Miami: Wins Needed To Join The Big Dance

ByAndrew Snyder|

Mar 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Miami (Fl) Hurricanes guard Sheldon McClellan (10) brings the ball up court against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at the Petersen Events Center. Miami won 67-63. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday the ACC tournament finally began, well, kind of. The early round of games has been dubbed #tuesdayingreensboro on Twitter, a reference to the first set of Tuesday games ever played in the ACC tournament, and a subtle bit of shade thrown at the mediocrity of the early-round games. Think of it as the appetizer before the first two courses roll in on Wednesday and Thursday.

Today, I’ll continue my trend of looking at teams on the bubble and determining how their resume is shaping up. It is the consensus now that six ACC teams are just about locks for the NCAA Tournament.

More from NBA

Duke and Virginia are on pace to be No. 1 seeds. Notre Dame, Louisville, and North Carolina are safely in the field. Finally, NC State finds themselves with some breathing room thanks to winning five of their last six games to close out the season.

However, there is one more ACC team that has a glimmer of hope heading into the ACC tournament. That team is the Miami Hurricanes.

Miami comes to Greensboro with a 20-11 (10-8) record. They tied with NC State for sixth place seed in the conference, but won the tiebreaker, thanks to a head-to-head win over the Wolfpack. Yet NC State still has the better NCAA tournament resume of the two teams, due to their strong record against the RPI top 50 and the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation.

Miami currently has an RPI of 60, which is not great; their strength of schedule is also weak at 80th. The strong ACC schedule helped them a bit, but a nonconference strength of schedule of 198th significantly hampers their profile. The selection committee encourages teams to challenge themselves outside of conference play, but Miami just did not do that this season.

The two losses to teams outside of the RPI top 100 and one loss to a team outside the RPI top 150 are tough to come back from without a difficult schedule to fall back on.

Impressive wins over Duke, NC State, and Syracuse are balanced out by questionable losses to Eastern Kentucky, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. They’ve passed the eye test several times over in those big wins, especially in the 90-74 win over Duke. But they’ve also looked abysmal, losing to Georgia Tech by 20 at home.

There is no doubt that they have talented players. Guard Sheldon McClellan is one of the best in the conference at getting to the basket and scoring (he is shooting 50 percent from the field). His 14.8 points per game leads the team, which made his snub from the three All-ACC teams rather surprising (though he did make Honorable Mention for the media vote).

The key to this team getting back on track might be McClellan’s backcourt partner Angel Rodriguez. Rodriguez started the season looking like one of the best guards in the country, impressing by leading the Canes back from a 15-point deficit against Florida. Rodriguez scored 24 points and knocked down five three-pointers in the win.

Since the nonconference season ended, he has been a model of inconsistency. He followed up an 8-for-15 24-point night against Duke by shooting 20-for-103 over his next eleven games. That’s certainly not ideal. The Canes simply need better production from him, or they are not the dangerous team they appeared to be early in the season.

Rodriguez has missed his last two games due to a right wrist sprain, and it is still unclear if he will be ready to play in the ACC Tournament. If Miami gets the good version of him back, they could conceivably make a run to the semifinals or even further. With no Rodriguez, or bad Rodriguez, they could lose in their first game.

Currently, ESPN’s bracket wizard Joe Lunardi has Miami in his “first four out” section, while CBS Sports and Jerry Palm have the same.

It’s pretty simple for Miami. One win gives them a shot, and two wins should get them safely into the NCAA tournament. The first game will be against Virginia Tech, so a win there will not move the needle, but a quarterfinal upset over Notre Dame would make some serious noise. They have the talent to do so, and Jim Larranaga is one of the better coaches in the ACC.

Don’t count the Canes out just yet.

Unless, of course, they let Virginia Tech go crazy from outside and they end up out of the tournament before you can say “Buzz Williams’ sweater is giving me a headache”.

Then they’ll be at home filling out brackets just like the rest of us.

Next: Syracuse: A Season Tainted By Scandal

More from Hoops Habit