NBA: Do Point Guards Rule The Earth?

He’s usually the one with the ball in his hand, marching the troops up court for duty. He’s usually the one directing an order on the floor, much like a First Lieutenant relaying messages from the Captain.

In the simple, but ever so nuanced and perplexing game of basketball, The Captain is your head coach. The First Lieutenant is your point guard.

It’s basically been proven without intent in the NBA:  Your offense is only as good as your point guard … unless you have LeBron James on your roster. We’re all aware he’s the exception to any rule, since his combination of body frame and intelligent unselfishness makes him perhaps the deadliest point guard at times. When he chooses to play it, you rarely argue.

All you have to do is glance at the top six teams in this year’s offensive rating, and look at who’s orchestrating their offense most of the time:

• Toronto Raptors (114.2) — Kyle Lowry, All-Star
• Dallas Mavericks (113.9) — Rajon Rondo, 4x All-Star
• Los Angeles Clippers (112.6) — Chris Paul, the greatest
• Golden State Warriors (110.7) — Stephen Curry, MVP leader
• Phoenix Suns (109.3) — Eric Bledsoe & Goran Dragic, deadly duo
• Portland Trail Blazers (108.7) — Damian Lillard, clutch maestro

Yes, Rondo has only played 10 games with Dallas, but the Mavericks have still been a top six team in offensive rating since the addition.

Then, meander down the list to the bottom six in offensive rating (25-30) and compare the results:

• Philadelphia 76ers (93.0) — Tankers, plus Michael Carter-Williams
• Orlando Magic (100.5) — Elfrid Payton, rookie
• Charlotte Hornets (101.6) — Kemba Walker
• Indiana Pacers (101.9) — plethora of sub-par point guards
• Minnesota Timberwolves (102.2) — Zach LaVine & Mo Williams
• New York Knicks (102.3) — Jose Calderon

While Walker and Calderon aren’t incompetent and Charlotte’s clutch child has been on a roll lately, the point stands — top offenses are ran by consistent point guards, and bottom offenses struggle at that position.

However, let’s not act as if the point guard is the sole reason those top six offenses are where they are, because there’s certainly a greater team and cohesion aspect to how a team creates points. You need to have continuity in your roster (for the most part), at least one big man that can stretch his range, and starters that move freely without the ball.

There’s some people believing the power forward or center is the most important position to succeed in the sport. They actually have history to back up their statements, which is the scary part.

Using “Value Over Replacement Player” via Basketball-Reference, nearly the last two decades of NBA champions haven’t been predicated on superstar point guards. Sure, there’s an exception here and there, but use your majority lens:

VORP is defined as a box score estimate of the points per 100 team possessions a player contributed above a replacement-level (-2.0) player, translated to an average team.

Note: These values are from their respective regular seasons.

As you can see, only one point guard in the last 15 years has led his title team in VORP. It was Jason Kidd, who tied with Dirk Nowitzki for first on the 2011 Mavericks. The highest VORP for the last 15 years was Chauncey Billups (3.7), but he was still second on the 2004 Pistons to Ben Wallace’s 5.3.

This certainly isn’t the only scope you should evaluate when determining the worth of a point guard. After all, only one team out of 30 is fortunate enough to capture a title, and there is still something to be said about those who make deep playoff runs but come up short. Most of those teams are point guard driven.

Despite the recent champions not having superstar floor leaders, does it signify the NBA isn’t a point guard’s league?

No, not in the slightest.

More than any of the four other positions on the court, the point guard has the greatest impact on the NBA game today. Regardless of those staggering numbers in the chart above, the point guard position is growing by the year. Nearly half of the starting floor generals in this league have sparks of greatness, to the point where you debate if they’re in the top 10 of their position. In August, I ranked all 30 point guards, and some that didn’t make my top 10 cut have already proven me wrong.

Thus far into the 2014-15 year, point guards have shined in the bright lights, and most of them rest at the top of the standings.

In Wins Above Replacement (commonly referred to as WAR), five of the top 10 players this season are supreme point guards:

This is significant company, considering eight of these 10 players have been near MVP consideration all season long. The only two that don’t meet that criteria are Tyson Chandler and Paul Millsap, who have both been insanely strong in their roles, but wouldn’t enter MVP talks.

It’s evident those five point guards in the top 10 (Curry, Lillard, Lowry, Paul, Wall) are all the leaders of their playoff teams, and their combined record is an impressive 130-47. It’s not even taking into account Russell Westbrook, who’s missed 14 games this season. If he had been on the court for the entire year, it would be six of the top 10 in WAR that are point guards.

Last year, the top 10 in WAR was comprised of five power forwards, three point guards, and two small forwards. You could argue that the only reason it’s so point guard heavy this season is because of LeBron and Durant’s injuries, but are we certain that these point guards haven’t just been playing better overall? You have to give credit to the improvement of Wall, Lowry, and Lillard for starting the movement last year and continuing it with even further (and better) success.

In the most crucial advanced metrics out there, point guards are starting to fill the lists. Most notably, they’re doing it on the offensive end.

In Offensive Real Plus-Minus, 11 of the top 20 players are point guards. Finishing up last year, there were 10 — Curry, Paul, Westbrook, Lillard, Lowry, Deron Williams, Goran Dragic, Ty Lawson, Mike Conley, and Isaiah Thomas.

This season, the 11 are Curry, Paul, Westbrook, Lillard, Lowry, Lawson, Conley, Kyrie Irving, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, and Darren Collison.

Offensively, there’s nothing stronger than having a potent point guard run the show, and make everything easier and simpler for surrounding role players.

Defensively, however, the players in the league that absorb the most attention are — you guessed it — big men. In Defensive Real Plus-Minus, nine of the top 20 players are centers, five are power forwards, four are small forwards, and two are shooting guards. There are zero point guards.

In fact, you’d have to go all the way down to 32nd to find your first point guard in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, where John Wall has accumulated a rating of +2.24.

For total Real Plus-Minus (Offensive + Defensive), the league’s top point guards are so ridiculous offensively that it swells their total to high amounts:

Despite the Thunder being a top 10 team this season in defensive rating, Westbrook’s negative real plus-minus on defense is a bit surprising. Nevertheless, he’s such a pleasant piece to have offensively — with all of his anger and emotion — that he remains a top player in total real plus-minus. Wall represents a perfectly balanced point guard this season, although everyone remains hesitant how he’ll guide a low-rated Washington offense through the playoffs. Defensively, the Wizards have a grin on their faces because of Wall’s efforts.

All in all, the point guard position is thriving, rising, and surprising. It’s only improving, and to be able to witness the advancement year after year is without a doubt the most special part of covering the league. Excitement comes from this position, more than any other today.

It’s only beginning, too.

The average age of all current starting point guards is just 25.8, with 11 of them being 24 or younger.

It’s a point guard’s world, and we’re just in the heart of it.

**All statistical support credited to Basketball-Reference and ESPN.com**