Big 12 Tournament: Which Team Has Most To Prove?
By Cody Daniel
The Big 12 tournament gets under way Wednesday and what’s at stake for each team in what should be the most competitive conference tournament will differ throughout the field. Teams like the Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners will be looking to solidify their places as No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.
The Baylor Bears and West Virginia Mountaineers will both be looking to jump up from their current place as a No. 4 seed and No. 5 seed respectively, according to Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders and TCU Horned Frogs will both simply be looking to build some steam in hopes of an NIT appearance.
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And then there’s the Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma State Cowboys and Kansas State Wildcats, and their near-future could dramatically change depending on what they prove to the selection committee this week, but which of these teams has the most to prove between now and Saturday?
Oklahoma State
As of now, Lunardi has the Cowboys safely in the NCAA tournament as the No. 11 seed in the East bracket, but just because Oklahoma State is in before the conference tournament kicks off doesn’t assure them a spot in the field of 68 when the bracket is finally selected.
Bracketology currently has the Cowboys on the bubble as the third team among the “Last Four Byes,” which is only five spots ahead of being among the First Four Out, so there isn’t much room for error for Travis Ford’s club.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they have a second-round date with their in-state rival, Oklahoma, which is the hottest team in the Big 12 after winning nine of its last 11 and swept the season series against Oklahoma State.
Although they will likely drop their final meeting of the season against the Sooners, losing to a team projected to be a No. 3 seed in NCAAs with the Big 12 Player of the Year, Buddy Hield, shouldn’t be enough to drop them out of the Big Dance.
Texas
The Longhorns entered the final week of the regular season facing must-win games against Baylor and Kansas State in order to keep their NCAA tourney hopes alive, and they did just that. Those efforts pushed Texas into the “Last Four In” group, but they’re still, at the very least, a win over Texas Tech in the first-round away from a guaranteed ticket punch.
But a Texas loss against the Red Raiders would surely push the Longhorns back to the outside of the bubble looking in and if the Horns’ make it to the second round and suffer a blowout loss to Iowa State, the result could be the same, despite Texas winning its previous three games.
So not only do the Longhorns need to make it past their meeting with Texas Tech – which they likely will, just as they did in both regular season meetings – but they’ll have to hang with, if not defeat, the high-octane and efficient offense of the Cyclones to extend their season.
Kansas State
The Wildcats are the most intriguing of this trio of teams that will be looking to make a statement in the Big 12 Tournament, as they’ve got the most impressive resume against college basketball’s top 50 after going 8-10. Included in this is back-to-back upsets of Big 12 powers Kansas and Iowa State in their final two home games of the season.
K-State was a team that started to make a bit of noise at the end of the regular season and debates of whether or not their impressive victories should overshadow some absolutely horrible losses arose.
Those talks ceased after a double-digit loss to the Longhorns in the regular season finale, but if there’s ever a conference tournament that poses the potential for some eye-opening wins, it’s in the Big 12.
The Wildcats will have all eyes on them as their first-round meeting with TCU kicks off Big 12 Tournament play. This is a game Kansas State should win with some solid contributions from guys like Marcus Foster, Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson and a victory would pit K-State in a rematch of their late-season upset over the Jayhawks in Manhattan.
Of course, it would take another major upset for the Wildcats to advance and face the winner of Baylor and West Virginia, but if they were able to pull that off, the possibility of an NCAA tournament bid would re-emerge.
From there, for Kansas State to make a solid case for themselves as a team deserving of a spot in the Big Dance, they would have to continue their success and pull off one final upset over the Bears or Mountaineers.
Some would argue that K-State’s only hope is an automatic bid by winning the Big 12 tournament, but if it can somehow sneak into the championship game, they’d end up with a total record of 18-16 after winning five of its last six, with four of those being over ranked opponents and Kansas being in that group twice.
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With a convincing conclusion to the season like that, it would be hard to keep K-State out of the tournament.
Now, of course, it’s extremely unlikely that it all plays out like this for Kansas State, but this is March Madness and anything is possible, especially in the Big 12.
Who has the most to prove?
As for who has the most to prove … well that just depends on how you look at it. A loss in a tough second-round matchup with the Sooners could possibly put Oklahoma State on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas absolutely must win over Texas Tech and avoid an embarrassing loss to Iowa State, and Kansas State, at the very least, has to make an appearance in the Big 12 title game.
But my vote for the team with the most to prove goes to Texas, due to Oklahoma State dropping out of the field with a loss being a slight possibility at best and the overwhelming task of stealing three wins in the conference tourney for K-State being highly unlikely.
The Longhorns are the team that’s found themselves in nearly every bubble watch conversation over the recent weeks and that isn’t going to change before Selection Sunday. Texas entered the season as a team many thought could make a run at the Final Four, but a free-fall in conference play made it an uphill battle for the Horns’ to even make the NCAA tournament.
With all eyes on what Texas does in the Big 12 tourney, they’ll have the most to prove as they’re just inside of the better side of the bubble and still have some work to do to assure they go dancing.
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