Always known as one of the top programs in college basketball, North Carolina finds itself in a bit of a flux. Coming off of back-to-back losses to the ACC’s other elite teams in Louisville and Virginia, the Tar Heels are again in the middle of a jam-packed top half of the conference race.
Beginning the season 6-3, it appeared that UNC’s inconsistencies of last season were back to haunt them. Then the Tar Heels got serious, rattling off 11 wins in their next 12 games, their only blemish being a one-point loss at home to Notre Dame during that run.
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Carolina has been a solid team this year, and one of the biggest differences between this season and last season is experience. The numbers are about the same as they were in 2013-14, but during the 2014-15, UNC has found ways to win games they would’ve lost last season.
Marcus Paige is now a junior and is in his second year of running the Tar Heel offense. Kennedy Meeks, now a sophomore, has lost weight and able to stay on the floor and be more active during his minutes. Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto have come into their own in their roles, being consistent threats on offense and defense.
This Carolina team is far different from last year’s team, though there are still some issues that surround the Tar Heels. Sitting with a 17-6 record, Carolina sits just one game better than the record they held after 23 games last season (16-7). The offensive and defensive averages are on par, but the experience factor has led Roy Williams’ squad to more confidence and a better understanding of each other.
Two-straight losses is not easy to overcome, especially in the ACC that has so much talent at the top of the conference. However, there is a silver lining in this. Carolina no longer has games scheduled against Louisville, Virginia or Notre Dame, meaning they have just two games left against teams in the top six of the ACC standings through their last eight regular season games. Those last two games, though, are against Duke, who poses a new threat that the Tar Heels have likely never seen before.
Duke has implemented a 2-3 zone to counter their guard’s inability to keep their man in front of them on defense. Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook, Duke’s leading men in the backcourt, worry more about getting steals and leading the fast break than they worry about keeping their man out of the paint in man-to-man defenses, which puts more pressure on freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor to be an elite shot altering presence.
This zone, which shocked the nation to see, was installed by Duke on Jan. 17 against Louisville. Though they don’t always stick with it throughout the entire game, the Blue Devils have found success using it, winning crucial road contests against the Cardinals and Virginia. Both of those teams struggle shooting three-pointers, as do the Tar Heels.
UNC shoots just 33 percent from three-point range this season, no single player shoots over 40 percent from beyond the arc and only three shoot above 33 percent. Carolina likes to attack the paint, so Duke is likely to use this new zone to disrupt Carolina. These two teams battle for the first time this season on Feb. 18 at Duke and again Mar. 7 at North Carolina.
Carolina has been a bit of an enigma, once again, this season. Though they are a consistently ranked team and has found its groove this year, several things stand out when comparing their wins and losses.
Ranked 17th in the country in points per game at 78.8, UNC has one of the best, most complete offenses in the country. They’re also second in the nation in rebounding (43.0 per game) and fifth in assists (17.3). The Tar Heels trust each other and battle for boards better than most teams in college basketball do. They’re relative young and hungry to prove themselves, but it’s often not enough.
In UNC’s 17 wins, the Tar Heels average 83.5 points per game and win by an average of 18.3 points. In their six losses, that high-powered offense takes a dramatic hit, averaging just 65.5 points per game and lose by an average of 8.2 points. There’s a reason behind this change in offensive output, and it begins with Paige, Carolina’s top offensive weapon.
Four Tar Heels average double-digit scoring numbers, led by Paige at 14.2 per game. Not the most consistent shooter, he’s shooting just 40 percent from the field overall but hitting 39 percent of his three-point attempts. In wins, Paige has shot 41 percent from the field overall as well from three-point range and averages 13.9 points. In losses, he averages 15.0 points per game while shooting 36 percent from the field and 35 percent from three.
Paige is the go-to man for Carolina, but he sometimes has trouble connecting with his shot and when that happens, the Tar Heels struggle a bit more. This also plays into the rest of the team. If Paige, their top weapon, can’t get it going from the field, then that puts more pressure on the rest of the team to pick up the scoring load. Unfortunately, when Paige is off, so is the rest of the team.
Meeks (12.7), Johnson (11.9) and Justin Jackson (10.0) are the other three Tar Heels to average double-digit scoring numbers, and each averages over 11 points per game in wins and all three shoot nearly 50 percent from he field of better in those wins. In losses, though, only Meeks maintains his double-digit scoring figures at 10.7 while Johnson and Jackson each dip to 8.8 and 6.8, respectively. Their shooting percentages also take a major hit:
| Player | Season Avg. % | % in Wins | % in Losses |
| Meeks | 57.5% | 58.6% | 53.5% |
| B. Johnson | 56.4% | 61.7% | 41.8% |
| Jackson | 46.6% | 49.0% | 38.1% |
While Paige is the one to get the offense going, Johnson and Jackson also struggle in losses, putting more pressure on Paige to get more shots up to try to get UNC back into the games when they fall behind, which is why his shooting percentages fall, taking an average of nearly four more shots per game. Being the top offensive weapon has some pressure added to it, and Paige had done what he can to get those wins back, but he needs some help.
Another interesting factoid is Carolina’s scoring numbers. The Tar Heels have scored less than 72 points in a game just seven times this year, six of them have been in losses. When UNC scores 72 points, they’re almost guaranteed to win the game based on the results of this season. Only Virginia Tech was able to hold the Tar Heels to less than 72 points in a game and still lose. The key to stopping the Tar Heels is keeping them under that magic number.
With eight games left in the regular season and the ACC title still in reach, Carolina’s biggest threat to a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and a shot at the Final Four is themselves. Paige is a great player, but he can’t do it alone. He needs help from the likes of Tokoto, Johnson, Jackson and Meeks. A 17-6 record is nothing to scoff at, but it could easily be much better.
Winning isn’t option in Raleigh, it’s mandatory. Winning hasn’t been the problem, it’s been consistency. UNC has had a solid year thus far, but more can be done, and will need to be done, to end where the Tar Heels want to be: national champions.
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