Do Successful College Basketball Players Succeed In The NBA?

Being successful at your sport of choice is something to take pride in, no matter what level the competition is. Whether it be high school, college or the pros, success is hard to come by, and not everyone is destined to achieve greatness.

When considering this, many like to make the comparisons of college basketball players and follow them through their NBA careers. While that’s the starting point, eventually it gets a little murky, as the two levels of play are increasingly different.

Every once in a while, it’s a good idea to look at how the two levels of play work together to help us understand how, and if, college success works into NBA success. We start off by looking at NBA-level talent in college and move to how they work once they hit the pros.

There’s a phrase that gets thrown around, more or less, every March during the NCAA tournament: “Team A will win because they have the most NBA talent.”

Now, this phrase, while having some backing, does not necessarily dictate anything other than it’s a thought process by those around the game.

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Some feel that the college basketball team with the most NBA talent has the best chance to win it all, citing pure talent and the ability to outwork those that will more than likely end up doing something else with their lives after college other than play basketball.

Florida faced this question last year. There were those that felt, despite their 31-2 overall record and running through the competition, should not be favored to win the national title because of their lack of NBA players.

Some scoffed at this notion, putting their confidence in the Gators because they had the best overall team, even if the talent couldn’t quite match up with the other three schools in the Final Four with NBA-level players.

The Gators wound up losing to Connecticut in the national semifinal.

While it’s a notion that, on the surface, shouldn’t have a leg to stand on, it has more of a backing than some would think. Over the last 10 years, of the seven teams to win national champions, they have combined for a total of 29 NBA Draft picks. The lone team to have no draft picks after winning a national title was Duke’s 2010 championship team.

There were also no draft picks featuring the 2006 winners, but that’s because all of Florida’s championship team returned the next year to go for back-to-back titles, which they accomplished.

With only one anomoly in this grouping, it’s clear that college basketball teams succeed when they have players go on to be drafted to the NBA or were already good enough to be drafted. There are some players that do get drafted and never make it to the league, but being drafted is an accomplishment in itself.

Having pro-level talent on your roster makes things a bit easier, though there could be another cause for this number to be so high.

NBA teams want winners. If you’re not an 18-year-old freshman with enormous upside, your best bet is to be part of a national championship team. That will get you a bit more publicity and hype, which, in turn, increases your chances of being drafted. Winning a title makes things a bit easier for the players.

So if winning a title makes your chances of being drafted better, what about those who don’t win titles but are still successful in college?

Here’s an interesting number to keep in mind as the rest of the season goes along: Only three players in win the AP National Player of the Year award have also won a national championship in the last 15 years. Being named the best player in the country does not mean a lot, mostly because the best teams have more than one standout player.

The three players to accomplish both were Anthony Davis (2011-12), Tyler Hansbrough (2008-09) and Shane Battier (2000-01).

If being the best player in the country in college doesn’t equate team success, does it mean anything at the next level? What happens to those who win the National Player of the Year award when they go off to the NBA?

College success doesn’t always add to be being successful at the NBA level, and not being a top pick in the draft does not mean you won’t be good in the pros. It’s a never ending stretch of ups and downs, unproven guarantees and probable uncertainties. Luckily, we have some numbers to figure these things out or, at the very least, give us some sort of idea.

The NBA’s rookie of the Year award dates back the 1952-53 season. During this time, there have only been a handful on players to win the National POY in college and the Rookie of the Year award. The last to do it was Blake Griffin in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Before him was Kevin Durant in 2007 and 2008.

However, before those two, you have to go all the way back to Tim Duncan in 1997 and 1998 to accomplish this.

Now, there is the question on whether this says anything about how the National Player of the Year award is chosen or if it speaks to something else. Looking at the winners of POY and ROY, there isn’t really any sort of correlation between the two other than different players winning the awards. It’s a fact of basketball. Some players perform better at the college level than they do at the NBA level.

Sometimes it takes a few seasons to get it going in the NBA after being great at college. Sometimes great college players have no business in the NBA because of the variance in style of play.

However, the point of this isn’t to debate whether college is better than the NBA or vice versa. This is merely a measurement of how top college basketball players fair at the next level. Nothing more, nothing less.

It’s always difficult to separate the college player from the same player that goes to the NBA, mostly because they’re the same person. Although, while they are the same person, there is a big contrast in style of play, athleticism and pure skill from college to the NBA. Some players can’t keep up, others do just fine.

College and the NBA are two different animals, and being successful at one does not guarantee success at the other one. The numbers show that these things are the only certainties you can get out of the the draft and college basketball.

Keep these things in mind as the college season moves forward and we get closer to the 2015 NBA Draft. The best players in college, and those that earn accolades for their accomplishments at that level, are not guaranteed success and accolades at the NBA level.