Why Boston Celtics Must Be Patient
By Wally Hughes
The Boston Celtics look to be big players in this year’s free agency — but here’s why they should use caution.
The dust is settled, for now.
After weeks of being active on the trade market, the Celtics camp has all of a sudden been silent. Maybe they are planning their next move, or maybe they have decided to stand pat until free agency hits after the season.
Either way, the team will have something it has never had before in free agency: cap space. Yes, the Celtics will have money to spend, and plenty of it.
How much?
In a recent column, Bleacher Report’s Michael Pina outlined just how much cap space Boston will have this offseason:
"Assuming the 2015-16 season’s salary cap is $66.3 million, the Celtics currently have roughly $32.9 million to spend this summer, and nothing except Bradley’s deal beyond that. This does not include draft picks or cap holds, but it does include Wallace’s $10.1 million contract. Remove that, and nearly $43 million in cap space is a fun thing to dance with."
That’s a lot of greenbacks, and the Celtics will certainly be tempted to use it to sign some big-name free agents this summer. But is that the smartest move? The answer might surprise you.
Contrary to popular opinion (Boston fans expect quick results), it might actually hurt the Celtics to be big spenders in this year’s free agency. As a matter of fact, they might be better off saving that money for later, and stumbling through another season of irrelevance.
Why? There are a few reasons.
The 2015 Free Agent Class is Overrated
The 2015 free agency class features a lot of guys who are going to be overpaid.
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Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying, because these players are above-average players. Some are even stars.
But that doesn’t mean they are good enough for a team to throw a max contract at them, yet each year you see some team offer a head-scratching contract to a player that never lives up to salary expectations.
Eric Gordon, Josh Smith and Roy Hibbert are perfect examples of this phenomenon. All are good players who can be valuable assets to a team when utilized in a proper role, but they are also immensely overpaid for various reasons.
This year’s crop of free agents are no different. Those who are likely to be available, such as Goran Dragic and DeAndre Jordan, will be overvalued because of the weak market.
The Celtics must be smart in free agency to avoid any long-term financial burdens. All things considered, there are only three unrestricted free agents who are worth a max-contract in this year’s free agent class: LeBron James (if he opts out), LaMarcus Aldridge and Marc Gasol.
Everybody else, including Kevin Love, is a tier below these individuals and will likely cost more than they are worth. Unless Boston can sign a second-tier player to a bargain deal, it should stay away from these individuals.
If Boston cannot land one of the above-mentioned superstars with a max offer, its next best option is to stand pat and save cap space for the 2016 free agent class, which is much more talented.
The 2016 Free Agent Class is Loaded
As bad as the 2015 free agent class is, the 2016 class is the total opposite. Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard and Al Horford headline the pool of unrestricted free agents, while budding superstars Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard will both be restricted free agents.
If the Celtics remained patient, the team would have enough money to sign two or more big-names in 2016. If that happened, excitement in Boston would be the highest since Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett teamed up with Paul Pierce.
What are the chances of Boston being able to lure at least one big-name free agent in 2016? Better than you may think. The Celtics will be an attractive destination, offering a big market to go along with a roster filled with young talent and a stockpile of first-round draft picks.
If Boston was somehow able to sign a player like Durant, it would mean the team would be on its way to contending for a championship.
What Boston Should Do
What should Boston do? It should be patient. Rebuilding a team the right way takes time, but is worth it in the end.
It will be tempting for the Celtics to use their extra cap space this offseason to find a quick fix, but time has proved that instant gratification doesn’t exist in the NBA. The team would be much better off to keep that flexibility, secure another lottery pick in the 2016 draft, and then use that cap space to sign impact players in 2016 free agency.
In the meantime, the Celtics should focus on cultivating its young talent and collecting as many assets as possible to build toward the future.
Returning the Celtics to relevance will require a healthy balance of building through the draft and free agency. It will also require patience, which is something Boston fans do not have a lot of.
However, for the sake of their beloved Celtics, they must learn to sit back and enjoy the bumpy ride. Luckily, patience can be learned with time.