Should Carmelo Anthony Still Be Considered A Franchise Player?

Carmelo Anthony is a professional scorer — by now, everyone knows that. In fact, since entering the league in 2003, only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James have scored more points than Carmelo.

As a pure scorer, Carmelo has a myriad of moves.

He can bully defenders in the post and wrestle his way to the basket; as well, he can face his defender up in the high post and blow by them with his signature first step or execute his picture-perfect one dribble pull-up; he can also dance around the perimeter, shake-and-bake defenders while setting up his patented off-the-dribble 3.

Although, Kevin Durant may possess the title as the league’s most devastating and efficient scorer, Carmelo Anthony is definitely the most versatile offensive weapon in the association.

In addition, he is a highly underrated passer — especially when playing the role of the pick-and-roll negotiator. Carmelo was able to showcase his deft passing skills during the 2011-12 season when, then-New York Knicks head coach, Mike D’Antoni, utilized Carmelo as the Knicks’ de facto point forward.

In said role, Carmelo was able average 4.1 assists per game before Linsanity struck.

Accordingly, his accomplished package of offensive skills earned him a five-year, $124 million deal this offseason by re-signing with the New York Knicks.

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The Knicks also re-branded their organizational hierarchy this spring by hiring 13-time NBA champion (two times as a player and 11 times as a head coach), Phil Jackson, to serve as the team’s president.

Subsequently, Jackson would hire his former point guard, and five-time NBA champion himself, Derek Fisher, as his personal protégé and Knicks’ head coach.

The optimism and positive vibes would be short-lived, however, as the Knicks has had a brutal start to the season. At present, New York has the second-worst record in the league, at 5-26.

The season, thus far, for Carmelo Anthony has gone just as bad — as through 31 games, the Carmelo-triangle experiment has been an unmitigated disaster.

Specifically, the preceding focal points of triangle were either, quick catch-and-go masters — like Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal — or a probe-and-go artist — in Kobe Bryant.

With Carmelo, he is more of a catch, hold, survey, stare the defender in the eye, let the shot clock wind down to 10, then go, type of player. As a result, not only does his style inherently stagnate the offense, it is also not conducive to the cuts and reads the triangle offense is put in place to produce.

It may seem like just yesterday when the Class of 2003 entered the league, but in a blink of an eye, Carmelo is now 30 (will turn 31 in May) and is in the midst of his 12th season in the NBA. More alarmingly, Carmelo is about to reach 30,000 in career minutes, most likely within the next five games.

Historically, after reaching the 30,000-career minute-threshold, wing players usually experience a gradual decline in their overall production, as shown below:

Various Players Production, Before and After, Reaching 30,000 Minutes*

*All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.

**Other wings of this generation, such as Peja Stojakovic, Richard Jefferson, and Rashard Lewis, all experienced sharp declines before reaching the 30,000 minute mark.*Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

As such, with a pending knee surgery and his innate physical style of play, an inevitable Carmelo decline is forthcoming — sooner, rather than later

In fact, it may be happening this season. Specifically, his points per 36 minutes, true shooting percentage, win shares per 48 minutes, and PER have all progressively dipped since his MVP-caliber season in 2012-13 — and has experienced a notable decline in all four categories, thus far, this year.

The good news for Knicks’ fans, however, is that New York actually owns their draft pick this year, which, by all indications, will be a top-5 pick.

Thus, the question becomes, whether the Knicks would want to build their team around their new franchise pillar — a current college freshman, or age equivalent, prospect, who will most likely take two or three years of development before making any material impact on winning — alongside an aging Carmelo Anthony — who’s looking to win now— or trade Carmelo, while his stock is still relatively high, to a fringe contender for a package of expiring contracts, young prospects, and future draft picks.

Of course, if the ladder strategic option is chosen, Carmelo would have to agree to waive his no-trade clause. However, a team like the Washington Wizards would give Carmelo enough incentive, from their championship contending aspirations to a homecoming narrative, to bolt from the Big Apple to the Nation’s Capital.

Additionally, the Wizards are on the cusp of legitimacy, and a Carmelo acquisition would firmly entrench the Washington professional basketball team in every championship conversation. Carmelo would also add an element to the Wizards they currently lack — the ability to play small, as they could effectively use Carmelo as their stretch/small-ball 4.

In turn, Washington can present a package of Andre Miller (expiring contract), Nene Hilario (contract expires in 2016), Otto Porter Jr. (the third overall pick in 2013, and 2015 and 2016 first-round picks.

In said scenario, the Knicks can then use next season as an experimental year by assembling a team full of retreads and misfits to effectively try to discover any hidden gems.

Meanwhile, they can concurrently develop their prospects, which, in this instance, would be the Shane Larkin‘s, Tim Hardaway Jr.’s, Otto Porter Jr.’s, and their 2015 draft pick — whether its Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, or Emmanuel Mudiay — through ample playing time.

Subsequently, when the summer of 2016 hits, which will feature a free agent class that includes Kevin Durant, Joakim Noah, and Mike Conley Jr., the Knicks can look to make the appropriate splash by signing a player in his prime and about to enter his peak.

We are reaching a point of no return with the Knicks. The time is now for the Zen Master to start working his magic.

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