Toronto Raptors: Starting Lineup Optimization

Let’s look on the bright side. At least the Toronto Raptors‘ current situation is further along than Morris Peterson‘s broadcasting career.

Yes, a cheap-shot on a rookie just starting out. But the lingering frustration over Friday night’s defeat (also known as: Atlanta’s tomahawk chop) has to be directed somewhere! … At this point, even a Raps’ legend isn’t untouchable from being called out.

I fully expect a forthcoming “Mo Pete” backlash. But I can’t be the only one thinking it.

Laughing matters aside, the onus of the Raps’ trending reality falls on the players. With a weekend spotlight shining, and an opportunity to re-establish themselves presented (even when facing off with a juggernaut), Toronto served its fan base with a plate of major disappointment.

Notice Atlanta’s crisp ball movement, constant attacking of the paint to make things happen, and the Raptors’ dingy decision-making in the upcoming clip. One that left Toronto extending all of its energy chasing the rock all night long.

WARNING: The following contains disturbing scenes of a high-octane offense dismantling an overmatched defense. Viewer discretion is advised. Especially those with a weak stomach:

That team-basketball display “used” to be the Raps’ M.O. Granted, any season that isn’t filled with moments of adversity is an exercise in wishful thinking, so faith of a resurrection is still in order.

A third seed in the East is still owned, but as Milwaukee and Cleveland lurk in the conference background, Toronto is in danger of falling even further.

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But coming out on the losing end of the battle isn’t the issue, as a victory wasn’t the expectation. After all, like James Harden storming through a double-team, the Hawks have recently made it look easy.

A 12-game winning streak is one thing, but with the intertwined 12 straight triumphs on the road, we may be looking at history in the making.

The disheartening aspect for Raptors’ fans is the lackadaisical effort put forth in the midst of the team’s declining status. That is what truly cramps this city’s style.

For last call at the Hawks’ party, look no further than this eye-popping rundown, and the elite company they keep.

Top Winning Percentage vs. teams with a .500 record or better:

• Atlanta .737 (14-5 record)
• Golden State .692 (9-4 record)
• San Antonio .579 (11-8 record)
• Chalk up another quality win against Chicago on Saturday night.

The mandate moving forward: It’s time for a climate change …

Terrence Ross is the new Jonas Valanciunas. Assuming the title of Toronto’s most polarizing basketball figure. Questions of whether or not JV would ascend to the next level are decreasing rapidly, while concerns (depending on what part of town you’re from) over T-Ross are now travelling in the opposite direction.

A kryptonite representation to a select portion of Toronto’s fan base. At times, any second guessing, tongue-lashing, or simply pointing out flaws in his game have been met head-on with resounding resistance.

Well, folks … The time has come to stop treating Ross with kid gloves. Besides, a demotion to the bench doesn’t necessarily mean a stoppage in contributions. But it does, at the very least, aid the Raps in optimizing their production.

Poking holes in what Ross brings to the table. Including replacement options:

Spacing the floor:

It’s no secret a key ingredient to the Raps’ success is Kyle Lowry‘s and DeMar DeRozan‘s ability to create while driving to the basket, leaving the option open for a quick kick-out to T-Ross roaming the outside. “When it’s clicking”, Ross has proved more than worthy of the task.

Replacement options:

• Both Louis Williams and Patrick Patterson have thrived in their reserve roles. Usually, tampering with what’s already working would be frowned upon. Not to mention Sweet Lou’s knack for taking advantage of an opponents second-unit inexperience, and his use in isolations. But with the recent slide of the club, it could be time to carry more weight.

• To insert Williams, this would mean shifting DeRozan to the three, making room for Williams at the two. A different look for DeRozan with increased off-the-ball activity would need acclamation time, but it’s a spot where prior reps are held. While still allowing Double-D to do what he does best, getting to the free-throw line with regularity. A quality that seems lost on T-Ross.

• Patterson is an intriguing one. Creating a more seamless transition as a straight-up switch. Listed as Power Forward on paper, but masquerades as a unique three. Add in the ability to contribute on the boards with catch-and-shoot ability attached, this represents an interesting equation. One that includes Ross’ last five games of 28 percent shooting from the field.

Defense:

Guarding the other team’s wing is a tall order in today’s NBA. Agility, quickness, and the ability to fight through screens are traits required throughout the league, but magnified when dealing with such an on-the-ball defensive slot. Ross has shown the ability to hang tough with the league’s upper-tier in spurts.

Replacement option:

• Dwane Casey has stated he will stick with Ross for the time being, but unless a rapid transformation takes place, a reloading is nearing an inevitability. If/when that happens, look for James Johnson to get his well deserved shot at permanent employment in this squad’s first five.

• Averaging just 21.8 minutes a game (a tragic misuse), JJ leads the Raps’ in Blocks Per Game (1.2), ranks third in Defensive Win Shares (1.0), and prevails in Defensive Box Plus/Minus with a wide-margin clip of 2.2. And we haven’t even digged into his offense yet!

• Ross has undergone decline in his own Defensive Win Shares (2.2 last season, 0.6 so far this year) and Defensive Box Plus/Minus (-0.5 a year ago, presently -1.5). His largest intangible is dwindling.

Stats Per 36 minutes: All parties involved …

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/18/2015.

Advanced Stats:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/18/2015.

The Big Picture:

Ross is flat-out beaten by all three candidates in plenty of important categories. Namely: PER, true shooting percentage, win shares, value over replacement player and box plus/minus.

He may represent the biggest upside of the four, but is there a rush to get there? … Even with reduced minutes, isn’t the proposition of T-Ross flourishing against other second-units a promising one?

Unless a showcase for a trade is in effect, Toronto’s brass must consider its options for the rest of the season. Too much effort has been put into building a contending franchise. With an uptick in cracks exposed, and the All-Star break inching closer, now is the time to run the experiment.

What the team loses in Ross’ reduced role, can be made up for to an extent. But the added worth across the board is well worth it. At minimum, an attempt is warranted.

The Raps just might find a permanent solution. Besides, I don’t think “Mo Pete” is suiting up anytime soon.

Next up:

Anthony Davis, the rising Bucks, and the Vancouver Memphis Grizzlies. All hands on deck …

Next: Our Latest NBA Mock Draft