The San Antonio Spurs could potentially miss the playoffs. Let that sink in. Is it likely? Probably not. But it is a possibility that has not existed in the Tim Duncan era, since the Spurs have never missed the playoffs in Duncan’s entire career.
After an 8-10 December swoon, and a debacle of a loss to the Detroit Pistons Tuesday night, they find themselves with a 21-16 record which has them only percentage points ahead of the Phoenix Suns for the seventh seed in the Western Conference.
Shockingly, that loss came down to poor execution down the stretch. Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter each missed a pair of free throws late in the game and Patty Mills mishandled an inbounds pass from Duncan, which led to a game-winning shot by Brandon Jennings. It was an uncharacteristic performance from a team that is usually fundamentally sound.
The aforementioned Phoenix Suns come rolling into San Antonio on Friday night, which now seems like an extremely important game (as important as a game can be on Jan. 9). This is a game that could have playoff implications come April.
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It’s not unreasonable to think that one of these two teams may end up as the eighth and final seed in a packed Western Conference playoff race. The Oklahoma City Thunder finally have Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant back and fully healthy. One would assume that once they get firing on all cylinders, they will make a hard charge up the standings.
As things stand now, they are only four games back of Phoenix and San Antonio with 46 games left on the schedule.
If it comes down to the Suns and Spurs for that final spot, it will be important to own the tiebreaker, just in case. They have already played once this season, a game on Halloween that saw Phoenix take a 94-89 victory at home. With three meetings left, it is imperative that San Antonio evens up the season series.
What exactly has gone wrong for San Antonio lately? Well, we know about the injuries. Losing your starting point guard in Tony Parker, your starting center in Tiago Splitter, and your NBA Finals MVP/starting small forward in Kawhi Leonard is enough to make even the deepest of organizations lose its way.
All the chaos caused by constantly having players in and out of lineup has mostly affected their offense. After back-to-back years with the seventh best offensive rating in the league, currently, their offensive rating sits at a mediocre 107, which is good for 13th in the NBA. Pair that with a defense that has the sixth best rating in the league (103.3), and you have a middle-of-the-road 21-16 record.
It’s obvious that the Spurs are not a bad team; they are just dealing with injuries and are not at their best right now. If they become completely healthy and do in fact make it to the postseason, they would still be my bet to at least make a run to the Western Conference Finals. That’s just what the Spurs do.
But, all that might not matter if they fail to get things right in the regular season. In the Eastern Conference, they would be in sole possession of the fifth seed, despite all their troubles, but the West is a different beast.
After Phoenix, they have a stretch of winnable games that includes Minnesota, Charlotte and Utah, with Washington, Portland, and Chicago mixed in. The latter three games all feature tough, quality opponents, increasing the need to win the games against the bottom-feeders of the league. It will be important for San Antonio to win the games they are supposed to from here on out. That starts Friday against Phoenix.
The return of Parker helps, and Kawhi Leonard will be back in a few weeks. Help is on the way. Until then, they just have to weather the storm without allowing Phoenix and Oklahoma City to gain too much ground. Can the Spurs turn back into the ball-moving juggernaut we all know them to be? It would be a shame for Tim Duncan’s potential last season to end in April. I can’t see Gregg Popovich letting that happen.
The Spurs always find a way.