Portland Trail Blazers: 5 Trends To Keep An Eye On After The All-Star Break
By Aaron Mah
- Will The Real Damian Lillard Please Stand Up?
For a stretch during the month of December, Damian Lillard looked and played like the Blazers’ best player.
He was absolutely appointment television whenever the Blazers were down midway through the fourth quarter. Most notably, that’s when Lillard would start unleashing an avalanche of 30-foot pull-up threes.
In addition to his dead eye 3-point shooting, Lillard also finished at the rim — a weak spot in Dame’s game for the better part of his brief three-year career — more efficiently than ever. In fact, when the calendar year of 2014 had concluded, Lillard was averaging 21.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game on, most importantly, 54.3 percent eFG% and 59.7 percent TS%, per Basketball-Reference.
However, 2015 has not been nearly as kind to Dame. More specifically, he has averaged 21.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game on an uninspiring 45.0 percent eFG% and 51.4 percent TS% over the last 20 games. In addition, his assist rate has declined while his turnover percentage has risen over said stretch.
While the bricks he has been throwing up from the perimeter may be the causality of a slump, his regression concerning his ability to finish at the rim is most likely here to stay.
Explicitly, in November, Lillard converted on over 58.7 percent of his attempts from eight feet and in, and similarly, his newfound competency carried over as he completed 57.4 percent of his shots from said area during December, per NBA.com.
However, in January, Dame’s at the rim percentage dipped all the way down to 49.5 percent; nearly identical to his conversion rate of 46.9 percent from the season prior.
Similarly, his 3-point percentage has dropped from 42.9 percent and 35.7 percent in November and December, to a lowly 28.1 percent in January.
To make matters worse, shooting problems aside, Dame has simply tried to do too much during this period of recession. Most notably, his field goal attempts have risen from 14.5 and 18.3 in November and December, to 18.9 in January despite scoring at a TS% of 49.0 percent.
Additionally, he has failed to compensate for his inefficient scoring in other areas of the game. In fact, in January, he posted his lowest assist rate and highest defensive rating. And while, individual defensive rating is an inherently noisy stat, Lillard’s regressed defensive play has much to do with the Trail Blazers’ downturn on that end of the floor during said month.
Specifically, Lillard had been doing an admirable, and much improved when compared to last season, job at defending the point of attack; pestering opposing ballhandlers, forcing them to one side of the court, while staying tight to their hips in an effort to discourage the pull up three.
However, Dame has fallen in love with making the game changing play, and has gambled too often lately; thereby, leaving the rest of the defense vulnerable.
Whether or not Lillard regain his outside touch is inconsequential, as Dame has the ability to contribute in other ways — namely, through playmaking and conservative defense.
The threat of Lillard is enough to inspire material fear on opposing defenses, especially during playoff time. As such, he must leverage his scoring and create for his teammates consistently by the time the post season starts.
Next: 3. Will The Blazers Actively Look To Add Veteran Pieces