The Predictable Fall Of Trevor Ariza’s Shooting Numbers
After one of the greatest seasons of his career, the Houston Rockets signed Trevor Ariza in hopes to fill the void left by Chandler Parsons‘ departure on the wing. Halfway through the season, betting on Trevor Ariza’s back-to-back near-career seasons seems to have been a mistake.
Contract Year Trevor Ariza — which the Rockets thought was a myth — is very real.
The greatest trick Trevor Ariza ever pulled was convincing the Rockets that Contract Year Ariza didn’t exist.
— TOM MARTIN (@LetItFlyTom) January 22, 2015
During the first half of the season the second-best shooter (allegedly) on the Rockets has shot at a .442/.324/.852 rate per game while attempting virtually the same number of shots as he did last season; 2013-14 – 11.1; 2014-15 – 11.4.
However, during the 2013-14 season Ariza shot at a .509/.407/.772 rate. Thus resulting in a slight dip in his scoring per game numbers, from 14.4 in 2013-14 to 12.4 in 2014-15.
Throughout the ongoing season, Trevor Ariza’s 32.4-percent shooting from beyond the arc is good enough for the 24th best shooting percentage among players with at least five three-point attempts per game.
Twenty-fourth out of 27.
| Shooting | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Season | 3P% |
| 24 | Trevor Ariza | 2014-15 | .324 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/26/2015.
By comparison, last season’s .407 was good enough for sixth out of 28 for players who had five or more 3-point attempts per game.
Still, even though his 3-point shooting percentage is down from last season (from .407 in 2013-14 to .324 in 2014-15) and he’s been bad from beyond-the-arc, Trevor Ariza is still making the same number of threes per game as he did last season, 2.3, thus helping his points per game stay slightly above his career-average of 9.9.
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Now, for perspective’s sake, let’s put both forwards side-by-side in order to find out how good, or bad, of a move was Parsons’ replacement with Ariza for the Rockets.
1. MONEY
Chandler Parsons’ departure was largely fueled by the Houston Rockets’ decision to let him hit the open market as a restricted free-agent in hopes they could shed Parsons’ $900k salary and sign a top free-agent. Be that Chris Bosh or Carmelo Anthony.
Consequently, in true billionaire fashion, Dallas Mavericks‘ owner Mark Cuban upped the ante and offered Parsons a sweet 3-year/$46 million dollar deal that would’ve crippled the Rockets’ depth and cap space if they even thought about matching.
Therefore, by taking over Trevor Ariza’s ongoing Washington Wizards 4-year/$32-million deal the Rockets saved a whopping $7.3-million per year.
2. OFFENSE
2014-15 Chandler Parsons:
2014-15 Trevor Ariza:
Even though he shoots a full 4 percent worse, Ariza has made 102 3-point shots during the season. Edging Parsons by 15. Nevertheless, when the Rockets signed Ariza they hoped he could pick up where he left off last season in which he made 41-percent of his 443 3-point attempts.
At this rate, Ariza will eclipse his career-high 3-point attempts by 132, while making the same number of 3-pointers as last season, 180. Whereas, if he’d kept his 40.7-percent from last season, he’d be making 52 more.
By 2013-14 numbers, Ariza would’ve been second in the NBA in 3-point shots made only behind arguably one of, if not the, purest scorer the league has ever seen, Stephen Curry — 232 and 261, respectively.
With 37-games to go, the Houston Rockets are 6.5 games behind the Golden State Warriors for the first-seed in the Western Conference, and only one game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the sixth seed.
Thus, even the slightest setback on offense or defense could eventually cost the Rockets their spot in the Western Conference playoffs putting an end, sooner rather than later, to a very promising season for them.