Washington Wizards Super Bowl Prop Bet Picks

On Saturday, Jan. 31, at 7 p.m. the Washington Wizards (31-16) host the Toronto Raptors (31-15) with the second-best record in the NBA’s Eastern Conference on the line.

Less than 24 hours later the New England Patriots (14-4) will take on the Seattle Seahawks (14-4) in Super Bowl XLIX (quick sidebar, how ridiculous does “XLIX” look?).  For serious sports gambling enthusiasts, the option to bet on both games simultaneously is available.

If you’re a die-hard Wizards fan who also can’t help putting some money down on the Super Bowl, here’s your chance to win big.

Bet No. 1: John Wall‘s points vs. Russell Wilson’s completions (+0.5)

According to the line, Wall can be expected to score roughly half a point more than the number of completed passes Wilson will throw.  Breaking down the numbers, Wall is averaging 17.2 points per game this year.  In 16 regular season games Wilson averaged 17.8 completions.  Based on those stats it would appear the oddsmakers got the 0.5 spread backwards.

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Digging a little deeper, in two contests so far this postseason Wilson averaged just 14.5 completions per outing. Obviously two games is a small sample size, but playoff performance is also likely to be a better barometer for predicting what happens in the Super Bowl.

On the other hand, there is good reason to believe Wall may eclispe his season scoring average on Saturday.  It’s a big game against a quality opponent, something that is sure to inspire the Wizards’ best player.  Also worth noting is the point guard who Wall will be going against, fellow East All-Star starter Kyle Lowry.

Over 13 games in which the two have gone head-to-head in their careers, Wall is averaging 19.5 points. Wall should exceed his scoring norm, while Wilson may well throw fewer completed passes the usual.

The pick: Wall -0.5

Bet No. 2: Bradley Beal‘s points vs. the Patriots’ total points (-8.5)

Beal is scoring 13.7 points per game this season.  The Patriots averaged slightly more than 29 points per game over their 16 regular season contests. In two playoff outings New England upped its scoring to 40 points per game. Either number makes the Patriots look like a clear favorite to outscore Beal.

However, the major factor that must be also taken into account is Seattle’s defense.  The Seahawks allowed only 15.9 points per game over the course of the season.  That number increased slightly to 19.5 in the postseason.  Combining each team’s 18-game totals, the Patriots post an average 30.4 points, while Seattle gives up 16.3.

In order to estimate what New England will score in the Super Bowl, we’ll split the difference and arrive at a 23.4.  That number would still make the Patriots winners at -8.5 if Beal puts up his season average.  But like Wall, Beal may also be slightly more motivated than usual taking on the Raptors for conference bragging rights.

Washington’s shooting guard has played against Toronto on seven previous occasions in his three-year career.  His average scoring output in those games is 16.9.  Using that total as a reference, Beal +8.5 looks like a winner.

The pick: Beal +8.5