Phoenix Suns: A Lesson In Expectations
As I cover the Phoenix Suns and the NBA in general, I often have to root myself in some sort of reality. It’s not fair to look at the Philadelphia 76ers and consider them a massive failure, because they have certain expectations. The Suns are no different and surprisingly, it was Gerald Green who put those expectations into words.
After Wednesday night’s thrilling 118-113 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers, Green was asked about how fun it is to be winning games, to which he replied:
"I think the fun part is April. Hopefully we’ll be the ones having fun."
The sting of missing last season’s playoffs by one game still lingers in this lockerroom, but that statement from Green really struck me.
REALISTIC BELIEF
April? The NBA Finals start June 4th. The Western Conference Finals start somewhere from May 17th-20th. The Western Conference Semifinals begin between May 2nd-5th.
Was it simply a slip of the tongue by a player who doesn’t regularly talk to a throng of reporters after each game? Maybe — but I don’t think so. As a young team, the Suns are eyeing making the playoffs as the next logical step in their growth. Teams don’t just come together and win the championship in their first try. As the old saying goes, you’ve got to learn to walk before you run.
It’s a realistic viewpoint for a team that doesn’t have a player with more than seven years of NBA experience — and that’s Green. Goran Dragic and Brandan Wright have six and Eric Bledsoe has four years — everyone else is at three years or less. In a basketball sense, this is a team of toddlers.
TWO STEPS FORWARD, ONE STEP BACK
As a father of a toddler, I feel like the comparison is solid. There’s so much potential, endless amounts of hope and energy and most importantly — a constant changing landscape that includes daily improvements that usually outweigh the expected missteps.
The Suns are experiencing all of those things right now. At 26-18, they are about where we expected them to be, in the thick of the chase for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, being chased by the daunting duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The improvements are obvious — Phoenix is on a run right now where they’ve won 14 of 18 games, including seven in a row at home and four in a row overall. Their losses during that streak include a four-point loss at New Orleans, a three-point loss at Oklahoma City, a five-point loss at San Antonio and a 12-point double-overtime loss at Memphis.
Phoenix has shot over 50 percent as a team four games in a row and haven’t allowed an opponent to shoot over 50 percent in 12 games.
With that, there have been some major issues that have cropped up, mostly in the game.
NO KILLER INSTINCT (YET)
Players and coaches talk about killer instincts all of the time. Maybe we hear about it more in Phoenix because they’ve put themselves in those situations so often.
Coach Jeff Hornacek harps on his team finishing quarters and extending leads. Unfortunately, he regularly watches his team fumble away leads by playing sloppy ball, featuring bad shot selection and a general disinterest once the lead swells to a comfortable amount. Take a look at this:
- 1/21 vs. Portland — blew 25-point lead, down five at one point, won by 5
- 1/19 vs. Los Angeles — watched 19-point lead shrink to six in fourth quarter in 3.5 minutes
- 1/13 vs. Cleveland — turned 19-point lead into two-point deficit in 6 minute stretch
- 1/9 at San Antonio — 7-point lead turned to 2-point deficit in 3 minutes, lost by 5
Those examples are just a small sample of the lack of killer instinct the Suns have had. There’s a point where each coach breaks — they decide enough is enough and they bring in the subs. The Suns can’t seem to get to that spot and end up going cold, letting teams back into it.
How do you develop that instinct? I believe it’s largely a function of their coach and how he and his staff keep players engaged. It’s taking timely timeouts, it’s making the right substitutions and it’s making adjustments during the game.
The San Antonio Spurs trio of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are fantastic — but don’t think for a second that coach Gregg Popovich didn’t have a LOT to do with it.
Sure, the Suns have ended up winning these games, but there are some far-reaching effects that won’t fully show themselves until later in the season.
THE EFFECT OF COMEBACKS
Each win counts the same in the standings, but not every game takes the same toll on a player’s body. I’m a big believer in the effect of progressive fatigue, as players pile up the minutes. That goes for not only physical aspects, but mental aspects as well.
Similar to a golfer with the yips, basketball teams can get into that “oh no, not this again” mentality when a team starts to make a run against them. That kind of stress not only hurts confidence, but it forces coaches to play starters more minutes than they’d like.
Don’t you think coach Hornacek would have loved to sit Dragic, Alex Len, Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas for the fourth quarter last night? Instead, they had to use all the energy they had to scratch and claw back into the game, staring at a five-point deficit with less than three minutes in the game.
Now, multiply those efforts many times over. In 2013-14, the Suns ran out of gas late in the season. They controlled their own fate and simply couldn’t take care of business when they needed to. They lost close games to San Antonio, Dallas and Memphis in the final week of the season to miss the postseason.
CAN THIS YEAR BE DIFFERENT?
If this year feels eerily similar to last season, well, it is. The Suns are winning games they’re supposed to (17-7 vs sub-.500 teams), but they’re struggling in close games (2-6 in games decided by three points or less), they’re not above water against teams with a record of .500 or better (9-11) and they’re winless in overtime (0-4).
The 2013-14 season was the same thing, as the Suns were just 2-9 in games decided by three points or less, which was the worst in the ENTIRE NBA. They took care of business against bottom-feeders (30-9) and were just 18-25 against the elite teams.
The key to turning it around for the Suns is two-fold — they can either rely on their late-game execution to close out teams (see above: ERIC FREAKING BLEDSOE) or they can do a better job throughout the game to avoid putting themselves into those situations.
If the expectations are going to stay the same — make the playoffs and it’s a success — then the Suns are on pace. If they want to raise those expectations to a new level, say some May or June home dates, they’re going to need to develop that killer instinct and execution to put teams away when they have a chance.