Boston Celtics: Does Rajon Rondo Trade Kill Playoff Hopes?
The Boston Celtics sit at 10-15, just a half game behind the Brooklyn Nets for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. After the Rajon Rondo trade to the Dallas Mavericks, the Celtics find themselves in an interesting position — are they better off after sending away their best player and should they still make a run at the playoffs?
Let’s tackle the first question, of whether the Celtics are better off without Rondo. They received Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, a 2015 first-round pick (protected) and a 2016 second-round pick. As with any trade that involves a star, we can’t objectively assess this trade based on what we know today.
A HESITANT YES
Wright is a serviceable big man who was leading the league in field goal percentage at the time of the trade (and still is at 74.3 percent). Whether he’s more of a product of the system he was in remains to be seen, but the fact that 85.3 percent of his field goals come from inside three feet tells me he’s a put-back specialist, a dunker and not much else. Defensively, his 6-foot-9 frame is sneaky-long and his 2.9 blocks per-36 minutes will attest.
Crowder, the 6-foot-7 energetic swingman out of Marquette University, showed signs of improvement in his sophomore season, but his minutes fell in his third season in Dallas, helping to pave the way to his trade. His 11.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.0 steals per-36 minutes leave a bit to be desired and if his scoreless seven-minute debut is any indication, he won’t be getting much time unless Jeff Green gets moved.
The best days are far behind for Jameer Nelson, who is now 32 years old and hasn’t played more than 70 games in a season since 2010-11. In the short-term, Nelson will receive the most minutes, but he’s simply a solid veteran who will provide leadership and guidance — not necessarily big wins. He’s got a player option for 2015-16 at just $2.8 million, so he’s a bargain and is of worth.
As is usually the case, the draft picks are like lottery tickets. The first-rounder from the Mavericks is likely to be in the 20’s and those picks are a crapshoot at best. If anything, it’s a good spot for a draft-and-stash or additional trade fodder. Again, there’s value, but we don’t know how much just yet.
So back to our question — is that haul enough for Rondo, who was averaging 8.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 10.8 assists and 1.7 steals per game at the time of the trade? Considering Rondo’s contract was about to be up, there was a real concern over Rajon’s surly demeanor and his surgically-repaired knee won’t get any healthier, I offer up a very hesitant yes.
You’re never going to get immediate, equal value when dealing a star — especially in their contract year. Opposing GM’s know (and knew) that Danny Ainge and the Celtics brass were somewhat up against a wall. They have Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley as their backcourt of the future and there was less and less room for a 33 percent foul shooter at the point late in games.
CAN THEY STILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
The Eastern Conference is a
minefield
battleground
playground in which teams with losing records have a legitimate opportunity to make the league’s second season. As of today, the Nets would make the No. 8 seed, despite being four games below .500. They’d get a tasty rematch of last year’s series against the Toronto Raptors, but that’s neither here nor there.
It’s simple — the Celtics can absolutely make the playoffs. They’re still essentially the same type of team they were with Rondo — they’re hard workers who are going to pound the glass and try to take advantage of their hustle and energy to sneak past opponents. They’ve outrebounded six opponents in a row and haven’t allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50 percent during that stretch.
Boston is playing good basketball as of late, going 6-5 in December, but if there’s one major spot that they’ll miss Rondo, it’s on defense. With that, they don’t want to play those grind-it-out games than end in the 80’s, either. Boston excels when they can hold their opponents beneath 100 points (7-2) and love forcing turnovers that lead to easy buckets. Regardless of their defense, when the Celtics score under 100 points themselves, they’re winless (0-7).
The loss of Rondo will hurt defensively, though Bradley and Smart can hold down the fort. It’s Nelson’s role that causes a bit of a break in the chain. He’s no defender — he allows his opponents an eFG% of 54 percent and a 17.0 PER — and when Smart/Bradley need rest or hit some foul trouble, Nelson won’t be able to keep the defensive intensity up.
As a team, the Celtics are just 28th in terms of points allowed (104.5), but they’re 14th in defensive rating. Can Nelson and Evan Turner do enough defensively to make up for the loss of Rondo on the defensive side of things? Can the Celtics adapt to moving the ball more as opposed to having Rondo dominate the ball?
Those are the questions that will need to be answered before we can call the Celtics a playoff team. In their first game with their new lineup, the Celtics scored just 84 points and shot 39.8 percent. They got to the foul line just 15 times and were blown out by a Miami Heat team without Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh.
There will be periods of frustration, periods of turmoil and a severe lack of chemistry with this club over the next few weeks. With that said, if the Celtics stand pat and don’t make the oft-rumored Green trade, then I’m willing to go out on a limb and say this team will sneak past the soon-to-be-imploded Nets for the No. 8 seed in the East.