NBA: Determining Early Championship Contenders
By Shane Young
Current “Contenders”
By the historical book of NBA champions (21 of the past 25 title winners have finished in the top 11 of both offensive and defensive rating), it’s been proven that the best way to reach a title is to achieve equilibrium.
Without balance, you’re a lopsided gang, with your weakest end being exposed later on in the playoffs. Take a gander at the 2013-14 Indiana Pacers, and how they struggled to score at all in crucial road games during the East Finals. Glance over at the 2011-12 Boston Celtics, who would’ve knocked off Miami in the East Finals if they had ANY consistent offensive flow.
In today’s NBA, there’s five teams that achieve great balance.
Here’s your top 11 in Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating so far this season:
Offensive Rating
1. Toronto Raptors — 115.8
2. Dallas Mavericks — 114.4
3. Los Angeles Clippers — 112.3
4. Cleveland Cavaliers — 110.8
5. Chicago Bulls — 109.4
6. Memphis Grizzlies — 109.3
7. Portland Trail Blazers — 109.0
8. New Orleans Pelicans — 109.0
9. Golden State Warriors — 108.8
10. Phoenix Suns — 108.7
11. Atlanta Hawks — 108.0
Now, for the more important end:
Defensive Rating
1. Golden State Warriors — 99.9
2. Portland Trail Blazers — 101.1
3. Houston Rockets — 101.5
4. Washington Wizards — 102.3
5. Oklahoma City Thunder — 102.5
6. Indiana Pacers — 102.9
7. Atlanta Hawks — 103.1
8. San Antonio Spurs — 103.3
9. Memphis Grizzlies — 104.3
10. Milwaukee Bucks — 104.4
11. Chicago Bulls — 104.5
Notice anything about the teams in bold? You should.
They are the only five teams that currently meet the criteria of placing in both the top 11 of offensive and defensive rating.
Listen, I know the initial threshold is “top 10” and not extending it to “top 11.” But, you have to understand that these figures tend to fluctuate with every game that’s played. Just last week, Golden State was the fifth best offense in the league. One Christmas Day loss later, they fell to ninth. So, these teams switch places every day.
However, for the most part, these units have been in the top 10 of both areas for the entire season:
- Golden State Warriors — Net Rating of +8.9
- Portland Trail Blazers — Net Rating of +7.9
- Memphis Grizzlies — Net Rating of +5.0
- Atlanta Hawks — Net Rating of +4.9
- Chicago Bulls — Net Rating of +4.9
It’s important to note that Net Rating is actually the difference in a team’s offensive rating and defensive rating. It depicts how many points (per 100 possessions) they’re scoring more than their opposition.
To accurately compare these teams to the last 25 NBA champions (since 1990), I accumulated the average ratings (on both ends) for the previous champions.
In the last 25 years, the average offensive rating for an NBA champion has been 109.5. Those 25 teams have ranked, on average, 6.5 in the league.
In the last 25 years, the average defensive rating for an NBA champion has been 101.9. Those 25 teams have ranked, on average, 4.9 in the league.
If you use Net Rating for these last 25 champions (on average), you get a rating of +7.6. The only two teams that currently meet that criteria are the Warriors and Trail Blazers. It certainly fits, since those two have combined for a 49-12 record this season. They also sit in the first two spots of the West playoff picture.
Currently, there are no teams that meet the average championship criteria (since 1990) of an offensive rating of 109.5 AND defensive rating of 101.9. But, we’re not even halfway through the season yet. It’s just an early picture of what the goal should be for these organizations.
Does it necessarily mean those five teams are the only ones I can see claiming an NBA title?
Absolutely not.
The pool of championship contenders should include seven teams. Those five that are equally balanced, along with the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
Poor Scott Brooks has yet to have his precious lineup of Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams for 10 games. That lineup has went 7-2 on the season, and completely wrecked everyone on the schedule. When they have their MVP back in full swing, with zero interruptions, they’ll start to meet the offensive criteria. Heck, they already rank fifth in defense without Durant.
As for the Spurs, the health window has been closing and closing as the days go by. Kawhi Leonard has played in 22 of San Antonio’s 32 games thus far, and his true shooting percentage has dropped from a career-high 60.2 percent last year, to a career-low 53.9 percent this year.
When the Spurs turn the corner around March, they’ll also squeak into the top 10 of both metrics. Their average ranking in both is an impressive 10.5, considering their injuries and old age. They aren’t even far behind, ranking 13th offensively. Oh, and did we forget that the defending champions always reach the postseason the following year?
So, with that in mind, we have seven teams that are shaping up to be your top title contenders.
Which of those seven are actually contenders come playoff time? Which are going to fall into the “pretender” category?
Find out in Part II, where we’ll dive into the current leviathans of the NBA sea.