Indiana Pacers: Roy Hibbert’s Recent Surge Is a Good Sign

Since their first trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2013, the Indiana Pacers have been home to the most inconsistent and under-achieving center in the league.

Roy Hibbert, who I deemed as a top 10 NBA center before the season started, hit the lowest of all possible lows last season. During the month of April — which included an entire playoff series against the Hawks — Hibbert averaged just 5.3 points per game while shooting 28-of-94 from the field. Yes, during the 13 games from April 2 to May 3, Hibbert shot 29.8 percent.

For a center that was fresh off an All-Star bid, standing 7’2″, it pretty much left you cockeyed. You still can’t believe it to this day.

Entering the new 2014-15 season, there were little to no expectations for these Pacers. They had just lost Paul George before free agency was even over, and Lance Stephenson high-tailed it to Charlotte to be under the wing of Michael Jordan’s ownership.

Yet, there were still high expectations for Roy Hibbert. Extremely, probably absurdly high expectations.

In no way, after working with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for weeks, was Hibbert supposed to mirror the deficiencies on the offensive end any longer. He wasn’t supposed to transform into Kareem himself, or even be a top five offensive force on the block, but improvements in style and patience were projected.

In November of the fresh new season, Hibbert was making slight advancements in his footwork and back-to-the-basket game. In the Pacers’ first 12 games, Hibbert already had six games of scoring over 15 points. To any other top 10 center last year, this would be nothing to have a frenzy over. They are expected to be the anchors of inside-out playstyles and provide openings for shooters, and Hibbert was never a guy that thrived in that role.

Hibbert’s rebounding in the first 12 games wasn’t much to get riled up about, grabbing just 6.5 per game. Although a few of those nights resulted in double-digit efforts on the glass, others resulted in disappearances by the big man. Too many times will he be completely absent in terms of aggression down low, and that still remains an issue.

After missing four games with lower body injuries, (November 24-29), Hibbert returned and was relatively pedestrian in the middle for Indiana. From December 4-13, he only registered one game with double-digit points, and only one with double-digit rebounds.  During that span, Indiana lost all six games, as the Pacers were in the midst of their eight-game losing streak.

When Hibbert struggles in the two most important qualities as an offensive center — creating room for teammates and securing rebounds — it allows little room for error.

Just recently, Hibbert has either been influenced by his teammates to improve offensively, or Vogel has stressed the significance of team balance.

In his last three games, it’s been a completely different frontcourt force. Playing Minnesota, New Orleans, and Detroit, Hibbert has averaged 16 points in the last three, and kept his total turnovers to a minimum (only two). The rebounding has still been an issue, but the defensive impetus hasn’t faded away.

In one of those wins (Pacers went 2-1 in those three games), Hibbert blocked seven shots against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. In fact, on the season, he’s actually the same defensive presence as he was the previous year. If you can recall, he was in the running for Defensive Player of the Year, before he dropped off near the All-Star break and it slipped out of his hands to Joakim Noah.

Last year, Hibbert blocked 2.2 shots per game and everyone started to jump on the bandwagon of believing he’s the most important defender in the league. In some ways, he actually became the most valuable player in the league for his efforts and defensive prowess. Without Hibbert, there’s zero chance Indiana would sport the No. 1 defense in terms of defensive rating, allowing just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.

Now, averaging 2.1 blocks per game this season, he’s actually been better in terms of shot-rejecting in relation to his minutes played. Per 100 possessions, Hibbert rejected 3.9 shots per game last season. 26 games into this season, he’s at an even higher mark. He blocks 4.1 shots per 100 possessions, which is the second-most in his career. During the 2012-13 campaign, he was on another level — reaching 4.8 blocks per 100 possessions.

Much of it has to do with Indiana ranking 20th in the league in pace — meaning their games run much slower than others — but it’s still remarkable that America is just now buying into his defensive strength.

In his last three games, Hibbert’s shine has truly come from the offensive end. Each of the three games ended with Hibbert getting at least 10 shot opportunities. In each, he connected on at least 50 percent of his attempts. In his last 31 shots, he’s been 51.6 percent efficient by making 16.

While Hibbert did foul out in the road loss to Detroit, he was holding his own on the offensive end against the tough front line Stan Van Gundy has at his disposal. He drew foul after foul, getting to the line 10 times in such a revitalized environment. Detroit was joyful for getting rid of Josh Smith a few days prior, and it showed with their intensity and passion on both ends.

When Hibbert stepped to the line, he proved why he is one of the top shooters from the line when it comes to big men. He sits at fourth overall in free throw shooting centers this season, at 80.9 percent. For a perspective spin, LeBron James shoots just 73.8 percent from the line. Indiana does have reasons to be appreciative of their big man that has a soft touch from 15-feet.

In Hibbert’s last three games, his true shooting percentage has been a high 60.3 percent. While it only ranks 13th of all centers who’s played 24+ minutes in the last three games, it’s certainly a lot to be optimistic about.

Think about it. On the season, Hibbert shoots 50.7 percent in terms of true shooting. It’s barely over his results from last year (49.9 percent) and the year before (48.9 percent).

But as of late, he’s going above and beyond what people expected of him. Some of it can be the direct results of re-installing the team’s starting point guard, George Hill.

Other parts of it can be the decision to give Hibbert less minutes and keeping his energy level high during later stages of the game. In those three games, he’s played 24.3 minutes per game, well under what he played through the month of November (28.1).

For the Pacers, it shouldn’t be all about trying to reach the playoffs. They own their 2015 draft pick for June’s (once again) loaded draft, and they could’ve been in great position to get lower in the standings to compete for a talent from Duke, Arizona, or Kentucky. Those boys are the truth.

However, Larry Bird has too much pride to tank. He won’t swallow it, neither. Not even if it makes him better in the long-haul.

At 10-20, Indiana is still in the mix for a final playoff spot in the East. They will always be in the hunt, because it’s the East — where you can win 37 games and reach the postseason as an eight seed. Currently, they’re on pace to win 28 games this year, which is obviously short of where they need to be.

It’s still unknown if superstar Paul George would reject the idea of returning if they did reach the playoffs as a low seed, so that’s becoming the greatest storyline to anticipate as April approaches.

But, with Hibbert stepping his game up to these kind of levels since Dec. 21, this team isn’t putting the idea of 40+ wins out of their imagination.