Why The Miami Heat Would Be Wise To Gamble On Josh Smith
By Sam Richmond
The Detroit Pistons shockingly released forward Josh Smith on Monday and there are already a number of teams reportedly interested in the 29-year-old.
Among them: the Miami Heat, according to ESPN’s Marc Stein.
It’s clear the Heat are serious about signing Smith, as the team formally applied for the Disabled Player Exception Tuesday because of Josh McRoberts’ season-ending knee injury. The Heat want to use the $2.65 million DPE to sign Smith, according to Stein.
Putting aside the fact that contenders such as the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks are also pursuing Smith, which will no doubt make it difficult for Miami to land him, would it even be the smart move for the Heat to acquire Smith?
It’s certainly a tricky question.
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In an NBA that values efficiency more than ever, Smith is one of the league’s most inefficient players. In 28 games this season, Smith shot 39.1 percent from the field on 14.0 attempts per game, 24.3 percent from beyond the arc on 1.3 three-point attempts per game and 46.8 percent from the foul line on four free throw attempts per game.
Smith’s shot selection has been a big problem for years. That’s it’s only getting worse now is scary for a few reasons, one of which is that it would prove that he’s not exactly willing to change his style of play even when the evidence suggests he would be better for doing so.
Furthermore, one has to figure that Smith was somewhat of a locker room problem in Detroit. Teams generally don’t cut players that are are owed more than $30 million in two-plus years without there being some sort of problem behind the scenes. That should worry suitors such as the Heat.
However, given all of that, the answer to the question posed earlier is yes, the Heat would be wise to gamble on Smith.
The fact of the matter is that Smith fills a big need for the Heat at the power forward position. Miami’s frontcourt is thin after losing McRoberts and Smith could come in and be a big contributor immediately.
Also, for all of his issues, Smith is actually an effective rebounder and defender due to his length and athleticism. Smith ranks 15th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, according to ESPN, and is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game this season. Those two skills are much needed on a Heat team that ranks dead last in rebounds per game and 25th in points allowed per possession, according to Basketball Reference.
Obviously, the big concern in regards to Smith is how would he fit in offensively. But the Heat have the ideal infrastructure here to make this work. Erik Spoelstra has been proven to be a very good offensive coach over the years, especially with versatile talents. Also, the Heat have veteran, championship-winning players that could, along with Spoelstra, attempt to keep Smith in check when it comes to his shot selection.
There’s no doubt this move would be a risk. Like we discussed earlier, Smith hasn’t shown a willingness to change in his previous stops, so it’s far from a guarantee that Smith won’t simply cause many of the same problems in Miami than he did in Detroit.
But, at this point, it’s Hail Mary time for the Heat.
This is a 13-16 team that doesn’t look like it’s capable of being one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference at the moment. That’s a big problem, considering Miami is in win-now mode.
The Heat are filled with veterans and will only be making a first-round pick in 2015 if they land a top-1o pick. This isn’t a team playing for the future or for future draft picks. So, why not take a chance on Smith?
Miami doesn’t have a lot to lose and there’s at least a chance Smith helps the team turn things around.
There’s no getting around it: the Heat are in a bad spot right now, making a big gamble the best move.