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Big 12: Can Kansas State Sneak Into The NCAA Tournament?

ByCody Daniel|
Feb 23, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats players celebrate on the scorers table following a 70-63 win against the Kansas Jayhawks at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 23, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats players celebrate on the scorers table following a 70-63 win against the Kansas Jayhawks at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

The Big Dance is right around the corner and at this very moment, the odds aren’t in favor of the 15-15 Kansas State Wildcats getting their ticket punched.

The discussion of the Wildcats sneaking into the NCAA Tournament was unworthy of mentioning only two weeks ago, but back-to-back upsets over the No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks and No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones later and K-State seemingly has a dubious, but imaginable chance of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday.

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So how can K-State sneak into the NCAA tourney, and how likely is it that this mountainous task ahead of the Wildcats comes to fruition?

When it comes to making the NCAA Tournament’s field of 68, a team’s résumé is everything and Kansas State has one of the most interesting in the country. Included in their 15-15 (8-9) record, the Wildcats compiled several impressive victories in a season where Kansas State had the third ranked strength of schedule, which is indicative by their 8-9 record against RPI top 50 teams.

Included in their victories is a season sweep against the Oklahoma Sooners, a narrow victory over the Baylor Bears and the aforementioned recent home court defenses against Kansas and Iowa State.

Feb 28, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats guard Nigel Johnson (23) shoots the ball in front of Iowa State Cyclones forward Jameel McKay (1), guard Monte Morris (11), and forward Georges Niang (31) during the Wildcats
Feb 28, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats guard Nigel Johnson (23) shoots the ball in front of Iowa State Cyclones forward Jameel McKay (1), guard Monte Morris (11), and forward Georges Niang (31) during the Wildcats

If the selection committee were to select teams simply based on their ability to come out on top against top teams, K-State’s 5-7 record in ranked matchups would look rather impressive, especially considering they played in the most competitive conference in college basketball this season; the loaded Big 12.

But in K-State’s case, this season’s losses speak volumes and having just as many losses as you do wins doesn’t bode well for any team with NCAA Tournament aspirations.

Of the Wildcats’ 15 losses, it’s not the ones where they fell just short against the No. 3 Arizona Wildcats 72-68, or dropped conference road games to Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas or West Virginia. For Kansas State, the glaring hindrances on their tournament résumé are the multiple bad losses, such as their defeats against Long Beach St., Texas Southern, Texas Tech and TCU.

In what little defense could be made for these losses, all but the TSU loss came on the road, while the Texas Tech loss came as part of a three-game skid where Marcus Foster was suspended and K-State fell just short against No. 25 Texas 61-57 and No. 21 West Virginia 76-72.

Nevertheless, those four bad losses were all games that Kansas State shouldn’t have lost, with or without Foster, and had that been the case, there would be no debate as to whether or not they deserved to sneak into the NCAA Tournament because they would have all-but secured a tourney appearance by now.

The consequence of this roller coaster of results is Kansas State’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament being a long shot to say the least.

If K-State is able to continue their recent success and keep their tournament hopes alive, their overwhelming journey will have to begin by ending the desperate Longhorns’ efforts to sneak into the NCAAs, as well, on Saturday in Austin. But even with a third-straight impressive victory to close out conference play, Kansas State’s 16-15 regular season finish would still have the Wildcats on the short end of the stick, as Kellis Robinett of The Kansas City Star pointed out:

"“History is certainly not on the Wildcats’ side. No team has received an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament with more than 14 losses or a winning percentage lower than .533. Both marks belong to the 2001 Georgia team that went 16-14 against a schedule comprised almost entirely of top 100 RPI teams.”"

With the odds not being in Kansas State’s favor – despite the potential for a tremendous regular season conclusion – the Wildcats will need to come up with some statement wins in the Big 12 Tournament, which would help tremendously if some success to close the season was fresh on the minds of the selection committee.

A victory over Texas in Austin this weekend –which is the only possible way K-State has tourney hopes entering the Big 12 Tournament – would give Kansas State a .500 finish in conference play and a 6-seed in the conference tournament, which would pit them against Oklahoma, if the current Big 12 standings were to hold true.

If the Wildcats are able to come up with an upset after their first round conference by – whether it be Oklahoma or Iowa State – they’ll still need to do the same in the third round and, at the very least, make an appearance in the Big 12 Championship game.

As you can see, the odds of getting into the Big Dance certainly aren’t in favor of Bruce Weber and his Wildcats. They’ll need some luck on the hardwood, as well as in the minds of the selection committee, but just because it’s unlikely doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

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