Just two days after being waived by Stan Van Gundy and the ship he’s running in Detroit, Josh Smith is joining the Houston Rockets.
According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, Smith has agreed to sign with Houston once he clears waivers this afternoon. Smith’s deal is just for one year, using Houston’s $2 million biannual exception they still owned.
Merry Christmas, people living in Rockets Nation … I guess.
Is this what you truly wanted? Is this the present you envisioned poking out of your stocking on Christmas Eve, a blood-red shot chart with occasional spurts of athleticism, arrogance, and laughable shot selection?
If that’s the case, Santa came early for James Harden and Dwight Howard. Here, Houston has two superstars starving like a winter bear for their first championship, and management is deciding to take a little gamble by bringing Smith along.
One thing can be said about Daryl Morey. He’s as competitive as any other general manager out there, it’s just that he tends to display it differently. He’ll crunch the numbers, talk them over with Kevin McHale, and act accordingly to the roster changes he needs to make.
Only this time, some could suggest that Morey didn’t act accordingly, and he didn’t need to make any immediate roster additions.
Houston sits at 20-7, with their defensive anchor (Howard) missing 44.5 percent of the season thus far. With Howard in the lineup, Houston is 12-3 this season, and they’re cruising along in the middle of the Western Conference. Even without Terrence Jones (leg injury), they likely didn’t have to revitalize their roster in order to get a homecourt seed in the West. After all, Harden is the leading candidate for Most Valuable Player votes, and he’s probably setting up to win his first scoring title this season.
For the meantime, it seemed all was well in Houston, with each component on the floor stepping up to fill some of the void.
Then, you have the play-style concern that people figured would scare Houston off.
If you aren’t aware of the Rockets’ philosophy by now, perhaps it’s time to start paying close attention to them. They surround the perimeter with shooting at four of their five positions, run innovative pick-and-rolls to get Harden in driving mode, and thrive on kick-out penetration. For them, it’s 3-pointer, layup, free throw, or bust.
To most, that actually seems like a well-rounded offense, but it’s completely straying away from the mid-range attack. It’s also straying away from the 10-15 feet range in the paint, which is considered “close” range.
Just 27 games into the season, Houston has already drilled 316 shots from 3-point range. That ranks first, by a considerable amount. They’ve also taken 923, which is a reckless 34.2 per game. While they’ve been high in volume, they’ve only ranked 18th overall in 3-point efficiency so far, though (34.2 percent). In terms of percentage, they’re even below the Lakers (34.8 percent) and the Grizzlies (35.5 percent). Both of those equal teams that take a lot of heat for their lack of shooting talent, but Houston has indeed hit a dip in their outside efficiency.
Still, their 316 made 3-pointers puts them on an historic pace. Stretched out to an 82-game season, Houston is on track to nail 959 3-pointers by mid-April. Just two seasons ago, the Knicks set the NBA’s record for most 3-pointers made in a season. That was only 845. The Rockets may not just snap it, but they could shatter it.
So, ask yourself, how does this relate to Josh Smith? You wouldn’t be the only one pondering the same thought.
The fact of the matter is, Smith is nothing close to a “stretch four.” It’s exactly what Morey and the Rockets desired in the free agency period, when they threw $88 million at Chris Bosh in order to lure him to H-town. It didn’t work, but the principle was being laid on the table: Houston desperately wants to surround Dwight Howard with four competent outside shooters. After all, Bosh knocked down 34 percent of his triples last season with LeBron James running the show, and he’s already hit 34 of his 88 attempts from outside this season as the new first option.
Smith provides the Rockets with nothing of the sort. Smith hasn’t made at least 31 percent of his 3-pointers since 2010-11, with the Hawks. We’re talking about the same player that forced Stan Van Gundy to watch 37 hurls from 3-point range this season, only for NINE to fall through the net. Granted, there was absolutely zero spacing in Detroit before this waiving, and Jodie Meeks was injured for the start of the season. But, still, he’s missed time and time again with games on the line, or made the most head-scratching decisions possible in the fourth quarter.
Of all 60 small forwards and power forwards that qualify, there is one that ranks 60th in Adjusted Field Goal Percentage this season. It’s Josh Smith, who’s sporting a deplorable 40.3 percent. 60th.
This is the player Houston fought every other Western Conference contender to land? More importantly, this is the player any of the top West teams think will make them better suited in the playoffs?
The Rockets, of all teams, are the same team that depends on the mid-range attack the least of any other in the league. Per NBA.com., they’ve only scored 5.9 percent of their points from the mid-range area this season. It puts them in 30th by a wide margin, considering the 29th ranked team (76ers) score 11.1 percent of their points from mid-range.
To put that into perspective, Houston has scored 2,703 points this season. It would be around 160 points of 2,703 Houston has scored from mid-range.
Now, they’re bringing on a guy that takes 25.8 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet from the basket. With Detroit, that’s how Smith operated. While you have to give Smith credit for limiting his 3-point launching this year (he went from 3.4 attempts per game to 1.3 for Van Gundy), you have to imagine he’s going to get more looks in a Rockets jersey.
This season, Houston’s primary forwards haven’t been taking mid-range shots in volume:
- Trevor Ariza takes just 5.9 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet
- Terrence Jones takes 10.4 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet
- Donatas Motiejunas takes 1.7 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet
- Kostas Papanikolaou takes 4.9 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet
It doesn’t add up for Smith to join the mix, when a fourth of his game relies on the mid-range attack. That’s where proper coaching will have to be installed, and Kevin McHale seems fit to change one’s outlook on the game.
McHale takes a lot of heat from Rockets pessimists that believe he doesn’t know how to coach with the right guidance, but he’s ingrained a defensive mind for this team to accept. Long gone are the days of Houston being ridiculed for not being able to stop a turtle carrying a backpack. Long gone are the days of Harden being publicly embarrassed for his defensive day-dreaming.
Could Smith, whose Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) is actually +3.2, help Houston even more? They already rest at second overall in defensive rating, holding opponents to 100.7 points per 100 possessions. The only team greater at defending on each possession is the Golden State Warriors (100.1 allowed). Some struggle to believe that Smith is a work-horse defensively — because of his reputation in Detroit — but it’s important to understand his waiving was primarily resting on his offense.
And, as we know, offense isn’t necessarily a huge concern in the regular season when Harden is having a career year.
Why It Could Make Sense
In the Western Conference, the goal has been to stockpile as much talent as you possibly can. That is, unless you’re the Spurs and want to just keep partying like it’s 1999 (literally).
With the Clippers running with a “big three” that looks to be playoff-ready after last year’s second-round loss, the Warriors’ unblemished starting five that holds a 23-4 record, and Portland coming into fruition with their two-man rampage, Houston felt a need for improvement.
While I’ve made the case that it doesn’t necessarily improve their system and ideology, it does help in certain aspects.
They’ve gained veteran talent — Smith is in his 11th year, drafted the year after LeBron James — and he’s one of the more physically gifted forwards in the game.
Like LeBron, Smith is in the 6’9″ neighborhood, weighing around the same. Smith is a locomotive that has illustrated the highest level of athleticism year after year. He’s never been with a title contender, and never been well-coached.
In Houston, he has that chance.
McHale isn’t Phil Jackson or Gregg Popovich when it comes to a basketball mind, but he does have the help of others that can turn Smith’s career around. For a while, it’s appeared as if Smith was headed to the scraps of the NBA, to the point where all he did to your team was hurt your winning chances. In the East, there’s no way a guy of Smith’s veteran caliber should be struggling to win six games for his team.
However, with the possible guidance and leadership of Dwight Howard, James Harden, and especially Hakeem Olajuwon around the facility, this could be a transformation.
In the NBA, there’s nothing more valuable than playing alongside people you enjoy off the court. It puts you in a more profound sense of respect for one another, and you already are familiar with one’s tendencies and personalities on the court. Smith has a chance to live this reality, as he’s being paired with Howard. The two of them have been close friends behind the scenes for years, as they played AAU together in Atlanta back in the day.
Just ask Miami, who captured two titles due to their bond on the court, especially during the postseason runs. Take a gander at San Antonio, who wins repeatedly because their three core players have been close for years. Howard and Smith connect with one another, and for that reason, I can’t see Smith’s wacky play-style causing too much to boil over. This could be a great beginning.
For Houston’s sake, it better be.
There’s no more excuses.
Harden couldn’t win in his first year with Houston because he didn’t have a capable center. Then, Harden and Howard couldn’t win in 2013-14 because they didn’t have enough aggressive bodies around them.
Now, adding the talent and strength of Smith to the rotation –it’s looking to be conference finals or bust in Houston. The city won’t accept any less.
Ask around the streets. Would a second-round exit be enough playoff success to keep this team in good spirits? Not a chance. Not with their level of veteran skill in the starting five, if Smith indeed keeps a starting spot after a couple weeks.
They now have the pieces to contend stronger than last season. The fate is in the hands of McHale.
Don’t be surprised if it crashes and burns.