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Indiana: Back On The Bubble

By Andrew Snyder

Feb 22, 2015; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Crean during the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Louis Brown Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim O
Feb 22, 2015; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Crean during the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Louis Brown Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim O /
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Don’t look now, but things are getting a bit hectic in Bloomington. The once promising Indiana Hoosiers are right back on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and Tom Crean’s already toasty seat might have reached its boiling point.

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The Hoosiers have lost four of their last five games, and three straight to end the season. That includes a particularly troubling loss to a plucky Northwestern team that is not ranked in the top 100 of the RPI. This is a troubling distinction when it comes to the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Their record now sits at 19-12 (9-9) which puts them in a tie for the seventh seed in the anemic Big Ten.

What is the cause of their current strife? It’s that troubling defense I wrote about back in January. Their defensive shortcomings were always waiting to bite them in the backside if their offense could not compensate, and that finally seems to have happened.

They are allowing 106.4 points per 100 possessions which gives them the 295th best defensive rating in the country. Their lack of size shows itself in the form of rim protection, or lack thereof. Indiana allows opponents to shoot a hefty 51.4 percent from inside the three-point arc.

Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., and various other perimeter defenders allow easy dribble penetration which opens up shots at the basket, and outside shots. At this point their defense is what it is, they just have to hope the hole they have dug themselves is not too deep.

Is it too late to shore up those issues and make a run in the Big Ten Tournament?

A few wins in the Big Ten Tournament should get them over the hump in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. Of course, that’s easier said than done. They will take on No. 10 seed Northwestern in their first game. On paper a matchup with 15-16 (6-12) team seems appetizing, but the Wildcats took down Indiana 72-65 in their only meeting this season.

Northwestern shot 8-for-20 from deep in that game, and Indiana could not slow down Tre Demps. You can bet that “close out on shooters” and “cover Demps” are on Tom Crean’s scouting report.

As it stands Joe Lunardi of ESPN has the Hoosiers as one of the teams in his “Last Four In” category. Their RIP currently sits at 50, mediocre but not terrible. Their strength of schedule is solid at 30th best in the country. Their best wins have come over Butler, Maryland, and Ohio State, which is more impressive than some of their bubble brethren. Barring a loss in that first game they should manage to sneak in.

Now, if Northwestern gets win number two over Indiana, and they fail to make the Big Dance, what does this mean for Tom Crean? Every season a new movement pops up from Indiana fans asking for his dismissal. His $12 million buyout has kept him safe for the time being. It falls to $7.5 million starting in July, but it is unlikely they would wait that deep into the summer to dismiss him.

Crean has failed to lead Indiana to the NCAA Tournament in four of his six full seasons (in three of which, the Hoosiers finished under .500), consecutive years reaching Sweet Sixteen in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 were his only tournament appearances.

They had a talented squad last season, led by Yogi Ferrell and current Charlotte Hornet Noah Vonleh , but they finished 17-15 and Crean declined a CBI invitation stating “We’re Indiana. We don’t play in the CBI.”

Given the importance of the game, I expect Indiana to take down Northwestern and solidify a spot in the NCAA Tournament, saving Crean’s job for another year. Given their high-powered offense, they could even make a deep tournament run, depending on how hot they get from outside. They could also lose in the first round. That variability makes them the most Jekyl and Hyde team in college basketball.

I feel confident in predicting that Crean will be back in Bloomington for at least one more season. So, for fans clamoring for a shot at luring Brad Stevens back to the Hoosier state, I’m sorry to say, maybe next year.

Next: Big Ten Awards Predictions

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