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Toronto Raptors: 3 Keys To NBA Finals Chances

By Nathan Van Hoff

Dec 13, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey talks to guard DeMar DeRozan (10) and forward Tyler Hansbrough (50) and guard Terrence Ross (31) against the Philadelphia 76ers at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the 76ers 108-100. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 13, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey talks to guard DeMar DeRozan (10) and forward Tyler Hansbrough (50) and guard Terrence Ross (31) against the Philadelphia 76ers at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the 76ers 108-100. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 20, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) is fouled by Toronto Raptors forward James Johnson (3) on his way to the basket during the second half at Philips Arena. The Raptors defeated the Hawks 105-80. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 20, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) is fouled by Toronto Raptors forward James Johnson (3) on his way to the basket during the second half at Philips Arena. The Raptors defeated the Hawks 105-80. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Team Defense

While Terrence Ross and DeMar DeRozan’s improvement could push the Raptors’ ceiling higher, the season’s ultimate success or failure will depend on whether their defense can improve or not.

As I’ve noted in the past, only one team has ever made it to the Finals ranked worse than 17th in defensive rating, according to Basketball-Reference.com. That team happened to have two guys named Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal on it. The Raptors are sitting at 20th right now, per Basketball-Reference.com.

Last year, the Raptors finished 10th in defensive rating, per Basketball-Reference.com. A quick look at the rosters shows there isn’t much difference outside of Louis Williams getting minutes that Rudy Gay or John Salmons got last year.

Head coach Dwayne Casey is as confused as anyone. From Simmons of the Toronto Sun,

“I’m surprised by how much we’ve gotten better offensively, and how much we’ve dropped off defensively,” he said. “It’s like a pendulum. We’ve got to find a balance. When our ‘D’ drops, our offense seems to pick up, and when our offense drops, our ‘D’ has picked up.”

(Note: The Raptors have gone from 10th in offensive rating to second, per Basketball-Reference.com)

While it may be confusing as to why the group has dropped off on the defensive end so much, it is encouraging that they have the pieces to be a top 10 defensive team. If the offense can remain strong and the defense can approach the same level they were at last year, wins like the one below could become a little more common.

Casey’s pendulum broke to pieces during this game. The Raptors defense forced 15 steals and the Hawks committed 22 turnovers. The Hawks also struggled from the field shooting 33 percent from the floor and 21.1 percent from three. It was a mixture of good, aggressive defense from the Raptors and poor shooting from the Hawks.

If the Raptors can use this game to build momentum on the defensive end of the floor, that will bode well for their Finals chances.

The offense has been nice. Terrence Ross and DeMar DeRozan can bring more to the table for the Raptors. However, Casey continues to believe defense has to be the focus to get where they want to go. From Simmons,

“I still think defense has to be our calling card in the playoffs. If we learned anything last year, it was once the playoffs start, it’s a different game.”

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