Phoenix Suns: Their Strength Keeps Them From Being Great

The Phoenix Suns are coming off of a 106-98 win over the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night — one that saw the Suns blow another 20-plus point lead. They’re in a bad spot, because what creates those leads often leads to what blows those leads — and it will ultimately shackle them to playoff-but-not championship contenders.

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What makes the Suns great? That’s simple — they have an offense that is as explosive as any in the NBA, as they’ve shown with their 107.3 points per game (No. 2 in NBA) and their 109.5 offensive rating (No. 7). When they get hot, nobody in the league can beat them. In fact, they’re 15-1 (9-0 at home) when they shoot over 50 percent.

But, therein lies the problem.

Teams don’t shoot 50 percent for a season. It’s abnormal for the Suns to cross that 50 percent mark (they’ve been over 16 times, under 31). So, while they can launch an all-out assault of 3-pointers, fast breaks and slashing, pin-point accuracy near the rim, they simply don’t know how to win when those shots stop falling.

Instead of turning 20-point leads into 30-point leads that make the opposition fold up shop, they go cold and allow their opposition right back into the game — on a regular basis.

PACE AND HISTORY

The Suns are currently No. 2 in the league in pace, which in recent times, means death to any championship aspirations they may have.

Head coach Jeff Hornacek acknowledged this last night during his press conference, as he answered a question about his team losing leads. He mentioned that the same thing that gets them those big leads often leads to them losing those leads.

When pressed about how to break that habit, he pointed towards the defensive side of things. Simply put, the Suns are mediocre at best on the defensive end. They allow 105.1 points (28th in NBA), but that’s largely due to pace. The smoking gun is the 107.2 defensive rating, which is just 20th in the league.

Phoenix allows the second-most offensive rebounds in the league (564 in 47 games). They’ve allowed the most free throws (1255) and they allow an eFG% of .500, which is 17th in the league.

Since 2000, the teams who played the highest pace during the regular season couldn’t get it done during the playoffs. Only the championship Laker teams in 2002 and 2009 were in the top-10 in pace — and they had superior defenses to back it up.

BIG PICTURE IS HARD TO SWALLOW

Coach Hornacek is right. You can play a high-paced style but only if you’re also able to clamp down on the defensive end. The Suns do what they can, including forcing a 14.5 percent turnover rate (6th in basketball), but the problem is, when they aren’t forcing those, they’re giving up good looks and trips to the foul line.

To make things worse, the Suns are becoming intoxicated by the success they’re having. Since December 17th, the Suns have the third best record in the league (15-6), just behind the Atlanta Hawks (21-1) and Golden State Warriors (15-4).

Still, during that time, the Suns are allowing opponents to shoot 57.9 percent inside five feet (14th in NBA) — but that’s not the alarming part. The alarming part is that they’ve allowed 682 shots in that area, which is the fifth-most in basketball. That tells me they’re playing some porous perimeter defense and are essentially depending heavily on luck in the form of missed shots.

You’d think their defensive rating would have improved during this stretch, but you’d be wrong. They’ve actually gotten worse in relation to the league, as they’re 22nd in the league in defensive rating (105.0) during that time.

The effects are further reaching, as well. With the Suns inability to lock down the perimeter, they’re being forced to collapse much more than they’d like, opening themselves up to open 3-point looks. During this stretch, the Suns are allowing a league-worst 39.3 percent from 25-29 feet.

CHANGING PERSONNEL OR EXPECTATIONS

With what we’ve seen, does anyone take the Suns seriously as title contenders? I mean, they’re a plucky bunch who can beat any team on any given night, but maintaining it over the span of a series is something that won’t happen without improvement on the defensive end.

We have to be realistic here and temper expectations — or make some wholesale changes. Do we think this team has hit their ceiling and will not improve? Of course not, but with the exception of Bledsoe (and to a lesser extent, Alex Len), there’s no potential two-way superstars here.

Defensively, Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas do what they can, but each have their individual strengths. Coach Hornacek pointed to that when he talked about Bledsoe’s ability to defend one-on-one and Dragic being better at playing within the system. Thomas is undersized and fights, but he has to be protected more than the other two.

P.J. Tucker plays with as much fight and heart as anyone on the team, but he’s another in a tough spot. He’s got a shooting guard’s height, a small forward’s weight and a power forward’s mindset. He’s been great as a swiss-army type of defender, but he’s not the Tony Allen-type stopper this team badly needs.

Markieff Morris is almost the opposite of Tucker — he’s got the length of a power forward but he plays a lot more like a tall small forward. Defensively, he isn’t able to use his length to block shots (just 23 in 47 games) and he’s only averaging 5.7 rebounds per game — not what you’re looking for from your starting power forward.

THE FUTURE IS…CLOSE, BUT NOT NOW

I think the best course of action…is to understand that this is a process. The Suns making (and ultimately being run from) the playoffs this season would be a huge step towards a successful five-year run. The playoffs are a different beast — that’s for sure — and I forsee the Suns getting a taste of that reality.

This offseason, general manager Ryan McDonough has work to do. The makeup of this team provides good value to the fans, will win their fair share of regular season games and will keep Talking Stick Arena (somewhat) full all season long — but this team can’t compete with the elite right now.

The problem is — you can’t change someone’s DNA. This is an offensive set of players, run by an offensive coach, supported by an owner who longs for the Seven Seconds or Less era when the playoffs were a given. It’s a culture of scoring here in Phoenix, and to change that to a culture of winning, they’re going to need to address personnel and schemes.

Next: Where are the Suns in our latest power rankings?

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