Jimmy Butler: On Pace To Become Rare Genuine Most Improved Player

The NBA’s Most Improved Player Award has historically failed in its effort to earn much credence with the general public.

For one, the award had been improperly named, as the winner is often a player who either enjoyed a sizable spike in minutes, or had taken a larger role within the team’s offense; as opposed to someone who genuinely made strides to increase his aggregate impact under a similar set of circumstances.

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However — with all due respect to Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Anthony Davis — the Most Improved Player this year, Jimmy Butler, authentically defines what the award should be all about.

Playing roughly the same amount of minutes as last season, Butler has managed to increase his points per game by over seven points, his rebounds by one, and raise his shooting percentages across the board.

In addition, he has managed to raise his assist percentage while lowering his turnover rate, and all of his advanced metrics — from his PER to WS/48 (win shares per 48 minutes) — have gone through the roof.

To put Butler’s improvements into perspective, here is a table summarizing his statistical spikes when compared to the winners from the past five seasons:

Interestingly, Butler joins Dragic and Granger as the only players on the above list to increase every statistical category while playing a similar amount of minutes. And unlike Dragic and Granger, who both had the proverbial keys to the car handed to them, Butler has undergone his immense progression while playing with two established offensive stars — specifically, with the re-return of Derrick Rose and the offseason addition of Pau Gasol.

Which begs the question: how did Butler transform from an offensively handicapped defensive specialist into a budding two-way All-Star? Let’s examine his areas of improvement.

Shooting and Shot Selection

For years, his nickname, “Jimmy Buckets”, was somewhat of an oxymoron since Butler had a hard time getting buckets due, in large part, to his broken jimmy (jumpshot).

In fact, prior to this season, Butler had always been a reluctant shooter, and for good reason.

More explicitly, over his first three seasons as a pro, Butler converted on only 42.5 percent of his shots, 30.9 percent of his treys, and produced a middling 46.8 percent eFG% (effective field goal percentage) — well below the league median in all three shooting categories.

Butler, in many ways, was your prototypical modern day 3-and-D wing. To be more specific, Butler primarily scored off of catch-and-shoot threes — generated by coach Tom Thibodeau’s point guard friendly penetration and kick system — and timely cuts towards the rim.

Take for instance last season, when 34.6 percent of Butler’s shot attempts derived from behind the 3-point line, despite shooting an atrocious 28.3 percent from the land of the great beyond. In addition, approximately 98.5 percent of his three-point field goals were assisted on, and 30.0 percent of said attempts were from the corners, where Butler converted them on an impressive 43.3 percent rate, per Basketball-Reference.

It is also worth noting that 69.1 percent of his field goals last season were made off of an assist, 38.5 percent were off of catch-and-shoot opportunities, and 36.8 percent of his shot attempts were from 10 feet and in, according to NBA.com’s SportVu Data.

Comparatively, only 63.4 percent of his field goals are assisted on this season, where 27.6 percent of his shot attempts are created catch-and-shoot opportunities, while 43.3 percent derive from 10 feet and in.

When assessing Butler’s shot charts from this season, compared to last’s, his advancement as a shooter becomes abundantly clear. His current shot chart is much more colorful and lively when slated next to red-stained one of yesteryear.

In particular, Butler has become a much better shooter from the midrange areas of the floor. As a result, it has allowed him to operate efficiently from the high/pinch post, as he can leverage his improved jumper to get all the way to the rim to, either, finish or draw a foul.

His improved in-between shooting has also freed Thibodeau to occasionally run Butler off of pin downs and dribble handoffs, where not only is he a threat as a jumpshooter in such situations, but Butler can also use the play as a decoy and cut towards the basket.

More explicitly, Butler shot 37.5 percent and 35.8 percent from 8-to-16 feet and 16-to-24 feet, respectively, last season, per NBA.com. This season, however, Jimmy has converted on 45.3 percent and 40.5 percent of his shots from the two aforementioned areas.

Accordingly, Butler is attempting 36.3 percent of his field goal attempts this season from 8-to-24 feet, where in contrast, only 29.0 percent of his shots derived from said area last season.

Alternatively, he has significantly cut his reliance on the three-point shot down. In fact, only 21.2 percent of his shot attempts this season have come from beyond the arc. He has grown especially comfortably shooting three-pointers on the wing, particularly in catch-and-shoot situations.

As such, his three-point percentage has spiked to 34.2 percent this season, driven in large part by his judicious selection.

In combination with his new-found shrewd shot selection, Butler has also tightened up his shot mechanics this season. In years’ past, Butler would do his best Derrick Rose-impression by kicking his feet out as he shot. He has clearly worked on going straight up and straight down on his jumper this offseason and accordingly, the results have been fruitful.

Ball-Handling

To effectively complement his refined shooting, Butler has gradually progressed as a ball-handler as his career has gone along.

While Butler will never be the ball-handling wizard that James Harden or Stephen Curry are, his brand of handles, however, perfectly suits his style of play.

Chiefly, he keeps his dribble low and compact while attacking the basket, allowing him to rip through ferociously as he beats his man off the bounce. Additionally, he is capable of performing such a maneuver while going to his right or left, thereby giving him the ability to operate in the post on both blocks. As well, his skill set makes him a deadly triple threat option in 1-3 pick-and-roll sets.

Not to mention, his tight handle enables him to survey the entire floor while driving towards the basket; as he has developed a knack of identifying hard digs and collapses, not forcing the action, to ultimately make the appropriate drive and kick play.

For this reason, his assist rate is currently at a career-best 13.4 percent while his turnover rate is at a career-low 7.4 percent, per Basketball-Reference.

In addition to his advancement as a playmaker, Butler’s developed handle also empowers him to satisfy his inborn hunger to attack the rim.

Butler has always been a naturally adept off-ball cutter, capitalizing on Joakim Noah‘s rare passing skills as a big. This year, however, Butler is also efficaciously taking defenders off the dribble.

As a result, his drives per game and points off of drives has risen from 3.0 and 1.7 last season, to 5.2 and 3.8, respectively, thus far this season, per NBA.com’s SportVU Data.

Not only is Butler taking it to the basket more frequently than ever, his ability to convert on such attempts has spiked concurrently.

To clarify, as aforementioned, over 43.3 percent of his field goal attempts this season derive from 10 feet and in, where he shoots at a 54.8 percent clip. Conversely, last season, only 36.8 percent of his field goal attempts came from the 10 feet and in areas of the floor, where he only made 51.4 percent of said attempts.

Getting To The Line

So far, Butler’s improved midrange jumper, and propensity to use it as a decoy — in conjunction with his enhanced dribble drive game — to successfully feed his appetite for at the rim attacks, has been thoroughly discussed.

This brings us to, perhaps, the most encouraging and sustainable part of his progression as a player: Butler’s inherent predisposition to live at the line.

Spearheaded by the myriad of ways in which Butler can get to the front of the rim — most notably, through backdoor cuts while utilizing the dribble handoff as a front, speed cuts off of post feeds, diving hard down the middle of the lane as a teammate penetrates along the baseline, as well as straight line drives on the move, or through high post isolation sets — Butler is currently second among wing players in free throw rate (number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt).

Free Throw Rate (FTr) Leaders Among Wings

*Data Courtesy of Basketball-Reference

**Wings defined as players who primarily play the shooting guard and/or small forward positions

Unlike other free throw inducing wings, namely Harden, Kevin Durant and Lou Williams, Butler earns his free throws through his innate thirst for contact — ala Corey Maggette — as opposed to deception and manipulation (i.e. the rip move and the head snapback).

Butler has made the most out of his increased opportunities at unimpeded points, as well. A career 78.1 percent free throw shooter prior to this season, Jimmy has increased his percentage at the charity stripe to 83.4 percent this year.

Not coincidentally, Butler’s true shooting percentage has sky-rocketed this season to 58.1 percent.

Averaging a career-best 20.4 points per game, Butler’s breakout anecdotal point production closely mirrors his improved efficiency as a scorer and penchant at getting to the line — as appropriately demonstrated through the graph below:

Most importantly, his elite free throw rate ensures the viability of his current production.

Particularly, unlike last year’s breakout wing, Paul George, whose offensive production was driven in large by his outlandish early season success off of long twos — only to have his temporary shooting prowess proven to be an outlier as the year progressed — nothing from Butler’s expanded game screams anything out of the ordinary, especially his ability to get to the charity stripe.

Butler’s Place Among The League’s Elite

Predictably, with his added responsibilities on the offensive end, Butler’s defensive impact has taken a slight hit.

In fact, according to 82games.com, the Bulls’ defense concedes 3.2 points per 100 possessions less when Butler is off the floor. In contrast, last season, Chicago’s defense, which ranked second in defensive efficiency, gave up over 1.4 more points per 100 possessions with Jimmy on the bench.

Additionally, Butler was ranked seventh among shooting guards in defensive plus-minus (DRPM), at 1.23, last season. Conversely, he is ranked 30th this season, with a DRPM of -0.11, per ESPN.

However, the regression of Butler’s defensive play is most certainly overblown by his defensive metrics. Much of his depicted struggles defensively have to do with Gasol replacing Noah as the Bulls’ backline anchor; and to make matters worse, playing Noah almost exclusively at the four in spite of his gimped leg.

When watching Butler, his on ball defense is still among the league’s elite. Not only is he a renowned vivacious ball denier, his natural physical nature and lateral quicks allows him to stifle the premier offensive swingmen in the NBA. He is particularly effective when defending big, physical wings, such as LeBron James and Joe Johnson, where Butler can utilize his chiseled physique to body up and frustrate his counterparts.

His acumen as a help defender — most notably, his ability to recognize who the shooters are and who to/not to help off of — and timing on his rotations are still on point.

The only noticeable dropoff in Butler’s defensive play is his effort on closeouts — which is understandable considering how many minutes Jimmy plays.

With that being said, no one saw this type of offensive breakthrough coming from Butler. At present, he is among the top-six, concerning wings, in PER, WS/48, and VORP (value over replace player).

League Leaders Among Wings – Advance Statistics

*Data Courtesy of Basketball-Reference

What, perhaps, is most impressive about Butler, is the unassuming nature in which he carries about his business.

He is one of the few wing players in the association who can score 30 without much hoopla. In an era where the emphasis on perimeter scoring is placed on threes, layups, and dunks, Butler’s mid-range scoring, straight line drives, and free throw shooting can go relatively unnoticed.

Furthermore, his stoic demeanor — free of overzealous histrionics, chest thumping, and three goggles — adds to his old school vibe. The only flashy thing about Butler is perhaps his florescent white mouth guard and sweet ’98 Kobe-esque mini-fro.

But, come this offseason, when Butler becomes a restricted free agent, he will undoubtedly receive the undivided attention of all 30 NBA teams. Needless to say, Jimmy Buckets is about to get paid.

Next: 5 Likely First Time NBA All-Stars Next Season

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