If the college basketball season ended today, the Virginia Cavaliers would win the ACC regular season title, becoming back-to-back champions. Before the season, few would have expected that to be the case.
Duke was a popular choice, I picked North Carolina, and some thought that new entrant to the league, Louisville, would welcome themselves to the party with an ACC championship. What about Notre Dame? No one, myself included, could have predicted the kind of run the Fighting Irish would go on to start the season.
Last season Notre Dame struggled, and that’s putting it kindly. After losing their leading scorer, Jerian Grant, to an academic issue, they stumbled to a 15-17 record failing to reach any kind of postseason. It was the worst season in Mike Brey’s career and ended a streak of four consecutive NCAA tournament appearances.
Flash forward to today and things are looking much brighter in South Bend. After a Sunday victory on the road at NC State, Notre Dame is currently sporting a 19-2 record (7-1 in the ACC). Their only losses on the season are to Providence by a single point back in November, and a close home loss to Virginia.
They are a single game behind Virginia in the loss column, but with a head-to-head victory, the Cavaliers would win the league in the event of a tie.
Notre Dame’s success is due in large part to their elite offense. The last few weeks they have been trading the top spot in the country in offensive rating with Wisconsin. Notre Dame has wrangled that distinction back from the Badgers with an offensive rating of 125.3.
They are also second in the country in field goal percentage at 52.6 percent, and score 81.9 points per game. Much of that is thanks to the return of Grant. Heading into Sunday’s game at NC State, Grant was leading the Irish in scoring with 16.8 points per game on 51.8 percent shooting. He can also do things like this .
He is not just a scorer, he leads the ACC in assists with 6.4 per game. Grant’s scoring and play-making ability are complemented perfectly by an assortment of lights out shooters on the perimeter. Grant came through when Notre Dame needed him most Sunday night against NC State.
He would go on to score 25 points in the overtime, road victory leading to some glowing praise from head coach Mike Brey, “I know they talk about the big guy as the player of the year, but you know, No. 22 is every bit a player of the year candidate,” said Brey. “He’s fabulous, and tonight he was a top 10 pick.”
Comparing Grant to Okafor may seem like hyperbole, but Grant is just as important to Notre Dame’s success as Okafor is to Duke’s.
The four-guard offense Grant leads creates match-up issues galore for opposing defenses thanks to their barrage of three-point shooting and Grant’s pick and roll two-man game with Zach Auguste.
Auguste’s impressive screening ability is an underrated part of their offensive attack. His ball screens, and off ball screens, create the space that allows Pat Connaughton, Steve Vasturia, and V.J. Beachem to knock down wide open shots.
Despite their offensive ability, Notre Dame’s defense may keep them from winning big during March Madness. That four guard lineup does not translate as well to that side of the ball. Their defensive rating is a disappointing 95.6 which is 87th in the NCAA.
Their offensively talented guards do not excel defensively. They have trouble stopping dribble penetration, and with only one big man in their starting five, they can also get bullied down low. That may not matter in the ACC, as Duke is the only team with a dominant scoring big man.
That poor defense showed up early against NC State. NC State shot a sizzling 62.1 percent in the first half, knocking down four three-pointers. The Wolfpack also exploited their size advantage down low. BeeJay Anya, Kyle Washington, and Abdul-Malik Abu combined for 19 points in the first half, thanks to an aggressive game-plan, intent on pounding the ball inside against Notre Dame’s shorter defenders.
The Irish fought back in the second half for a 81-78 overtime win, but it would not have been such a nail-biting game if the defense showed up in the first half.
So far, the poor defense and short bench has not come back to bite them, but it just takes one cold shooting game in the NCAA tournament to end their season, short of their lofty goals. It feels like they are the type of team that can beat any team in the country, but could also lose to any team in the country.
Their season could end in the Final Four or the second round. Notre Dame fans better load up on the antacid before March.