Jusuf Nurkić: Denver Nuggets Rookie Report
By Aaron Mah
In an age when teams’ ongoing search for quality NBA-caliber centers are — just that, ongoing, it is hard to imagine how Jusuf Nurkić slipped all the way to the 16th overall pick in this past year’s draft.
But, after reading up on Nurkić’s backstory — something of a novelty in and of itself — his rise to prominence becomes slightly more rational.
Specifically, Nurkić has only played organized basketball for roughly six years. In fact, he was introduced to the sport after an agent read a brief news clipping detailing how a 7-foot, 400-pound Bosnian police officer successfully fought off 14 men, simultaneously.
Thereafter, the agent did what any sane human would do — he visited Hariz Nurkić at his home and asked if he had any children of similar size. Luckily, for all parties involved, Hariz would introduce the agent to Jusuf, a young 14 year-old behemoth.
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Accordingly, Nurkić would begin to exclusively train for basketball, playing under the Slovenian club, Zlatorog Lasko. However, for two years, the young giant was subjugated to the club’s junior squad.
His breakthrough onto the international scene would occur in early 2012, while playing as a loaned player for Union Olimpija in the Euroleague NIJT tournament — where he averaged 18.8 points and 11.1 rebounds per game in five contests. Based on his eye-raising performance, Nurkić would suddenly become a mainstay on NBA draft radars.
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Over the subsequent year, however, Nurkić would be used sparingly by his club team, primarily receiving minutes during garbage time. Last season, though, as his club team, Cedevita, replaced their coach from the prior year, Nurkić would start getting relevant playing time.
Nurkić would go on to fully capitalize on his newfound opportunity, dominating the Adriatic League by putting up some astonishing per minute numbers. Most notably, in just 16.6 minutes per game, Nurkić managed to average 11.7 points and 5.7 rebounds in 28 games. More interestingly, on a per-40 minute basis, Nurkić averaged 28.2 points and 13.7 rebounds per game.
Expectedly, after his season had concluded, Nurkić would leverage his dominant play and entered the 2014 NBA Draft.
On draft night, Nurkić was projected, by most mock drafts, to be selected within the 10-15 range. Scouts were quick to marvel at the 20-year-old’s strength and post game, comparing him favorably to Minnesota Timberwolves’ bruising center, Nikola Pekovic. However, many questioned Nurkić’s ability stay out of foul trouble and defend with discipline.
Draft Express’ 2013 scouting report on Nurkic can be seen here:
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Presumably, for that reason, and the possibility of Nurkić staying in Europe for another season, he would experience an extended wait on draft night.
Nurkić was eventually drafted with the 16th overall pick by the Chicago Bulls, who would subsequently trade his draft rights, along with those of Gary Harris, to the Denver Nuggets, for the draft rights to Doug McDermott.
Coming into the season, though, it was hard to determine what to expect from the 6-foot-11, 280-pound bruiser. There was an ample amount of game film on Nurkić, but most of his YouTube findings were grainy, and the competition he faced was suspect.
Much like Giannis Antetokounmpo from the season prior, Nurkić was somewhat of a mystery. The reticence surrounding Nurkić would be compounded when he declined to play for the Nuggets’ summer league team, electing instead, to represent his country in the FIBA U-20 Division B Championships, where he earned tournament MVP averaging 21.4 points and 12.0 rebounds per game.
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Accordingly, when the preseason commenced, it was hard to figure where Nurkić would fit in the grand scheme of things; especially since their starting center, coming into the season, in Timofey Mozgov, had an established relationship with Nuggets’ head coach, Brian Shaw, and their backup, JaVale McGee, was a vested interest for the Denver brass, to the tune of two years and $23.25 million that is owed on his current contract.
With that being said, though, Nurkić would quickly establish his trademark physical presence during their eight exhibition contests, including a 16-point, eight-rebound performance in Denver’s preseason finale.
Much like his amateur career, Nurkić began the NBA season receiving immaterial playing time, including a 16-game stretch from the beginning of November to the beginning of December where the gargantuan rookie received 12 DNPs.
But, in mid-December, McGee would suffer a leg injury, which consequently, opened up playing time for Nurkić.
Since then, the native of Bosnia and Herzegovina has not look back. In fact, he has played so well since entering the rotation, that, Denver’s management decided to trade Mozgov to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 7.
However, in the five contests since entering the starting lineup, Nurkić’s per minute production has festered, as he’s only averaging 7.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks in 23.1 minutes per game. On the season, though, Nurkić is putting up 16.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per 36 minutes.
Additionally, he leads all rookies, who have played more than 100 minutes this season, in PER — ranking above the much-heralded and reigning rookies of the month, Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Mirotic, and third in win shares per 48 minutes, behind only Mirotic and Tarik Black.
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Offensively, Nurkić’s integral strength is, unironically, his strength. Even at age 20, he can already manhandle and push around the biggest and baddest centers the NBA has to offer, such as, Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins.
In particular, Nurkić utilizes his brute lower body strength to punish opposing bigs on the block — simply backing them down, deep in the paint, before unleashing a soft right-handed baby hook. When he is not too busy scoring, Nurkić is drawing fouls, as the opposition wilt to his unrelenting power.
In fact, his free throw rate of .358 compares favorably to Cousins’ and Nikola Pekovic’s free throw rate of .403 and .433, respectively, during their rookie years, and significantly higher than Nikola Vucevic‘s rookie free throw rate of .117.
Nurkić also shows surprising vision when passing out of the post — specifically on the left block. He is particularly competent at hitting the opposite wing shooter on a cross-court pass as the defense hard digs and stunts.
In addition, Nurkić is a forceful rim-runner — a skill most young bigs sorely lack. Specifically, he gets out of the block quickly, sprinting down the middle of the floor, in which his solid foundation of fundamentals enable him to plant his foot at the tip of the restricted circle and effectively seal his man — thus, either drawing a foul or creating a high percentage attempt at the rim.
Alternatively, by rim-running hard, Nurkić effectively sucks in a collapsing defense, mid-break, to successfully free up his corner shooters for open looks.
As well, Nurkić showcases a feathery touch on his occasional mid-range attempts. In fact, he has converted eight of his 14 shot attempts from 16 to 23 feet, good for 57.1 percent. Such a skill will be vital down the road if Nurkić can improve his ballhandling to potentially become a devastating high-post initiator — ala Marc Gasol.
However, when compared to the three aforementioned centers, of whom, bare a stylistic resemblance, in Cousins, Vucevic, and Pekovic, Nurkić is not the most accomplished finisher at-the-rim.
As rookies, Cousins, Vucevic, and Pekovic converted on 63.3, 65.6, and 62.9 percent of their attempts from 0-3 feet, respectively. Comparatively, at present, Nurkić is only a 53.4 percent shooter from in close.
To be completely genuine, though, with the exception of Pekovic, Nurkić attempts a higher percentage of his shots at the rim (45.1 percent) than Cousins and Vucevic during their rookie campaigns.
It should be noted, however, Nurkić is noticeably worse from 3-10 feet, where he attempts 42.6 percent of his shot attempts and converts on a rather anemic 34.8 percent rate. Thus, even though 67.7 percent of his points derive from within the paint, he only sports an inefficient guard-like 49.6 percent true shooting percentage.
Shot Chart of Jusuf Nurkić
* LA = League Average
While Nurkić is already a highly productive player, most of his success stems from his natural athletic gifts. His relative rawness, skill-wise, limits his efficiency on the offensive end..
Most notably, Nurkić really struggles to finish with his left hand. Consequently, he’s not nearly as effective when operating on the right block.
His lack of a left hand also affects his ability to finish drop-off passes and offensive putbacks, as Nurkić often forces up an awkward-looking right handed leaner, while fighting through contact, when trying to finish on the left side of the floor.
Secondly, Nurkić is far from a refined post player. His tenacity and lower body strength allows him to bully most bigs in the league, but when the defense starts digging and hard doubling, Nurkić rarely recognizes it.
In particular, Nurkić lacks the basic fundamentals of a patient post player. Specifically, most experienced bigs would catch, chin the ball, survey the middle, crab dribble and probe, before determining a course of action. Contrarily, Nurkić just catches, puts his head down, and starts backing down, with no regards for his surroundings.
Furthermore, currently, Nurkić has a limited arsenal of moves. In fact, he has one — back his defender down to about 10 feet and in, and shoot a baby hook over his left shoulder. While the move has been wildly effective, thus far, and serves as a solid base for a go-to move, Nurkić has to start adding counter moves, and counter to his counter moves, sooner rather than later.
Skills, such as expanding his post repertoire, will come in time. What Nurkić can remedy immediately, however, are little nuances, like keeping the ball high when finishing in the paint — something Nurkić doesn’t always do.
Additionally, Nurkić has to continue to improve upon his conditioning. Too often, in transition and secondary break situations, do you see Nurkić jog up the court, and hang back around the 3-point line, without giving any effort to crash the offensive boards.
Nevertheless, without being too nitpicky, Nurkić has the all the natural talent and key foundational tools to be a high-end offensive center for years to come — he just needs to add to his current skill-set.
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What separates Nurkić, as a rookie prospect, from other young low post-centric eastern European centers of this decade, like Vucevic, Pekovic, and Jonas Valančiūnas, is his proficiency on the defensive end.
In fact, not only does Nurkić lead the Nuggets in overall net rating, Denver’s defense operates at its absolute optimal point when Nurkić is its anchor — as the team concedes only 95.0 points per 100 possessions when Nurkić is in the game, a full 9.5 points better than their season average, per NBA stats.
Most notably, over the past five games, with Nurkić starting at center, the Nuggets’ defensive rating has dropped to 102.7.
More interestingly, the opponent’s effective field goal percentage dips to 44.0 percent with their young rookie manning the middle. Comparatively, the Nuggets allow an effective field goal percentage of 49.2 percent when someone other than Nurkić is anchoring their defense.
What’s most intriguing is that Nurkić is equally adept at defending post-up isolations and pick-and-roll situations.
As a post defender, Nurkić’s style is eerily reminiscent to Toronto Raptors’ backup big man, Chuck Hayes, where he utilizes his immovable base to frustrate opposing bigs fighting for position. Without giving any ground, Nurkić usually stays big, with his arms up anticipating a shot attempt, as the opposition usually resort to flailing into their contingency move.
In pick-and-roll situations, Nurkić routinely showcases his nimble feet by, either, showing hard in high PNRs or hedging on side PNRs, to effectively block off all middle penetration. In addition, Nurkić has a great feel for when the opposing ballhandler might pull-up, as you’ll often find him contesting aggressively on perimeter shot attempts.
Although he gets lost at times, overall, Nurkić is a fine help defender. His inherent feel for the game enables him to time most of his rotations perfectly. And additionally, he does a fantastic job of staying vertical, keeping his arms straight-up while using his body to knock penetrating guards off-balance.
As a result, even with average length by NBA standards (7-foot-2 wingspan and 9-foot-1.5 standing reach), Nurkić is still able to effectively protect the rim — as he rocks a highly respectable 6.4 percent block percentage. Meanwhile, he also holds opponents to 47.8 percent, when attempting shots at-the-rim with Nurkić anchoring.
However, his problematic foul rate have followed him from Europe to the NBA. In fact, he averages 7.5 fouls per 36 minutes.
Particularly, Nurkić is not the most discipline defender, usually caught reaching and overly aggressive when defending on the perimeter. His bully mentality also gets him in trouble, especially when battling in the trenches, as he usually gets tagged with unnecessary loose ball fouls.
Additionally, albeit observing on a limited sample size, Nurkić has struggled defending stretch bigs, as he fails to closeout with timeliness on pick-and-pop sets.
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With that being said, Nurkić has a chance to become an elite center, and potentially, join an exclusive group of bigs with the ability to make a material impact on both ends of the floor.
Most importantly, with the risk of speaking in hyperbole, Nurkić has the attitude, smug, and “swag” to be great.
Specifically, he is just cocky enough for opposing fans to hate him, and passionate enough for Nuggets’ fans to adore him.
With the emergence of Wiggins, Mirotic, and Elfrid Payton, along with the strong play of Nurkić — not to mention the slew of injured rookies with massive potential, like Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon, and Joel Embiid — the rookie class of 2014-15 may just end up living up to its ridiculous hype.