Elfrid Payton: Orlando Magic Rookie Report

When NBA commissioner Adam Silver announced: “With the fourth pick overall in the 2014 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select, Aaron Gordon” — thereby, passing on then-18 year-old phenom, Dante Exum, a consensus top-four prospect of last summer’s draft — many came away shocked and appalled.

Little did they know, however, Rob Hennigan, the general manager of the Orlando Magic, had not-so-secretly (more on that later) had his eyes on another, much-less heralded, point guard, in Elfrid Payton.

After their extensive experiment playing Victor Oladipo, their first round draft pick from the year prior, at point guard last season, the Magic brass decided to slide him back to the two — not necessarily giving up on the idea of Oladipo as a ball-in-hand creator, but to utilize him in the capacity of a secondary ball-handler/combo guard, ala James Harden and Dwyane Wade.

As a result, many draft experts and mock drafts penciled in Exum as the logical choice, and the point guard of the future, for the Magic.

However, presumably after his lone workout with Orlando, Hennigan — a disciple of R.C. Buford in San Antonio and Sam Presti in Oklahoma City — zoned in on Gordon and Payton with their two lottery draft picks.

Acquiring the services of Payton, though, would be more complicated, and a significantly more costly, proposition than initially planned.

More specifically, the Magic had to obtain the draft rights to Payton — who was originally selected 10th overall by the Philadelphia 76ers — for the draft rights to Dario Saric — who was selected 12th overall by Orlando — along with the Magic’s 2015 second-round pick and a conditional 2017 first-round pick; a pick that originally belonged to the Sixers in which the Magic had attained through the Dwight Howard trade.

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Immediately after the draft, many questioned if the collection of assets used to procure Payton was too excessive — especially when considering the fit of Payton alongside Gordon and Oladipo.

In particular, while all three are multi-skilled, long athletic freaks — the trio of lottery picks, coming into their respective drafts, were all considered anemic outside shooters.

Oladipo, however, has improved his range significantly since entering the league, especially on catch-and-shoot situations.

Conversely, Payton shows little promise in that regard, as the 20 year-old rookie continues to be an abysmal free throw shooter — typically, a reliable indicator and predictive of future shooting success — shooting 52.6 percent from the charity stripe.

Thus, it was/is hard to imagine how the Magic can effectively space the floor in a lineup the features Payton, Oladipo, and Gordon, alongside Orlando’s other two franchise cornerstones, in Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic — a lineup that has yet to be utilized by head coach, Jacque Vaughn, thus far this season.

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However, the backcourt of Oladipo and Payton has already bared tangible results, as the two electrifying guards have quickly established a synergistic rapport.

Sharing the bulk of the Magic’s playmaking duties, both Oladipo and Payton play extremely well off of one another; cutting to the basket with conviction when the other serves the ballhandler.  While playing off-the-ball, the two young guards maneuver distinctively, though, and in different areas of the court.

More specifically, Payton usually hovers around the opposite corners, thus, effectively spacing the floor. Then, as Oladipo turns the corner, usually off of a pick-and-roll, Payton will then utilize the baseline as his runway, giving his backcourt mate a viable release valve as the defense collapses.

Meanwhile, Oladipo often spots up on the wing, thereby, leveraging his newly developed spot-up 3-point shooting; and as Payton dices down the middle of the lane to initiate the drive-and-kick game, Oladipo will often start cutting towards the paint, before-the-catch, to successfully combat aggressive closeouts.

As well, Payton has built a similar on-court bond with Magic center, and resident (near) 20-10 man, Nikola Vucevic — in particular, in the two-man pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop game.

The way defenses play Payton as the handler in high PNR situations is unlike any other point guard in the association, sans Rajon Rondo and Ricky Rubio. Most notably, opposing defenses usually choose to go way under the screen, while hugging tight onto the Magic’s contingent of perimeter shooters, namely Channing Frye, Ben Gordon, and Evan Fournier.

As such, Vucevic usually end up setting two screens: one to free Payton into the 10-16 feet area, and another, in a short-roll situation.

In such instances, Payton is already a master at creating unusual angles to, either, flip the ball back to Vucevic for the pick-and-pop J, hit his big diving hard towards the basket, or deliver a slick post entry feed (a lost art) to his sealing center when a switch occurs.

Consequently, the Magic’s offensive efficiency has gradually spiked as the season has gone along.

Spearheaded by Vaughn’s newly instituted quick-paced style, the trio of Payton, Oladipo, and Vucevic have produced an offensive rating of 104.1 and scoring at a true shooting rate of 53.9 percent during the incumbent month of January; up 4.8 points per 100 possessions when compared to their season average.

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Overall, unlike the other point guards of the rookie class — of whom are overly passive or incapable of probing off the bounce — like Exum, Marcus Smart, and Zach LaVine, Payton looks and feels like an NBA floor general.

Most notably, despite the opposition’s plan to let him shoot, Payton can get into the paint at will — thanks in due part to his feline quickness and change-of-pace dribbles.

While he does not possess the yo-yo humiliating style of handle that most elite modern-day point guards have — ala Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry, his wide array of hesitation and stop-and-go moves allows him to weave through tight spaces, explore playmaking opportunities, while keeping his dribble alive.

In particular, his change-of-direction between-the-legs dribble, while probing down the lane, is ultra-effective in setting up his pet floater.

Speaking of his offensive prowess, Payton has also been noticeably more aggressive over the past month. Aided by the Magic’s run-and-gun pace, the rookie is averaging 11.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 6.8 assists on 49.4 percent true shooting and an offensive rating of 103 — raising his production in each category when compared to the proceeding months — since the new calendar year.

Elfrid Payton Statistical Comparison, By Month

*Data courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA Stats

He has been particularly efficacious in driving all the way to the basket, playing the angles, using his body, and utilizing the rim to shield off opposing rim protectors when finishing within the paint. As a result, he’s converting on 50.6 percent of his shots from eight feet and in, thus far, in January; a stark improvement when compared the prior months.

Elfrid Payton Shot Chart Comparison, By Month

November

December

January

* LA = League Average  DST= Percentage of Shot Distribution

** Courtesy of NBA Stats

Payton’s greatest strength and most natural offensive gift, however, is his deft passing ability. Specifically, he has an innate knack of creating unusual angles when setting up his outside shooters and interior finishers. He is an absolute artist when it comes to contorting his body, using an extra dribble towards the baseline, and manipulating defenders (fake a pass to make a pass), to effectively curate an appropriate passing pocket.

As well, Payton has that rare ability to decipher a play before it happens; often whipping pinpoint cross-court passes as he negotiates off of a pick.

Not surprisingly, his current assist rate of 31.6 percent and turnover rate of 21.7 percent compares favorably to the assist and turnover rates of Rondo and Rubio during their rookie campaigns.

Rookie Year Comparisons

* Data courtesy of Basketball-Reference

Defensively, Payton is an absolute pest — particularly, as an on-ball defender. In fact, he’s one of only a handful of NBA players who indiscriminately full-court presses all opposing point guards — regardless if you’re Russell Westbrook or Jeremy Lin.

As a result, his unwavering pressure indirectly causes at least one unforced turnover a game.

Additionally, due to his constant ball-hawking, in conjunction with his lateral quicks and elite length for his position (6-foot-4 in shoes and a 6-foot-8 wingspan), he is the most proficient thief among all rookies; leading the draft class in steal percentage.

And unlike the Corey Brewer‘s and the Russell Westbrook’s, Payton do not rely on avid gambling to accumulate his steals. Instead, he utilizes his active hands and never-ending arms to cause deflections and to pick-pocket opposing ballhandlers — ala Kawhi Leonard and Tony Allen.

Moreover, Payton is already an accomplished help defender; many times helping at the nail to bump diving bigs while stunting at open spot-up shooters. He is also a studious helper, understanding who the shooters are on the opposing team, and prioritizing his closeouts accordingly.

For such reasons, Payton is currently ranked as the NBA’s 3rd best defensive point guard — trailing only John Wall and Stephen Curry, and edging out Rondo and Eric Bledsoe — according to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM) Stat, accumulating a Defensive RPM of 1.95 thus far this season; meaning Payton personally helps shave 1.95 points per 100 possessions off Orlando’s defensive rating, through the context of his role.

ESPN Defensive RPM Rankings

*Data courtesy of ESPN

Like most rookies, however, Payton struggles to consistently defend the pick-and-roll. Namely, at 185 pounds, Payton is often caught while fighting to go under the screen, causing him to be a second or two late on his recovery assignments.

However, he has shown glimpses of competent pick-and-roll defense. Most notably, he locates the screener in a timely manner, and appropriately presses up on the ballhandler, while getting “skinny,” as the pick approaches. As Payton strengthens his core, he should become a menace defending primary ball-handlers in PNR situations.

Meanwhile, his most glaring impediment on the offensive end continues to be his outside shot. At present, approximately 73.2 percent of field goal attempts derive from 10-feet-and-in — an efficient allocation of shots if Payton can develop a Tony Parker-esque repertoire of interior finishes and touch. However, he currently converts on only 45.7 percent on said attempts.

Furthermore, his inability to draw fouls, currently sporting a substandard free throw rate of 27.4 percent, limits his effectiveness as a scorer.

As mentioned earlier, Payton’s finishing ability has incrementally improved by the month, but to truly maximize his rare gifts as a playmaker by keeping the defense honest, Payton must expand his offensive game — either, by developing a spot-up 3-point shot or a consistent pull-up jumper.

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Elfrid Payton is bred from a rare breed of point guards; his competitive nature and unflappable demeanor, combined with his unconventional set of skills, allows him to dominate a game without scoring.

The defense, the passing, and the intangibles will be there, and his impact on the aggregate will most likely be underrated and unquantifiable; but precisely  just how good he ultimate becomes — on the level of Ricky Rubio, an all-star like Rajon Rondo, or an elite upper-echelon superstar like Jason Kidd and Gary Payton — will depend on his development as scorer.

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