcolm Brogdon is likely the best perimeter defender in the conference. Anderson and Perrantes are quality defenders as well, giving the Wahoos a reliable defender at every spot in their starting five.

With Anderson being out of the lineup so long, their offensive rating slid to 34th in the country (110.9). That may be mediocre, but it is not a number that would make you worry about them scoring enough to win games in the NCAA Tournament.

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    • Virginia likes to take things slow and grind down their opponents. Controlling the tempo will be the key to making a deep run in the tournament. If they can force teams to play slow, allowing them to set their defense, they will be tough to beat.

    The other factor is, of course, the return of Anderson. If he can get close to the level he was at before his various maladies, then Virginia becomes a much more dangerous offensive team. Staunch defense and the ability to score efficiently make for a deadly combination.

    Fortunately they are not in Kentucky’s side of the bracket, so a date with Goliath would not come until the National Championship game. They have the talent, coaching, and defense to win a title. It is just a matter of everything falling into place.

    Their journey starts Friday afternoon in Charlotte, N.C., against Belmont. They have not reached a Final Four since 1984, so there is no doubt that Wahoo Nation is waiting to explode in jubilation just thinking about Tony Bennett raising the school’s first NCAA championship trophy.

    Let the games begin.

    Next: NCAA Tournament Predictions

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