Steven Adams’ All-Star Potential

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s young center Steven Adams has All-Star potential. He may never be a traditional franchise cornerstone in the mold of Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing or Shaquille O’Neal, but could he replicate the defensive presence of a Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan?

Both DeAndre Jordan and Steven Adams entered the draft after one year in college and played their rookie seasons as 20-year-olds. Tyson Chandler entered the draft straight out of high school and became a 19-year-old rookie.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2015.

From the chart above, you can easily see how similar their rookie years were. Jordan stands out for his high field goal percentage and low free-throw percentage. Adams is slightly behind both in blocks per game and points per game. Looking at their second years in league is more of the same.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2015.

Both Chandler’s and Adams’ totals are higher due to playing about eight more minutes per game. If you look at their per 36 minutes numbers, they are extremely close.

Rebounding

Chandler and Jordan are both elite rebounders. According to NBA.com, Jordan is first in the league with 13.4 per game and Chandler is fourth with 12.2 per game. While Adams’ 7.1 rebounds doesn’t earn him a spot with the league leaders, it ranks him fourth among those that play 25 minutes or less per game. He is also second in rebounding among second-year players, for what it’s worth.

Jordan accounts for 45.1 percent of the Los Angeles Clippers’ rebounds while he is on the court, per NBA.com. That is the second highest percentage of team rebounds for a player that has played at least 30 games. Chandler ranks third just behind Jordan at 43.7 percent. Adams ranks a lowly 53rd with 29.7 percent of his team’s rebounds.

One possible reason for Adams’ less stellar rebounding percentage is that he plays with Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka—all solid rebounders. In fact, the Thunder lead the league in rebounds per game.

Protecting The Paint

Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan are also know as rim protectors. Jordan is second in the league with 2.4 blocks per game. Tyson Chandler is not as strong in this area as his reputation would suggest. He ranks 32nd in blocks per game with 1.3, per NBA.com.

At first glance it would appear that Adams may not be quite the rim protector Jordan happens to be. Even looking at players playing 25 minutes or less, Adams ranks only 14th with 1.1 blocks per game.

However, blocked shots are only part of protecting the paint. A player may not block a shot, but they could alter it bad enough so that the shot is missed. Opponents are shooting 48.5 percent against Adams according to NBA.com. That is good for 20th among players defending five or more shots per game. Jordan ranks 29th at 49.4 percent and Chandler ranks 40th at 51.2 percent.

Offense

It is not just the similar looking box scores that make both Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan good comparisons for what Steven Adams may become. It is also the way in which they get those numbers.

All three are big, physical centers with little or no shooting range that get their points through cuts, put-backs and hard rim-rolls. They may toss in the occasional post-up, but it is not their bread and butter.

The league prizes bigs with shooting range, especially three-point range. Playing too many players with suspect shooting kills floor spacing and allows the defense to pack the paint. A player like Tyson Chandler—a non-shooter—can be very effective on offense when there is shooting around him and he is rolling to the basket. Steven Adams should look to duplicate Chandler’s impact on the offensive end.

When Chandler sets a high-ball screen and rolls hard to the rim, the defense has to pick between stopping the dribble penetration or stopping his roll. When there is a shooter in the corner, the help defense has to pick between darting into the lane to bump Chandler—allowing his man an open three—or sticking with his man and allowing Chandler to roll free for a dunk.

Both Jordan and Adams play similar rolls on offense for their teams. For more on the Dallas Mavericks’ offense and Tyson Chandler’s impact, check out Zach Lowe’s breakdown on Grantland.

For the Thunder, Serge Ibaka has expanded his shooting range and is now hitting 1.5 three-pointers per game. His shooting pairs well with Adams bruising inside game and pick-and-rolls allowing the Thunder to spread the floor and put pressure on the defense.

Breakout

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So when will Steven Adams “breakout” and start putting up the same All-Star level numbers as Jordan and Chandler?

It took both Chandler and Jordan a couple of years to truly breakout. It was year six for Chandler after he switched from the Chicago Bulls to the then New Orleans Hornets and paired up with Chris Paul. It was also Jordan’s sixth season when he started leading the league in rebounding and becoming a two-way force. For Jordan, it wasn’t a change of team, but of coaching.

According to Scott Howard-Cooper, when Doc Rivers took over the Clippers he compared DeAndre Jordan to Bill Russell and that motivated him to take his play to another level.

For the Thunder’s sake, one hopes it won’t take until year six for Adams to start scratching his All-Start potential. A strong showing in the playoffs this year combined with Kendrick Perkins potentially leaving after his contract expires or re-signing with a reduced role would open up more minutes and opportunities for Adams.

One thing is for sure, he has definitely shown flashes.

Next: Will The Thunder Make The Playoffs?