Milwaukee Bucks Have A Point Guard Conundrum
By Aaron Mah
The Milwaukee Bucks are brewing (pun intended) something special.
After splitting their home-and-home against the hottest team in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks, over the weekend, the Bucks beat the semi-rejuvenated Charlotte Hornets in thrilling fashion on Monday night.
During their impressive three-game stretch, the Bucks were able to showcase a plethora of eye-raising team qualities — qualities that would suggest their staying power within the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Last Friday, the Bucks shocked the collective NBA universe by blowing out the Hawks on their home floor. What stood out the most about the game, in conjunction with the lopsided score, was how the Bucks were able to dismantle the well-oiled Hawks.
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Namely, they were able beat Atlanta at its own game — applying a chaotic brand of pressure defense, while spreading the Hawks out with their small ball lineup as the Bucks’ bench ambushed them with a barrage of 3s.
However, after the game, many chalked the convincing win up as a casualty of the 10-10-62 rule.
Specifically, there are usually 10 games out of the 82-game season when everything seems to go right — where every shot seems to fall while the other team suffers a major cold streak. Conversely, there are the other 10 games of the season when everything seemingly goes wrong — nothing is going in while the opposing team is throwing the ball into the ocean.
The ladder half of the home-and-home series with the Hawks definitely fell within the remaining 62 contests of the year — where all things are equal, and whichever team executes the best and manages to limit their mental lapses, wins.
With that being said, their loss on Saturday night was much more notable than their blowout win.
With the embarrassment of their home defeat fresh on the Hawks’ minds, Atlanta came out with a vengeance — suffocating Milwaukee from the outset with their scrambling help-conscious D as they frustrated the young Bucks by crowding the boxes and elbows. In fact, the Hawks were able to hold the Bucks to a season-low 10 first quarter points.
But, in impressive fashion, the Bucks were unfazed — playing excellent defense themselves as they ran the Hawks off of the 3-point line, while protecting the rim with John Henson‘s length and Zaza Pachulia‘s crisp rotations. Consequently, they were able to remain within striking distance despite their anemic offense.
During the second quarter, their bench would once again lead the offensive charge. Spearheaded by their small ball lineup, which features Khris Middleton and Jared Dudley as the forwards, the Bucks were able to spread the Hawks out and create a bevy of open looks.
The Hawks’ defense were especially cautious of Dudley’s presence, as he had demolished Atlanta the night prior, pouring in 24 points (his highest mark since December, 2012) on 10-10 shooting, including 4 3-pointers.
Accordingly, an advantageous Middleton took over as the bench assassin, draining corner 3 after corner 3, as he led the Bucks’ torrid comeback.
With the game in reach, the Bucks had the momentum of the game and the home crowd on their side. However, during crunch time, Hawks’ point guard, Jeff Teague, would take over the game.
The shifty point guard was in full “Playoffs Teague” mode as he was able to control the pace of the game, probe the defense, while getting his teammates, particularly his duo of versatile stretch bigs, in Al Horford and Paul Millsap, plenty of good looks down the stretch.
When the time was ripe, and the Bucks’ defense was exhausted in semi-transition, Teague would turn on the afterburners, using a simple change of pace dribble, for easy uncontested layups. Simply put, Teague had won the Hawks the game during the waning minutes as he orchestrated everything Atlanta did on offense.
Meanwhile, the Bucks’ point guards struggled down the stretch — Brandon Knight, once again, suffered from tunnel vision off of pick and roll situations as he repeatedly drove into a clogged lane without a thought of passing.
When he wasn’t barreling into three defenders, he was launching 28-footers early in the shot clock with no offensive rebounders in sight (he did make one, however).
Kendall Marshall, on the other hand, was firmly entrenched on the bench during crunch time as he was a complete non-factor throughout the game.
His 3-point shot was horribly off, he couldn’t get into the paint to create for his teammates, and as a result, he forced a handful of low-percentage interior bounce passes which led to his 0:2 assist-to-turnover ratio he had posted during his 15 minutes of play.
The difference in point guard play may have been subtle throughout the game, but in the end, it was what decided the fate of the contest.
When assessing the Bucks’ current roster, it is hard to identify their point guard of the future — specifically, someone who can control the pace of the game, negotiate pick-and-roll sets, playmaker for his teammates, while scoring on all three levels on the offensive end (from the 3-point line, mid-range, and at-the-rim).
Although Knight is an electrifying scorer, equipped with world-class straight-line speed, he lacks the natural point guard instincts to be an upper-echelon floor general.
He is, however, an ultra-competitor who goes full tilt at his opposing matchup, offensively and defensively, whenever he is on the floor — his effort can never be doubted. Moreover, he has made significant strides since coming into the league.
Particularly, he has morphed himself into a fairly efficient scorer capable of putting points up in the most analytically-friendliest of ways.
Specifically, he specializes in straight-line, quick change-of-pace drives to rim, is an above-average 3-point shooter (.399 3P%) — especially off the catch as he shoots 46.1 percent from the 3-point line in catch and shoot situations, per NBA.com — and is an excellent free throw shooter when he gets to the line (.902 FT%).
On paper, with his youth, at only 23 years of age, and his raw statistical output, one would think the Bucks would have their point guard dilemma solved for the next 10 years. But, his troubling inabilities to properly probe defenses and negotiate pick-and-rolls remain major red flags.
Not only that, Knight still has the propensity to over-penetrate, as passing is often his last resort when turning the corner. When does pass, it is usually premeditated and inaccurate. Notably, his drive-and-kicks as well as his drop-off passes usually end up at the feet or several feet behind his intended target.
If natural point guard instincts are an inborn trait, then Knight, by all indications, doesn’t have it. His back-up, Kendall Marshall, however, does. Unfortunately, he lacks Knight’s physical gifts.
As such, Bucks’ head coach Jason Kidd has used Marshall rather sparingly, usually in lineups that exploits his strengths and hides his weaknesses. In particular, Marshall often comes off the bench and orchestrates the Bucks’ second unit of small ball shooters.
With the court spread, Kidd utilizes Marshall as the initiator in spread pick-and-roll situations, usually going to his left where he can easily turn the corner for drive-and-kicks, dump offs, and pocket passes — or on the block, where Marshall can use his size (at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds) to back opposing point guards down, collapse the defense, and playmaker for his teammates.
Non-coincidentally, the Bucks shooting efficiency sky rockets when Marshall is on the floor. In fact, per 82games.com, the Bucks score at an effective field goal rate of 56.8 percent with Marshall in the game, while the number plummets to 48.7 percent when Marshall is out.
Accordingly, Kidd would insert Marshall into the starting lineup over the weekend, while moving Knight to the 2.
As the starting point guard, Marshall was not nearly as effective since Giannis Antetokounmpo is not a 3-point threat at this stage of his career, while Johnny O’Bryant‘s and Zaza Pachulia’s shooting range is limited out to the elbow extended areas of the floor.
Consequently, the interior was too clogged for any sort of penetration. In addition, Marshall is not a scoring threat himself, thus, bringing extra help over to Giannis on his quick cuts and high post drives. It is not a coincidence that Giannis struggled mightily over those 2 games.
Needless to say, the experiment did not go as well as one would hope, as after their home-and-home series, Marshall would be relegated back to the bench in favor of Middleton.
Down the line, Knight is probably better suited for the role of the sixth man scorer on a contending team. However, Knight is about to become restricted free agent this summer — so the question becomes, whether to pay him starting point guard money or sixth man money?
As for Marshall, he can still develop into a solid backup — although, he desperately needs to add some sort of mid-range game, continue to improve on his spot up 3-point shooting, and ideally, would be most effective on a team with skilled bigs, ala Memphis.
The Bucks are in an enigmatic situation — as I thoroughly detailed in a piece I wrote last week (shameless plug). Namely, the Bucks are too good to tank and draft a budding point guard prospect, like Emmanuel Mudiay. And, Giannis, as talented as he is, is not the answer to our collective dreams of a 7-foot point god.
So, the onus is on the Bucks’ front office to acquire their future lead guard through free agency and/or trade. The names are out there — Goran Dragic and Reggie Jackson are soon-to-be free agents, while Jeff Teague might eventually become available with the progression of his backup, Dennis Schröder.
The possibilities are there — let the search begin.