Fantasy Basketball: The Josh Smith Release
Things are looking up for the fantasy prospects of the Detroit Pistons with the release of forward Josh Smith. Smith bogged down various aspects of the Pistons attack that had the third worst offensive efficiency in the NBA.
With Smith on the bench Detroit shoots 4 percent better as a team, takes 1.3 more threes and averages almost five more points per 48 minutes. The Pistons ORtg goes from 94.6 points per 100 possessions with Smith playing to 103.6 with him on the bench.
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The dreadful three-man combination of Smith, Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe that saw 174 minutes together will never have to be watched again (throw confetti in the air).
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The first and most obvious beneficiary of Smith being gone is Greg Monroe. Monroe has come off the bench in 11 of the last 12 games and has averaged only 29 minutes per game this season. That’s the smallest amount since his rookie year, the previous three seasons he’s played between 31 and 33 MPG.
Per game Monroe is also averaging the fewest points per game since his rookie season at 14.7, but per 36 minutes he’s actually at a career high. His rebounding is a career-high per 36 minutes plus he’s shooting free throws better. Monroe will get more touches and more minutes.
If you have Monroe you’re about to get a nice boost.
The other beneficiaries are the Pistons wing players. There will be more space on the court without Smith rooming around the perimeter launching bad threes and mid range jumpers. Jodie Meeks and Kyle Singler should both see more time and if you need threes have value. I like Meeks for your more standard league and Singler in deeper leagues.
I’d also keep an eye on Jonas Jerebko, but he’s more a monitor than immediate add.
Andre Drummond has been on a tear and that should continue. I don’t think you will see a huge impact in his numbers, but with better spacing there is the possibility he gets even better. That being said it’s not like Greg Monroe is an outside shooter.
Monroe is shooting miserably this season anywhere outside of three feet so the lane will still be cramped when these two play together.
From Smith’s perspective it will be interesting to see where he lands. The Heat would be the best option for his fantasy prospects because playing with Chris Bosh and under Erik Spoelstra I could see his skills being maximized.
Bosh occupies the midrange and shooting from deep so Smith would be forced into a role playing him closer to the basket whether through posts up or diving to the rim after setting on-ball screens. Dallas creates a similar situation taking over the Brandan Wright role, but the Heat offer a bigger volume of minutes.
I’m not sure what to make of what his role would be with the Rockets. If he goes to the Lakers I’d expect to see the same disastrous issues with the field goal percentage we saw in Detroit under Byron Scott who hasn’t proven to be able to control the players on his roster (HELLOOOOOO, Kobe Bryant!).
I’ll get more in depth on Smith when he finally lands somewhere officially.