LaMarcus Aldridge Out 6-8 Weeks, Could Ruin Portland In West

Terry Stotts and the Portland Trail Blazers thought they could defy health issues, and fight for the top seed in the Western Conference.

Robin Lopez went down due to a right hand injury on Dec. 15, and they were able to survive — and mostly thrive — without their defensive force. Lopez has missed the last 19 games, in which Portland has went 12-7 since losing him.

Yet, they looked strong enough starting Chris Kaman at center. They appeared destined to claim the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the most brutal conference of all-time. That’s pretty impressive, especially for a team that just collected their first playoff series win in 14 years.

Lopez’s injury was the mild rain on the parade.

LaMarcus Aldridge’s latest setback is the storm, flooding Oregon with the most severe pouring they’ve ever experienced in times of optimism.

Aldridge fell victim to a thumb injury during Monday’s game vs. Sacramento, as he only played 14 minutes in the four-point win. His MRI on Thursday revealed that he had a radial collateral ligament tear in his left thumb, according to Yahoo Sports’ Marc Spears. It does require surgery, and Aldridge is expected to miss 6-8 weeks that will allow for enough healing time.

You can always take the later expectation when it comes to these injuries, since it will take him about a week just to get back into the groove of basketball activities. If that’s the case, the Trail Blazers can’t expect him back until March 13-20.

If you’re aware of the constant spewing of talent the Western Conference has displayed for the last five years, this should knock your socks off. It shouldn’t leave you scared for the Blazers. It should leave you petrified.

In the East, you have time to fool around for 50-55 games. You have that leeway. In the West, the only leeway you get is during the first week of the season. Teams adjust to the increased competition from the preseason to regular season, and then the war is on.

Portland, slipping to third in the West after losing five of their last six games, could very well lose the war. It only takes so many lost battles before it gets out of hand.

After shooting just 9-of-28 from beyond the arc in a loss to Boston and scoring just 28 points in the paint, the Blazers are feeling down on themselves. They sit at 31-13 — still stellar — but only five games ahead of the No. 8 seeded Phoenix Suns. Realizing there’s only a five-game difference between No. 3 and No. 8 out West is enough to warrant a heart attack, if you ask me.

Undermining the importance of Aldridge for this team would be a mistake. Behind the young explosion Anthony Davis, Aldridge has been the best power forward in basketball during the 38 games he’s played. It’s striking how similar he’s played compared to last year, averaging the same exact scoring level (23.2 points per game) and still being a double-digit rebounder (10.2 per game).

Except, Aldridge was performing with more efficiency than last year. He’s jumped from a 20 percent 3-point shooter on 15 attempts last season, to a 51.2 percent 3-point threat on 41 attempts this year. Additionally, Aldridge’s win shares per 48 minutes is the highest it’s been since his 2011-12 season (.168) and we’ve also seen his PER at the highest it’s been since that year (22.4). That season was right before Damian Lillard arrived, in a time where Aldridge was the only thing to rely on.

This season, Portland’s frontcourt leader has shifted his game a bit. He’s being more aggressive in the post than last year, and he’s stretching his game out more towards the perimeter. Per NBA.com, Aldridge is taking 3.3 shots per game between 20-24 feet, which is more than his 2.3 per game last season. It doesn’t seem like a huge transformation, but against top-notch, hard-nosed defenses in the West, it’s making a difference in how they handle Portland. As opposed to his 41.1 percent effectiveness on those shots from last year, he’s making 44 percent of those looks now.

Aldridge has basically been the same exact player as last year when it pertains to his comfort level in the post. He’s still taking 7.4 shots per game from inside the paint, which is the same exact amount he took last year — it’s pretty remarkable how someone can be that consistent with their style and approach.

But, the big difference would be his aggression against powerhouse defenders.

After scoring 89 points in two games during the Western Conference first round last April, he realized it’s up to him how far this team can travel in the playoffs. Damian Lillard may be the most impressive young point guard the league can handle, but there needed to be more physicality with Portland’s big men. Aldridge has brought that to his opponents’ attention thus far.

He’s getting to his spots, and majority of the shots he takes are in spots where he’s not forcing. You shouldn’t have to with the dynamic weapons of Lillard, Matthews, and Batum opening things up in the middle. But, when it’s Aldridge’s time to get towards the middle, he surely does it:

Take note at how much space Aldridge has to operate. If it was Zach Randolph with the ball, defenses would throw double teams toward him as soon as he inched closer to the paint. It’s a testament to how poorly other teams have respected Aldridge’s post game, since he’s mainly considered a mid-range jump shooter off screen-rolls.

It’s also indication of how much defenses can’t even afford to send double teams in the post when they play Portland. Lillard and Matthews have combined to hit 251 3-pointers this season, with a combined percentage of 38.4 percent. The Warriors’ prized guards (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson) have combined to hit 239 3-pointers with a combined percentage of 42.2 percent. While Golden State has played four less games than Portland, the point is that this backcourt duo isn’t far behind the “Splash Brothers” when it comes to being perimeter marksmen.

It certainly helps any big man that’s in the paint, bumping bodies with the most bruising defenses each and every night. Aldridge has been more willing (and able) to do it this year:

How many times do you see someone take it to Randolph from within six feet of the basket? It was extremely rare two years ago, and it’s still a very daunting task.

But, just as Aldridge has his bread and butter mid-range shot that can be executed in stand-still or fadeaway motion, he also has a special go-to move in the paint. When he posts up a defender, his main objective is to get toward the outside of that restricted area, and take one hard dribble toward the center of the court. It’s about obtaining balance, and making sure he can get his motion set to go up with his strong right hand.

He’s not extremely comfortable spinning right in that situation, or scoring with a left-handed hook. Typically, it’s always a power move toward the middle, where he can use his height to rise over the defense and get a much clearer look. If you can’t stop it, don’t criticize it.

Is Chris Kaman as reliable? Will Thomas Robinson be able to weather the storm for seven or eight weeks?

It’s not plausible. Not in this conference.

The only slight edge this injury could give Portland is the athletic, more mobile type of player Robinson is on the court. His body is built more for chasing down offensive rebounds. He had six offensive boards and 12 total in the loss to Boston on Thursday. For that, they can eliminate the problem of getting pounded on the glass each night.

Defensively, it may not be too much of a hurdle to overcome for the many weeks Aldridge is nursing the thumb. Yes, he’s extra long and lengthy when covering guys on pick-and-pops. Yes, he’s sturdy enough to hold the best frontcourt players without getting into too much foul trouble. But, he hasn’t been the core reason Portland has thrived defensively.

In his 38 games played, Aldridge ranked just 39th in power forwards when it pertains to defensive real plus-minus, which attempts to place a sole defensive value on a single player for a team. What’s alarming is that his defensive value of +0.55 is only 116th overall in the league, across every position.

It’s alarming in the sense where we fully understand David Lee hasn’t been a solid defender for majority of his career with the Warriors, and Luis Scola has always stood out on the offensive end more than the defensive. What speaks major volume is the fact that Portland is the second-highest team in Defensive Rating, for crying out loud. Stotts has this team allowing just 101.8 points per 100 possessions, which is second only to Golden State.

Much of it has been predicated on the heavy backcourt defense and pick-and-roll coverage. Based on that, if he was truly doing his job proficiently on the defensive end, Aldridge should be in the same breath as the top five defensive power forwards. They didn’t fix what wasn’t broken, I assume.

Is losing Aldridge’s offensive capacity going to do major harm to Portland’s playoff shot?

The crazy part is … it’s actually question now. It’s actually something to discuss, because it’s reality in this league.

Between now and March 13 (when Aldridge may be available), Portland has 20 games. In those 20 games, they are facing teams with a combined record of 460-396, which is a winning percentage of .537.

It’s not entirely brutal until you realize the context of their situation.

In those 20 games, 12 of them will be against current playoff teams, in the East and West. Nine of them (basically half of the 20 games) will be against West playoff foes, which reeks of disaster if you live in Portland. 10 of the 20 will be on the road, so they get a balanced variety in location.

Nothing about this seems fair.

Aldridge was likely going to be voted in by the coaches as a reserve in the 2014 All-Star game. He can still be voted in for the sake of having it on his resume — because the man flat-out earned it — but he won’t be able to participate.

Horrifying things happen to good people.

In this case, it’s nothing tragic or life-threatening … but it’s season threatening. It’s destiny threatening for a team that’s worked harder in the last two years than any Western Conference contender. Who is truly warranted in saying this team survives the five game cushion they have in the playoffs? That could disappear in two weeks.

It’s been a long time coming for the city of Portland. Now, it may have to be even longer.