NBA: Determining Early Championship Contenders

The “Championship Method”

First, it’s time to acknowledge and appreciate how much better the NBA’s playoff system is than the NCAA’s way of declaring a champion.

Obviously, people crave and covet the thought of “win or go home” for each and every game in March Madness. But, does is it an equation that equals a true champion? It’s unlikely. In the NCAA’s system of their 68-team tournament, there is never any guarantee of the best overall team in the country taking home the gold.

Therefore, there really isn’t any “championship method” for teams on the collegiate level. You just have to get blazing hot at the right time of the year, mid-March.

In the professional form of basketball, you have to grind out four wins in each series to advance to the next round. It discounts the ability of one team getting lucky or finding a rhythm for just one game. In 2010 and 2011, Butler was not the second-best basketball team in the country. They were just the hottest, the most driven in March. I can’t be the only one that enjoys watching two juggernauts go head-to-head in a championship series, and that’s what the NBA hands us.

Each year, you can look at the NBA Playoff bracket and evaluate who the true “contenders” are. There’s a method for it, and it’s one that’s played out through the regular season.

Obtaining a Top 10 offensive unit, along with a Top 10 defensive powerhouse is the key.

Trust anyone that’s ever watched a full season: it’s easier said than done. There’s 30 squads out there, even including the ones not interested in competing for the playoffs (Philadelphia). To say you have a top 10 roster in both critical components of the game is a rarity — it’s always just a handful of teams, at the most.

It’s definitely the correct path to follow, if you can manage the task and stay disciplined throughout a season. Obtaining top 10 honors in both classifications has typically meant championship success.

Don’t believe me?

Since 1990, there’s 13 years of NBA champions. Now, take a look at the next 12 years, starting from 2003:

Important note:  “Offensive Rating” is the estimated amount of points a teams scores per 100 possessions. “Defensive Rating” is the estimated amount of points a team allows per 100 possessions.”

You certainly can’t make this up.

18 of the last 25 NBA champions have finished in the top 10 of both offensive rating and defensive rating. It means the formula is 72 percent effective in creating a championship winner. Since 1990, three other teams have been extremely close to the “top 10” accomplishment, but still won NBA titles. Those were the 1990 Pistons (11th in offense), 1999 Spurs (11th in offense), and the 2010 Lakers (11th in offense). It makes 21 of the last 25 champions that finished in the top 11 of both. Now we’re talking about an 84 percent effective rate.

Thus, if you do need a little margin for error, you better make it the offensive end. Stiff defenses have always dominated the championship runs, unless there’s a massive unstoppable force wrecking through the paint (Shaquille O’Neal).

If you’re thinking just the NBA champions in recent years is too narrow of a scope, you’re likely not alone. Nothing is wrong, for some franchises, of falling short in the conference finals. Sure, it’s bitter disappointment. But, it leaves you with the thought in mind that your team is still in the close mix for a future title.

So, observe how the recent conference finalists (teams that didn’t win the ring) fared on both ends of the floor. It actually doesn’t always meet the top 10 criteria:

2014:

• Pacers:  23rd in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
• Thunder:  6th in offensive rating, 6th in defensive rating
• Heat:  5th in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating

2013:

• Pacers:  20th in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
• Grizzlies:  17th in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating
• Spurs:  7th in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating

As you can see, there’s not always a correlation between having a top 10 unit in both, and reaching title contention. But, there’s a trend:  For the most part, if you can’t manage a top 10 in both categories, you better be top notch  in getting defensive stops. For crying out loud, 2013 featured the top three defenses in the entire league once the conference finals arrived.

When critics claim that it’s a “simple thing to do” and that “good teams shouldn’t find it hard to finish top 10 in both,” it truly irks me.

People still don’t understand and sympathize with how grueling and difficult it is to finish in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rating.

The greatest challenge is fatigue and how you manage it, without a doubt.

Think about it.

Teams (such as Memphis and Indiana) are employing an incredible amount of energy trying to be the best defenses we’ve seen in years. When they’re using up majority of their vitality and fire on the defensive end, they’re basically left gassed in the fourth quarters of close games.

Regardless if they’re professionals or not, regardless if you think “grown men should be feeling lucky playing a sport for a living,” you can’t fathom going out there and giving it your all on both ends each night. That’s why being a top 10 in both units is such a special trait. It takes the utmost intensity. Sometimes, you just have to put fatigue on the back-burner and continue to compete.

Those are the teams you should respect with championship recognition.

There’s only five teams meeting the contender threshold so far into the season. Who are they? Are they real contenders?

Next: Current Contenders