Expectations can distort perception. If we expect something to amaze and it doesn’t, we can feel disappointed by the result even if in reality it shouldn’t be disappointing. North Carolina has been a victim of their own great expectations.
Before the start of the season, many in the national media picked them to win the conference. I picked them to win the conference, and even expected a run to the Final Four. When they started the season looking like a good, but flawed, basketball team it felt like someone let the air out of my balloon.
Why wasn’t Marcus Paige playing like the All-American he was supposed to be? Why hasn’t Justin Jackson been more efficient? How can Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson look dominant for stretches, and then appear to disappear completely? How can a team so talented lose to Butler and Iowa? I was so confident in the Tar Heels before the season.
Was I letting that early prediction cloud my judgement? Rather than being a massive disappointment they could just be a team that takes awhile to find their identity.
I’ve come to the conclusion that my expectations were unfair. Every team is different. Some dominate right away, like Duke and Kentucky. While some take nearly the entire season to discover their identity, like the Connecticut Huskies team that won the national championship last year.
Fortunately for fans of North Carolina, it looks like the Heels are starting to find their way.
Saturday, they welcomed the fifth-ranked Louisville Cardinals to Chapel Hill for a matinee showdown at the Dean Smith Center. The Cardinals came in boasting one of the stingiest defenses in the ACC (second-best defensive rating in the nation at 79.5), allowing teams to shoot only 39.6 percent from the field this season.
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North Carolina would have their work cut out for them if they were going to score against Louisville’s constant trapping and pressing. Much to my surprise, what I anticipated to be a defensive slugfest, actually turned into a bit of a shootout.
The teams traded baskets early in a back and forth first half that ended in a 34-34 tie. Louisville came out clicking in the second, quickly jumping out to a 9 point lead.
In a game that saw North Carolina’s big men hold Montrezl Harrell to nine points and five rebounds, guards Terry Rozier and Chris Jones stole the show for Louisville. Rozier led all scorers with 25 points. He did most of his damage inside the arc, knocking down pull-up jumpers and finishing at the rim.
Jones added 19 points and five assists. His three three-pointers were timely, often quelling a North Carolina run. However, there was not much help for Rozier and Jones. As I’ve already stated, Harrell struggled to get open all game, and the Louisville bench provided no points. Wayne Blackshear hit a pair of three-pointers, but he struggled from the floor, shooting 3-of-8 for the game.
Despite the dominance of the two dynamic guards, Louisville could not seem to put the Tar Heels away. The Cardinals held a 63-50 lead with 8:23 remaining, but North Carolina would claw back, thanks to timely outside shooting and capitalizing on late free throws (North Carolina shot 9-of-11 from the foul line).
It’s no secret that this season has been a struggle for Paige. Coming into Saturday, Paige was averaging 13.5 points and 3.6 assists per game on only 36.8 percent shooting. Those numbers are a far cry from his All-ACC season from a year ago, when he scored 17.5 points per game on 44 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from the three-point line.
Those struggles continued into Saturday. Paige struggled to get open early, and even left at one point to have a foot injury tended to. After the game, coach Roy Williams stated that the junior point guard is dealing with plantar fasciitis.
Despite the injury, Paige would knock down a big three-pointer during North Carolina’s furious comeback. Most importantly, he would be there in the end.
Terry Rozier knocked down a smooth pull-up jumper with 26 seconds remaining to give Louisville a one point lead. Roy Williams called a timeout. They found themselves in the same situation Monday night against Notre Dame. Against the Irish, they failed to get a quality shot leading to a 71-70 Notre Dame victory.
On this day, Paige would not let that happen. With the clock running down, North Carolina in-bounded the ball, preparing to go for the win. Paige would go around a ball-screen from Kennedy Meeks to create space. Sensing a mismatch with Louisville power forward Chinanu Onuaku, Paige darted to the basket sending a high arching underhand shot off the glass and in.
Wayne Blackshear’s three-point attempt at the other end would miss, and a Terry Rozier put-back would also fall short. Tar Heels win. A heart-pounding emotional victory for a team in need of confidence.
Marcus Paige provided the heroics, but the victory was a total team effort. Paige’s game-winner would give him 10 points on 4-of-10 shooting. Kennedy Meeks led the Heels with 13 points, and Brice Johnson notched a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds. The last player in double figures was J.P. Tokoto, who had 10 points and also grabbed five rebounds with five assists.
Everyone chipped in offensively, and the Tar Heels were tenacious on the glass.
North Carolina out-rebounded Louisville 40 to 30, including 17 offensive rebounds. Those second chance opportunities were huge, and helped compensate for a 43.3 percent shooting percentage.
North Carolina now has four top-25 wins, and a win over a league rival in the top five. They clearly have the talent to compete for a league title, but do they have the consistency? This win could be the jumping off point they need to finally realize their full potential.
The expectations and predictions are in the past. All that’s left is to play basketball. They now know they can beat an elite team. They now know they can be an elite team. They’ll have a chance to prove it again in a rematch with Louisville Jan. 31.
Just a word of advice to Louisville, don’t let Marcus Paige beat you. Because given another opportunity, he’ll do it again.