With the new calendar year starting, it’s a good time to check in on how the freshmen are progressing to this point. A full scouting report is pretty meaningless at this point in the year, as young players tend to all go through similar cycles in their first year. Freshmen often have an advantage in the early part of the season, with opponents not really sure what they will be up against. As more film becomes available, coaches will be able to devise plans to stop them. The third part of the cycle is the most important, and often where freshmen separate themselves – learning from how teams are defending them, and adjusting, as well as adding new wrinkles to their game. By April, it is then more appropriate to do full scouting reports on freshmen.
Here is Part One of the two-part look at the top freshmen:
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Okafor’s first 11 games have been as good as anyone could have hoped, especially on the offensive end, where his skill level in the post is as good as any freshman in recent memory. He has the body to establish good position in the post, and he uses it well. His footwork is advanced for his age, and he has shown both good touch in the lane as well as the ability to finish strong at the rim, or step out to 8 to 10 feet and hit the jumper. Okafor runs the floor well for his size and is a good finisher in transition. He sees the floor well and becomes a better passer out of the post with each game.
What he needs to improve: Defense is where Okafor where needs to put in his most work, though a lot of issues will probably be cleaned up once he can improve his body. He needs to get stronger which will help him defend the post and rebound more effectively. Okafor also needs to anticipate and help around the basket better, where he has the ability to alter and block shot, but he can be slow to get in position. I don’t anticipate these to be long-term problems and should be fixed when he is focused on a pro career.
Karl Towns, PF, Kentucky
Towns was the most heralded of Kentucky’s freshman class, but his play so far hasn’t been as good as many other freshmen in the country. Still, he has a great combination of size and skill which make him a very good pro prospect. Towns has shown strong post play early on, working hard to establish good position and having mature footwork and shooting touch around the basket. Like the other Kentucky freshmen this year, he has a good feel for the game, sees the floor well, and can be a decent passer out of the post. Defensively, Towns has shown improvement already in his first college games, especially with his footwork in the post and on the perimeter. He is also a capable rim protector and rebounder.
What he needs to improve: Towns still has a lot of work to do on his body before he gets to the next level, but his size and skill level will still be valuable assets. Coming into the season, there was a lot of talk about Towns’ ability to stretch the floor on offense with his perimeter shooting, but there’s been little evidence of it so far. Obviously, it isn’t hurting Kentucky, but he doesn’t have the strength to compete in the post as a pro yet, so it will be needed early in his career. Defensively, while Towns has improved, he still has a lot of work to do, especially with the basics, like defending on high screens and rotating to help. Of any freshman, the “platoon” system is hurting Towns the most, as he needs as many minutes as possible on the floor to keep improving.
Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
From a physical standpoint, no freshman came into college ready to play like Johnson. At 6’7 and a solid 245 pounds, Johnson has the body to absorb contact on the way to the basket, with the athletic ability to make some spectacular plays. Perimeter shooting was a question mark early for Johnson, but he has done well, shooting over 43 percent from long-range. He is an effective rebounder on both ends of the floor, and when locked in, he can be a good on-ball defender. Johnson is very good in transition, especially when he gets the ball out in front or on one of the wings.
What he needs to improve: Johnson can be very aggressive when he gets the ball on offense, which isn’t always a bad thing, but he can make poor decisions, such as driving right into the help defense, or attempting poor passes. For all his physical ability, Johnson is not a very good finisher around the basket, often attempting off-balance shots instead of going right at defenders. He also needs to work on his body control when he drives, and learning how to pull up when he sees the defense waiting for him. Defensively, Johnson can be unfocused, especially when off the ball. He likes to wander, looking to create turnovers, but as the competition gets better, this won’t work for him. Johnson has the ability to make some impact immediately as a pro, but it will be important for him to get his skill level to catch up to his physical ability.
Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
Winslow has made an immediate mark on the Duke team this season, mostly on the defensive end. Winslow has the body and athletic ability to guard multiple positions, as well as the fundamentals to do it effectively. He can be a good rebounder for his size, and he is capable of contesting shots around the basket. On offense, Winslow is at his best in transition, either pushing the ball up the floor himself or getting out on one of the wings. He is capable of some spectacular finishes if he given some space.
What he needs to improve: Winslow is more physical ability than skill right now, though he is certainly heading in the right direction. Improving his ballhandling ability and perimeter shooting will be necessary for the next level. He has shown signs of being able to do both well, but can easily look likes he’s regressed a few minutes later. That consistency will be important for him, and Duke, in the second half of the season. If Winslow can show consistent improvement, while keeping his defense at a high level, he is another player who could make some impact right away as a pro.
Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Lyles showed steady improvement in December as his minutes increased. He has good size at the power forward position, and the skill to play in the post or on the perimeter. His ability to step out to 15 to 18 feet makes him tough to defend, and he has shown that his length can be a problem for defenders on the offensive glass. Lyles has shown some versatility on the defensive end, and though not a good shot-blocker, he can force bad shots. He works hard to rebound on the defensive end, though he needs to work on being more physical.
What he needs to improve: Lyles doesn’t seem to have a true role in the offense, and he hasn’t had much of an opportunity to show his post skills so far this season. While his mid-range jumper is solid, he still has trouble from behind the arc, and he doesn’t seem very confident in that shot. Defensively, he is just okay, not having very good footwork yet in the post or on the perimeter. The most important thing for Lyles will be to develop physically, especially getting stronger, which will help him on both ends going forward.
Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Like many freshmen, Booker has had an up and down beginning to his college career, but when he is at his best, he provides Kentucky with a major weapon. Booker can shoot from long-range as well as any other freshman in the country, and maybe as well as any college player at all. He has a quick, compact stroke paired with good size on the perimeter. He has a good feel for the game, and other than some poor shot choices, he makes good decisions with the ball. Booker is also a very solid perimeter defender, with the ability to pressure the ball and contain his man.
What he needs to improve: Booker is a skilled offensive player, but he needs to start putting all the skills together and becoming more versatile, though it may not be what Kentucky needs from him. He’s an average ballhandler and sees the floor well, so he needs to look more for opportunities to attack the basket and create scoring chances for himself or teammates. Also, like Aaron Harrison was as a freshman, Booker is more of a spot shooter from the perimeter, and he should work on the mid-range jumper much like Harrison has shown more this season. Physically, he still has work to do before he’s ready for the next level, but he has the skill to help him get there.
Myles Turner, PF/C, Texas
Turner has had some struggles early on his college career, though he has had more bright spots as of late. He is a very skilled offensive player, with the ability to step out to the perimeter and knock down jumpers consistently. Though he doesn’t have the same skill level as a traditional post player, he does draw fouls well, and his ability to hit free throws at a high percentage is a great perk for a big man. Turner has paid dividends already on the defensive end, where his ability to protect the rim has been important for the Longhorns. His block numbers can be misleading though, with half of his blocks coming in three games against Alcorn State, Texas-Arlington, and Lipscomb.
What he needs to improve: Turner’s biggest area where he needs to improve is his body. Right now, he doesn’t have the strength to consistently battle in the post on both ends of the floor. The added strength would also help him as a rebounder, as he can be moved to easily out of position right now. Turner emerged late in high school, and he still has a lot of little things he needs to pick up about playing the game, and that will come with experience. He will make more mistakes through his freshman year, but as long as they aren’t the same mistakes over and over, he is heading in the right direction.