San Antonio Spurs: What’s The Difference?

The San Antonio Spurs have appeared to struggle this season compared to the previous. Last year they finished with the best record in the league. This year they are tied with the Dallas Mavericks for sixth place in the Western Conference and ninth overall. Speaking with the San Antonio Express News, Tim Duncan sums up the general feeling about the Spurs’ season so far,

“With our depth the past couple of years, we’ve had the luxury of sitting a game here or there. We’re missing a lot of guys, we’re not playing very well, we’re losing games. That’s a luxury we don’t have right now.”

The Spurs brought back every significant contributor from last year’s championship run, so what’s the difference?

Last Year

Before beating the Miami Heat to win the 2014 NBA Finals, the Spurs were 34-13 at this point in the season and tied for the third best record behind the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, at the end of the year their offensive rating of 110.5 ranked seventh in the league while their defensive rating of 102.4 ranked third. They also had a point differential of 7.8 per game.

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The Difference

The most obvious difference is the record, 30-17 compared to 34-13. If they had their same record from last year, they would be sitting in third just behind the Memphis Grizzlies. Instead, at 30-17 there had been rumblings of possibly falling out of the playoffs before going 8-2 over their last 10.

Their defensive rating of 102.1, once again ranking them third, is remarkably similar, per Basketball-Reference.com.

However, their offensive rating has taken a dip. They are 13th in the league with a rating of 106.5. Their point differential has dropped to 4.1 per game as well.

Comparing the Spurs shooting numbers from last year’s first 47 games to this year’s first 47 games, you can see that their overall shooting is down 3.5 percent and their three-point shooting is down 3.1 percent. That leads to them scoring 2.5 fewer points per game.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/30/2015.

Those 2.5 points can make a big difference in the win/loss column, especially if you consider that they are 1-4 in overtime games and lost an additional three games by two points or less. That is a total of seven games where those 2.5 points could have swung the outcome.

(Note: Those overtime games lead to the Spurs playing an average of 49 minutes per game and contributed to the higher free throw totals. Longer games give more opportunities to foul/be fouled and close games lead to intentionally fouling.)

It is also important to keep in mind that their current numbers are bolstered by the fact that they received Kawhi Leonard back from injury before that aforementioned 8-2 run, as our own Andrew Snyder has recently pointed out.

While they have played better of late, their 23-point loss to the Chicago Bulls didn’t have Popovich singing the Spurs’ praises. From Nick Friedell for ESPN Chicago,

“I thought the Bulls were physically and mentally committed to playing a great game. And I thought our play was humiliating and embarrassing because of the Bulls’ tenacity and sense of purpose.”

Normally when a coach talks about “tenacity,” they are speaking mainly about the defensive end and rebounding. In this particular game they allowed the Bulls to shoot 47.4 percent from the floor and were out-rebounded by seven. Defense hasn’t been the problem on most nights, but what about rebounding?

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/30/2015.

This year the Spurs are out-rebounding their opponents by 1.4 boards per game. Last year that margin was only 0.6, meaning they are rebounding better this year compared to last.

However, their raw rebounding numbers might be a little bit deceiving for two reasons.

One, those overtime minutes also mean extra opportunities for rebounds. More minutes, more shots, more rebounds.

Two, the fact that they are shooting a lower percentage from the field means there are more offensive rebounding opportunities.

Instead of looking purely at rebound totals, rebounding percentage gives a better idea if the Spurs are actually rebounding better or if they are just grabbing more because there are more available to grab.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/30/2015.

Percentage wise the Spurs are rebounding 0.8 percent better than last year at this time. Better, but not enough to make much of a difference. Considering their defense is third in the league and they rebounding just as well as last year, we can cross those off the list of reasons this season feels so different for the Spurs than last.

Offense

That places the blame squarely on the offense. The well-oiled machine that picked opponents apart hasn’t been quite as well-oiled.

It takes consistency, precision and timing to be able to do this:

The Spurs have struggled to score with the same precision in part because they haven’t been able to play together. It takes time and repetition to develop the kind of chemistry to know where each player will be at and what they will do at a given point. Key players have missed time, disrupting rotations and creating mix-and-match line-ups.

From Michael Lee of the Washington Post:

"Popovich has used 23 starting lineups through 42 games this season, which is tied with the woeful New York Knicks for most in the NBA."

Check out the difference in the number of games played by these key players from last season to this season. Per Basketball-Refernce.com,

That is 78 total games less than last year by key starters and rotation players. No team is going to be the same with their best players missing that many games. It’s a small miracle that the Spurs have been as good as they have been without them for long stretches.

The other issue is that when they are playing, they aren’t hitting shots at the same rate as they were last year.

Even some of the Spurs that haven’t missed significant time have struggled shooting the ball this year. Manu Ginobili is shooting 41.7 percent compared to 45 percent, Danny Green is shooting 41.7 percent opposed to 43.2 percent and Boris Diaw is down to 45.1 percent after shooting 56.3 percent.

Only Ginobili and Parker are shooting better from three, the rest have dropped from behind the arc as well.

Something to note is the team assists per game have not dropped in proportion to their shooting woes.Last season they were averaging 24.9 assist per game at this point, this season they are averaging 24.3 per game, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The team simply isn’t finishing plays the same way they were last year.

In the same piece by Lee, “Nothing seems to be easy for us this year,” Ginobili said. The offense that the Spurs made look easy last year has been work this year.

Part of that is continuity and part of that is simply hitting shots. The popular saying is, “It’s a make or miss league.” The game is easier when shots are falling.

All things considered, the only real difference is missed games and missed shots—which are two pretty big things. Defense, rebounding and passing all seem to be in place. The Spurs track record and the players individual track records would suggest that they will get into a rhythm and those shooting numbers will come up, provided they are healthy.

Duncan

Perhaps the most amazing thing about the Spurs’ season so far is how Tim Duncan has been playing. Known for consistency through out his career, this season is one more notch in the legacy he has carved. With all of the players in and out of the lineup around him and the inconsistent shooting from the rest of the team, he has been a steady presence on both ends of the floor.

He is well deserving of his recent All-Star selection. Look at Duncan’s stat line from last year compared to this year:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/30/2015.

The Spurs have been able to weather these early season struggles by putting forth a team effort on a nightly basis and the consistency of Tim Duncan. Once the other cylinders start firing in-time, the well-oiled machine will be riding smooth again.

There are certainties in life. The sun rises and the sun sets. Tim Duncan plays basketball and the Spurs contend for titles. Scientists say that one day the sun will die. NBA analysts say that one day Tim Duncan will retire and the Spurs will have to rebuild. These two things will probably happen around the same time, sometime in the year 2255. I guess we should enjoy them while we can.

Next: Tim Duncan: Deserving All-Star