Making The All-Star Case For Dwyane Wade Over Kyle Korver

There is a segment of NBA fans that have made the case that Kyle Korver deserves an All-Star bid over Dwyane Wade. Why? Because, as they say, Korver has had the better year.

But one would hardly look at the two players’ style and say that they play a similar style. Korver is a shooter of the highest degree. Wade is a slasher who has reformed his ways to become a crafty scorer. Instead of dunks, now he has made the transition to lay-ups and post-ups.

But how is it that Korver enthusiasts make the case for him over Wade?

Korver is averaging 13 points per game, 4.2 rebounds per game and 2.9 assists per game. In the meantime, his shooting numbers have been astronomical. He is shooting 51.8 percent from the field, 53.4 percent from three-point range and 92.3 percent from free-throw range. As far as shooting the basketball goes, he is as good as it gets.

To put it in perspective, the next best three-point shooter in terms of percentage is Courtney Lee, who has shot 133 less three-point attempts this season.

His RPM (Real Plus-Minus) this season is 5.29, which is second amongst shooting guards only behind James Harden, and his WAR (Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to determine the amount of wins each player contributes to their team) is 6.75, which is again, trails only James Harden for shooting guards.

What do we make of this? The metrics seem to be on the side of Korver.

Unfortunately, where metrics fall prey to narrative generation, sometimes common sense and watchful analysis might help. This season, Wade is averaging 21.4 points per game, 5.4 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game. He has shot 48 percent from the field and 73.6 percent from the free throw line.

If you’ve watched Miami’s season at all, you know that there’s been a dramatic toll due to injuries. I have written on this space about them ad nauseam.

Chris Andersen has missed 16 games this season. Chris Bosh has missed eight games. Luol Deng has missed four games which will soon be five because he will miss the game against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Josh McRoberts has missed nearly all season. Hassan Whiteside is a recent addition to the team, which can easily be forgotten in light of his success on this part of the season. Danny Granger has missed 21 games.

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This isn’t simply an excuse as much as it is a diagnostic of the issue. Bosh has recently said, in a report by ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh, “I just want to play with our whole team, just once.” All of these injuries have forced Wade to play multiple positions, being a wearer of different hats.

At points in the season, Wade has had to play point guard, shooting guard and small forward to make up for the lack of depth in these positions. Korver has the benefit of playing with three other legitimate All-Stars while Wade has had the shreds of a team.

“I just want to play with our whole team, just once.”

Korver plays outside, collecting baskets as a result of pressure given to other players. Wade doesn’t have that benefit, and never has. At his age, and in his place in his career, he still has the pressure put on him, usually playing the other team’s best defender.

But, and here is where the narrative-building metrics can be in Wade’s corner, he is still boasting a Player Efficiency Rating of 22.55, a Value Added of 203.1 and Estimated Wins Added of 6.8. Where are Korver’s numbers for this? Korver’s PER is 15.97, his VA is 121.1 and his EWA is 4.0.

As you can see, even though Wade gets all the pressure, he is still performing at an elite level. His PER is top 15 in the league. In terms of value added to his team, Wade is fourth amongst shooting guards, only behind James Harden, Jimmy Butler and Klay Thompson. You probably already picked those three ahead of Wade in the All-Star game. But to suggest that Kyle Korver is an All-Star shows how far the narrative has spun.

Korver’s numbers from last season are nearly identical. His shooting percentages are up, but in actuality, not that much higher. Look at the amount of shots per game he has made and attempted this season, from three-point range or two-point range, and you’ll see that they are nearly the same. But what has changed?

Atlanta is winning.

As Jalen Rose says, winning is everything. And if a team is winning, people will always support the players on the team. But making Korver attributable to the Atlanta Hawks’ newfound surge would be a mistake. A player plays largely the same between this season and last, yet that team plays much better. Am I to say that the player was the result? Hardly. That type of logic is only found in Lewis Carroll stories.

The core nucleus of players were largely intact last season. Atlanta had Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll on their starting lineup. Korver was an elite shooter last season, Carroll was an elite defender last season, Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap were All-Stars last season. What has truly changed?

Al Horford played 29 games last season, and has played every game this season. That is what has changed. Defensively, he anchors Atlanta, taking the tough assignments while allow Carroll and Teague to gamble for defensive plays. On offense, he demands attention with his midrange shooting and great low post play.

But this piece isn’t about Horford, it is about Korver. Making the argument that Korver deserves an All-Star bid over Wade seems ludicrous if you take into account all I have just said. A last note about metrics. At the end of last season, nearly everybody was willing to write Wade off, especially after a dismal performance in the NBA Finals.

But last season, he had a DRPM of .73, ahead of Klay Thompson who was at -.17. Yet, it was Thompson who got the defensive nod over Wade. Did Wade become a worse defender or did his team get worse defensively? Conversely, did Klay become a much better defender or did his team get a lot better defensively? Thompson is now at .98 and Wade is at -1.32.

Do you see how metrics can sometimes blur the story? You have the facts, now make your choice.

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