Ah, the mythical 50-50-90 club — throughout the annals of NBA history, no NBA starter has ever enjoyed such god-like shooting efficiency.
This was the year we were supposed to experience history in the making.
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This season, perhaps more so than any other, the NBA has fully embraced the new age of analytically-driven basketball.
The general public (with the exception of Charles Barkley) has finally accepted the notion that floor spacing, points at the rim, free throws, and 3-point shooting represent the cornerstones of modern day offenses. Archaic theories, such as playing inside-out through low-post play, and the old adage of “live by the three, die by the three” has been thrown out of the proverbial window.
A Brave New World
Accordingly, cavalcades of 3-point records are set to be shattered this season. Most notably, the Houston Rockets are on pace to make 953 3-pointers on 2,763 attempts this season, per the Houston Chronicle, which would break both NBA records in each respective category quite comfortably.
Meanwhile, a week ago, Damian Lillard broke Klay Thompson‘s record for the most 3-pointers made by a player in their first three seasons in the association, according to Casey Holdahl of the Portland Trail Blazers’ official website.
However, the crown jewel of accomplishments that most NBA fans had paid the most attention to was the potential immortalization of Kyle Korver into the chaste 50-50-90 club.
The Best Shooting Season Of All-Time
From October to January, Korver looked to be a lock to become the inaugural member of the prestigious club.
Explicitly, “Threezus” (his awesome and underutilized nickname according to his Basketball-Reference profile), averaged 13.1 points per game on 52.0 percent shooting from the field, a jaw-dropping 53.7 percent from behind the 3-point line (on nearly six attempts per game), and 91.8 percent from the charity stripe during his first 47 games of the incumbent season.
Sure enough, during the aforementioned stretch, he led the league in TS% (true shooting percentage) and was the only perimeter player to be ranked within the top-five in eFG% (effective field goal percentage).
There were murmurs that Korver was, perhaps, having the best shooting season of all-time — especially when taking into account the volume of shots he was attempting and the role he assumed within the Atlanta Hawks’ offensive scheme.
For such reasons, many, including myself, openly advocated Korver’s selection into the NBA All-Star Game. Aside from his historic shooting, his presence on the floor, namely the chaos he instills and the fear he inspires on opposing defenses, earned the veteran his first appearance in the world’s most extravagant pickup game.
Fall From Grace
Ever since the month of January ended and the month of February commenced, Korver has been on an uncharacteristic prolonged shooting slump.
In fact, according to Basketball-Reference, the sharp-shooting 33-year old’s shooting percentages have plummeted to 38.6 percent from the field, 36.1 percent from beyond the arc, and 83.3 percent from the free throw line over the last 12 games.
His point production, not surprisingly, has dropped to 9.8 points per game over the aforementioned stretch; and his advanced metrics across the board, from his eFG% to his individual offensive rating, have all taken a deep nosedive.
As a result of his month-long slump, he is now waiting at the doorsteps of the 50-50-90 club, sporting a personal shooting split of .492/.496/.907 for the season.
Probable Causes
To effectively pinpoint the cause of Korver’s downfall in shooting, the following questions must first be answered:
- Has his allocation of shots remained constant throughout the season?
- Has his role within the Hawks’ offense changed, at any capacity, over the course of his struggles?
To answer the first question, let’s compare his shot chart for the entirety of the season to his shot chart over the past 12 contests:
As you can see, the majority of his shots have remained from behind the 3-point line. In particular, the frequency of his attempts from the above the break areas have stayed relatively the same. Interestingly, he has had a higher percentage of his threes derive from the corners over the past month.
It seems as though Korver has been taking the same kind of shots and getting the same brand of looks; he’s just converting them on a rather humane rate.
Which leads us to the second question, has Korver’s role changed over the course of his slump?
FanSided
While his minutes per game have remained consistent, the absence of Thabo Sefolosha since the end of January has coincided with the dip in efficiency he has been experiencing.
Atlanta’s depth of the wings has been shallow throughout the season. Sure enough, Sefolosha’s injury has put more pressure on guys like Korver, DeMarre Carroll, and Kent Bazemore.
Correlation does not equal causation, but when taking into account the external factors of age and wear and tear, fatigue may be the most prominent factor to Korver’s shooting recession.
The purity of his stroke and his rigid offseason training has extended Korver’s longevity as a high impact player.
However, at 33 years old and 12 seasons deep, the amount of minutes he has been playing this season is less than ideal. To be more specific, Korver has played the third-most minutes of any player, aged 33 or older, this season.
Having played more than 22,699 minutes in the NBA, and an additional 3,540 minutes as a collegiate player at Creighton, Kyle’s legs may be giving in as we approach the final month and a half of the 2014-15 season.
To make matters worse, Korver’s game is based off of perpetual off-ball movement on offense as well as omnipresent weak- and strong-side timely rotations on defense. Not surprisingly, Korver has traveled the 10th-most miles of anyone in the league this season, per NBA.com’s SportVU Data.
Accordingly, a Ray Allen mid-season addition would have been the perfect remedy for the Hawks’ issues on the wings. However, with the recent announcement that Allen would take the rest of the season off to recuperate his body, coach Mike Budenholzer must now explore alternative avenues to rest his primary offensive weapon.
Next: 5 Likely First Time NBA All-Stars Next Season
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