Phoenix Suns: Desperate Gamble or Calculated Risk?

Picture if you will — an angry, scorned gambler hunched over a table with an equal combination of excitement, hope, fear and dread emanating from his unshaven, stubbly face. He knew he was heading for this moment and he was going out guns blazing, one way or the other.

Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver entered the NBA trade deadline with a similar kind of attitude. He had been riding a streak of relatively good luck after watching Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic continue to improve, to the point that both were in top-10 point guard considerations.

In the gambling sense, it’s like Sarver was coming off of being dealt a hard 19 every hand. Yeah, it’s not the best hand but it’s better than average — and in the long run you’re going to come out ahead.

Think of those brutal buzzer beaters as the dealer turning a hard 16 into a 21. It happens. Overall, the Suns were still overachieving and had hopes of making the 2015 NBA playoffs.

But just like in a casino, Sarver’s luck turned sharply. Once Dragic came out and made his thoughts known, including a stinger of a comment about not trusting Suns management, things started to barrel downhill. They changed the proverbial dealer on Sarver and suddenly those better-than-average hands were nothing but trash.

Video has some colorful language — NSFW!

It’s at that point where a decision had to be made. In the case of Nicky Santoro, getting even wasn’t an option. He could have taken the money, gotten out and lived to fight another day. Instead, he went all out and in the case of the movie, he ended up paying the ultimate sacrifice.

Luckily basketball isn’t life or death, but Sarver had a version of that option as well. He didn’t have to take the explosion route. He didn’t have to unload Isaiah Thomas and Miles Plumlee, essentially neutering whatever bench depth was left.

But, like a scorned ex-lover, the Suns decided that they were going to completely change what they had been building.

Ryan McDonough on new Suns guard Brandon Knight: "We feel like we got the best player in the trade, coming or going."
— Paul Coro (@paulcoro) February 20, 2015

Don’t fool yourself — the Suns didn’t get the “best player in the trade, coming or going” as Ryan McDonough claimed. That’s no disrespect to Brandon Knight, but it’s obvious that at this stage of their careers, Dragic is the better overall player. Here’s the synopsis of the comings and goings:

The “prize” of this trade for the Suns can be looked at one of two ways, depending on how you feel about Knight. If this is the guy who you think the Suns acquired, then you’re more excited about the draft picks:

If you think Knight is a much better player than just some guy getting dunked on over and over (SPOILER — he is), and you focus on the fact that the 6-foot-3 guard is still just 23 years old and is still getting better, then you can take some solace in the fact that the Suns got a major producer back. Take a look at the comparison:

Player	Season	Age	G	MP	FG%	3P%	2P%	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Goran Dragic	2014-15	28	52	33.4	.501	.355	.556	.746	3.6	4.1	1.0	0.2	2.2	2.3	16.2
Brandon Knight	2014-15	23	52	32.5	.435	.409	.448	.881	4.3	5.4	1.6	0.2	3.2	1.8	17.8

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/20/2015.

Now if you’re in the other camp — the one that thinks the first rounders are the prize here — I have news for you. The “value” of those draft picks is a crapshoot at absolute best. Trading for picks that have the potential of being top lottery picks can be a huge boon for a team, but that’s not what the Suns did. Instead, they UNLOADED ONE.

Think about it for a minute — are the Cavs lottery bound? Nope. Will the Heat be lottery bound in 2017? Probably not. How about 2021? Who even knows? But the Lakers are no good and that protection gets less and less. That was likely to be a lottery pick.

It’s reasonable to assume the picks that the Suns acquired will be somewhere from 20th through 60th. Let’s look at the last five years to see who the best talent has been coming out of those spots, shall we? These are the 10 best players to come out of those spots, in terms of win shares:

		Per Game	Shooting
Rk	Year	Pk	Tm	Player	From	To	G	PTS	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	2P%	3P%	FT%
1	2011	30	CHI	Jimmy Butler	2012	2015	240	11.2	4.2	1.9	1.3	0.4	.438	.479	.319	.801
2	2011	38	HOU	Chandler Parsons	2012	2015	266	14.4	5.2	3.1	1.1	0.4	.468	.528	.371	.711
3	2011	22	DEN	Kenneth Faried	2012	2015	255	12.0	8.6	1.1	0.9	0.9	.544	.546	.143	.648
4	2011	60	SAC	Isaiah Thomas	2012	2015	262	15.3	2.5	4.6	1.0	0.1	.444	.489	.365	.860
5	2010	23	MIN	Trevor Booker	2011	2015	286	6.5	5.0	0.8	0.6	0.6	.530	.539	.317	.616
6	2010	28	MEM	Greivis Vasquez	2011	2015	346	9.2	2.6	5.0	0.6	0.1	.424	.461	.349	.814
7	2010	40	IND	Lance Stephenson	2011	2015	248	9.1	4.6	3.4	0.8	0.1	.449	.504	.300	.666
8	2011	24	OKC	Reggie Jackson	2012	2015	245	9.0	3.0	3.0	0.7	0.1	.431	.489	.288	.872
9	2012	35	GSW	Draymond Green	2013	2015	212	6.1	5.2	1.8	1.1	0.8	.400	.451	.313	.701
10	2010	39	NYK	Landry Fields	2011	2015	246	7.0	4.4	1.7	0.9	0.2	.474	.521	.332	.666

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/20/2015.

The absolute best that Sarver and company can hope for is a combination of Knight continuing to improve and hitting it big with those late round picks. It’s akin to sitting at that big, bright slot machine with the huge jackpot — hey, it could happen!

At the end of the day, if you think the Suns acquired the players and assets who will turn the franchise into a championship contender, then maybe you’re less Santoro and more like this guy:

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