NCAA: Who Are The Real Championship Contenders?

Every college basketball fan has started to do the same thing. They open up their internet browser and click on different bracketology sites wondering if their team is in the NCAA tournament and if so where are they projected to be.

Then looking at the projections they start to think how their team can pull a Connecticut and get hot to win six straight games.

Ultimately the NCAA tournament champion shakes out to be a team that no one is truly surprised about. Since 2002 a major program has won the title, with Connecticut being the only real surprise as a No. 7 seed. But, can a program with three title since 2002 be that shocking?

The other reason why the Connecticut win shouldn’t be a surprise is the Huskies were consistent with a trend in champions for the previous 13 years. While NBA fans will say it just takes a “blazing-hot” team to be streaking at the right point is ludicrous.

Since 2002, in order to be a champion you can’t be worse than 40th in either offensive or defensive ranking according to KenPom. On top of that if you do have a ranking 22-39, you must have a ranking in the top 10 in the other category in order to be crowned NCAA men’s basketball champion.

While that sounds confusing, take a look below. It’s also tougher said than done at the collegiate level to be that talented on both sides of the ball. Some people forget there are 351 teams in Division 1 college basketball. In order to win the title you have to finish in the top 11 percent on both sides of the ball!

Note “Offensive Rating” is the estimated amount of points a teams scores per 100 possessions. “Defensive Rating” is the estimated amount of points a team allows per 100 possessions.”

As much as fans think college basketball players are invincible and should be ready to go at a moment’s notice, there’s a reason it’s amateur basketball. Whether personal problems or injuries get in the way, ranking in the top 11 percent on both ends is a special thing.

There’s a reason these are the teams that are champions. A reason why you should consider only those who reach this plateau to be champion contenders.

There’s a reason there’s only six teams that are currently reaching this criteria. Who are they? Are they real contenders?

Current Contenders

Sure, there are Cinderella’s come March. That’s what makes it fun. A team like Butler can make back-to-back championship games. But, there’s a reason there’s not a trophy sitting in Indianapolis with the Bulldogs’ name on it. Those teams were very defensively oriented, rating 55th offensively and second defensively in 2010.

Without balance, you’re too lopsided with the weaker end being exposed come tournament time. What happens if you’re a strong defensive team but your opponent catches fire? The comeback is almost impossible because you can’t score.

In today’s college basketball world there are six teams achieving balance that says they will be contenders come March.

They are the following:

But, if you’re a betting man, take the six teams listed above. There’s a reason those teams are ranked in the top-12 in the most recent AP poll. Each team has a legitimate go-to star player on their roster, something that is needed come March.

Then KenPom rankings fluctuate from day-to-day, but these teams are constantly reaching the numbers they have to in order to be contenders. Keep an eye on the rankings by going to KenPom.com and when it comes time to fill out your bracket remember these numbers.

Again, anything can happen in a one-game situation. But the NCAA tournament is six games and there’s a reason history over the last 13 years haven’t been wrong.

Next: College Basketball Rankings: Top 25 Teams In America