For 29 games last season, Al Horford was — by far — the best center in the Eastern Conference.
Averaging a career-best 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game on 58.8 percent true shooting, Horford was enjoying his best season as a pro.
Under, then-first year head coach, Mike Budenholzer, Horford’s myriad of skills were fully utilized. Perpetually labeled as an undersized five, Horford’s unique and all-encompassing skill-set is tailored made for the modern NBA — not to mention, a perfect match for Budenholzer’s Spursian offensive flow system.
Specifically, Horford can effectively play in a plethora of roles as the screener in pick-and-roll sets — the staple of modern day NBA offenses. Not only does Horford excel as a midrange shooter in the pick-and-pop game — shooting a hair under 50 percent from 16-23 feet over the past two seasons — but he is also an explosive enough finisher at the rim, primarily off of hard dives and timely slips — where he consistently converts over 70 percent of his attempts from 0-3 feet — to effectively keep defenses guessing.
2013-14 Shot Chart
2014-15 Shot Chart
To effectively complement his wide array of skills, Horford is also a highly capable passer out of the high-post and off of short rolls, an essential skill for all grounded and undersized centers. Horford can also serve as the release valve on the offensive end, operating efficiently in the low post on short clock situations.
In addition, Budenholzer’s scrambling, help-oriented defensive scheme is built to exploit Horford’s, and his frontcourt counterpart, Paul Millsap‘s, strengths and versatility as bigs.
Most notably, the unassuming tandem are exceptional pick-and-roll defenders; walling off the paint while zoning/corralling opposing ballhandlers into the midrange areas of the floor.
Both Horford and Millsap have a great understanding of help defense concepts, and knowing when to help the helper — and their lateral quickness enables them to guard the perimeter in short spurts, which in turn, allows the Hawks’ guards and wings to recover in a timely manner.
Horford’s career year was cut short, however. In what seemed to be a routine defensive play for the ball, Horford would suffer a torn pectoral muscle for the second time in a two-year span. The injury would cost Horford the remainder of the 2013-14 campaign.
Accordingly, after an encouraging 16-13 start, good for third in the Eastern Conference at the time, the Hawks would plummet down the East standings, losing 35 of their final 63 games. Atlanta, though, would claw into the playoffs as the eighth seed, by virtue of being in the East; where they pushed the top-seeded Indiana Pacers to seven games before bowing out in the first round.
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When the incumbent season commenced, there were legitimate concerns over whether Horford could ever return back to last season’s form.
Early on during the season, the concerns became a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Horford was often late on his rotational assignments, hesitant to score in the paint, and slow to challenge incoming rim attackers.
As such, during the month of November, Horford sported a banal 3.4 net rating. Most notably, the Hawks conceded 4.2 more points per 100 possessions with Horford on the floor. In addition, his interior scoring and ability to protect the rim was noticeably worse when compared to the year prior.
Consequently, the Hawks came out of the gates rather “slowly,” accumulating a 9-6 record by the end of the month.
While it is a well-established fact that correlation does not equal causation, it is not just a simple coincidence, just when Horford starts to progress back into his former-self, that the Hawks would start rampaging and dismantling the entire league — ripping off 27 wins in 29 contests, including their ongoing 13-game winning streak.
Over the past month and a half, Horford has gradually looked and performed much better — particularly, he has tightened up his rotations, improved his rim protection, and diversified his offensive attack.
Specifically, during the first month or so, Horford would settle for a lot of midrange jumpers, opting to flare out religiously and ignoring the opportunities to slip on picks against overly aggressive defenses. His over-cautiousness did not hurt his scoring efficiency, however, as he started the year scorching from 16-23 feet.
Since then, he has regained his confidence and recaptured his groove, playing a more aggressive brand of basketball — looking to attack on post-ups, diving hard towards the rim, while spacing the floor using his jumper as a decoy. As a result, he has experienced a steady increase in paint points, and has concurrently raised his assist rate, for consecutive months (see charts below).
Month-by-Month Comparison*
* Data courtesy of NBA.com
Most encouragingly, Horford’s defensive play is slowly progressing back to peak form. In fact, his defensive rating has dropped from 108.7 — when the Hawks’ defense performed better with Horford on the bench during the month of November — to 98.6 in December and 96.1, thus far, in January.
Additionally, opponents are now converting on only 52.3 percent of their shots at the rim when Horford is patrolling the paint. While the mark is far from impressive, it has dipped significantly from the mid-to-high 50s Horford was relinquishing back in November.
Accordingly, his heightened level of play, on both ends of the floor, has led to a spike in raw production:
Month-By-Month Raw Statistical Comparison
| PPG | RPG | APG | BPG | MPG | |
| November | 13.6 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 28.9 |
| December | 15.7 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 31.0 |
| January | 17.0 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 31.6 |
Horford’s ascension has come much sooner than anyone had anticipated. In fact, when extrapolating his production in January out to the 33 minutes per game Horford had averaged last season, his line of 17.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists compares favorably to his per game output in 2013-14.
And, even more promisingly, over the last three contests, Horford has averaged 21.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 84.4 (!!!) percent from the field in consecutive wins over the Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, and Chicago Bulls.
For all intents and purposes, the Hawks have established themselves as the midseason favorites to come out of the East. Additionally, the Hawks’ core of Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, and Kyle Korver, along with Horford, can all make a well-founded case as to why they should participate in this year’s All-Star Game.
Just how good Atlanta can ultimately become, however, will depend on Horford’s continuous progression. The question, now, isn’t whether or not Horford can regain his form from the year prior, but whether Horford can surpass that level of play and establish new peak.