Progression Of Jonas Valanciunas Key To Raptors’ Title Hopes
By Aaron Mah
Last season, the Toronto Raptors awakened the win-starving fans of Toronto — and not only rallied the city, but the entire nation of Canada — by unexpectedly making a midseason playoff push.
This year, the Raptors have continued to ride their wave of momentum and have rushed out to a 21-6 record – firmly entrenching Toronto at the top of the Eastern Conference standings.
Even though the Raptors have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, as 16 of their 27 contests have been played within the comfy confines of the Air Canada Centre, they have been able ambush opposing teams with their cavalcade of explosive offensive weapons. In fact, the Raptors sport the second best offense in the league, scoring 114.5 points per 100 possessions.
When I was skimming through the Raptors’ statistical production and contingent of players, I came to the realization that their roster construction is eerily similar to the Golden State Warriors’. More specifically, they both share:
- A high-octane backcourt – where the team is led by their top-five point guard and flanked by their top-10 shooting guard.
- A starting power forward who does all the little things that lead to winning, such as blowing up pick-and-rolls through aggressive hedges, the ability to switch and guard perimeter ball handlers, the awareness to know when to set a hard screen and when to slip to the basket, all the while keeping the defense honest by hitting the occasional “summer three,” as Raptors’ play-by-play man, Matt Devlin, affectionately dubs Amir Johnson‘s three-point escapades.
- A mercurial third-year wing who can run, jump, and shoot with the best them – and additionally, play a devastating brand of lockdown D on the right occasion. However, both often frustrate their respective fan bases with their inconsistent output and inability to handle the ball/create their own offense.
- A deep and talented bench that features a bevy of starting caliber players (it should be noted the Raptors’ bench has been outperforming the Warriors’ bench thus far this season), including:
- A super-sized backup point guard who can’t shoot.
- An undersized scoring off-guard who provides little else outside of volume scoring.
- A versatile, ultra-athletic back-up swingman with the ability to defend the league’s core of elite wings.
- A starting caliber 4 (although David Lee has been injured for the majority of the year, thus far) that opposing defenses have to account for – with Patrick Patterson serving as more of a stretch-4, while Lee operates primarily at the boxes and elbows.
- And an offensively challenged defensive anchor backing up the 5.
- Last, but not least, perhaps the NBA’s two best home crowds.
So, why are the Dubs considered, by most accounts, a legitimate contender to win the title this year, while the Dinos are consistently ranked a tier below on most power rankings? The answer is quite blatant, actually – it’s defense.
Particularly, to effectively complement their highly-watchable eighth ranked offense, the Warriors defend better than any team in the NBA. Comparatively, the Raptors’ defense is ranked outside the top-10, at No. 12.
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The primary difference between the Western Conference powerhouse and their Eastern Conference counterpart is the man who is anchoring their respective defenses. Before injuring his knee a couple of weeks ago, Andrew Bogut was the early season frontrunner to win the Defensive Play of the Year award.
His ability to anchor the paint – where, according to 82games.com, the Warriors hold teams to a Defensive Rating of 94.7 when Bogut is on the floor (for context, the best defensive team of the modern era, the ’04 Spurs, held teams to a Defensive Rating of 94.1) – in conjunction will his passing skills as the team’s high-post initiator had made the Warriors the most dangerous team in the league and spearheaded their recent 16-game winning streak.
Jonas Valanciunas, on the other hand, does not provide the Raptors with nearly the same type of defensive impact.
On the surface, Valanciunas seems to be improving incrementally. Most notably, he has gradually improved his per 36 minute numbers for each of his first three seasons in the NBA.
Offensively, JV has improved quite a bit. Namely, he plays within his limits and attempt the majority of his shots at the rim. Valanciunas has also added a significant amount of bulk since his days as a rookie. As a result, he is a much stronger finisher today than he was even last year.
When receiving the ball from his hard-penetrating perimeter teammates, Valanciunas often displays his solid fundamentals by keeping the ball high above his head in most instances. Additionally, his length – at 7’0″ (in shoes) and a 7’4″ wingspan – allows him to successfully finish over the top of most bigs.
Not only does Valanciunas shoot 70.3 percent at the rim, he also sports a 56.7 percent free throw rate – hence, when he is not effectively converting in the paint, Valanciunas is getting fouled. As a result, Valanciunas is currently scoring on an ultra-efficient 62.1 True Shooting percentage.
Although Valanciunas still holds the ball too long when he receives it on the block – where his indecisiveness allows opposing defenses to collapse and promote hard digs as soon as JV dribbles – and relies too heavily on his pump fake into running hook post routine in which the league has extensively scouted, he has shown marginal improvements in his post game, namely, his ability to execute a quick-hitting drop step or one-dribble baby hook.
An efficient, fairly-skilled young seven-foot true center must be averaging around 30-35 minutes per game, right? Wrong.
In fact, Valanciunas is averaging just 26.8 minutes per game – down from the 28.2 minutes per game he averaged last year when he fouled more frequently.
The reason being? The answer is quite blatant, again – his defense.
Although it’s extremely exciting to watch the Raptors claw back game-in and game-out before taking the lead for good during crunch time – as Devlin screams “WE THE FOURTH” (a play on words off of the Raptors’ current slogan of “We the North”) – such a model is clearly unsustainable, especially when the team goes on their six-game road trip in early January. There is a reason as to why the Raptors always seem to have to overcome huge 1st quarter deficits.
The biggest culprit, perhaps, is Valančiūnas’ pick-and-roll defense. More specifically, the Raptors’ defensive scheme often asks their power forwards to hard hedge and recover, while their centers to drop back and play a soft zone on high pick-and-roll situations. However, Valanciunas drops too far back on his assignments, with his heels teasing the semi-circle – thus, allowing opposing ball handlers too much freedom with a live dribble.
When watching his backup, Chuck Hayes, you’ll notice that he often drops back around the foul line – consequently, the opposing ball handler is forced to make a much quicker decision as to whether to continue driving, pull-up and shoot, or pass.
Accordingly, opponents score 5.3 more points per 100 possessions and shoot 2.7 percent higher, in terms of Effective Field Goal percentage, when Valanciunas is on the court.
One has to wonder; a professional coaching staff would surely recognize such a reoccurring problem and fix it immediately, right? The only plausible explanation as to why Valanciunas is still dropping that far back is that the Raptors do not want to expose his lack of foot speed.
Coming into the 2011 NBA draft, Valanciunas was branded as a long, active big in the mold of a Joakim Noah. He was supposed to be long and agile enough to hedge and recover while still protecting the rim in any given defensive sequence. However, with his added weight, he has evolved into the complete polar opposite – a lumbering big man who sits in the paint.
Watching Valanciunas run up and down the court is like watching a NFL lineman run on a hot summer day during training camp.
Moreover, even with his disproportionately built upper body, Valanciunas is still a weak one-on-one man defender – mainly because he is often undisciplined when defending pump fakes. Furthermore, despite his strength, he still sets weak screens way too often.
However, Valanciunas has shown to be a much better rim protector this year as he has become very sharp on his defensive rotations. According to NBA Stats, opponents only shoot 46.6 percent at the rim when Valanciunas is patrolling the paint – a rate lower than what opponents shoot against the likes of Marc Gasol, Anthony Davis, Tyson Chandler, and Andre Drummond, and only slightly higher than what opponents shoot against Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert, and Bogut.
With that being said, Valanciunas’ next step is to improve the aspects of his game that will impact the NBA style of play in 2015 – such as improving his lateral quickness so he can effectively show and disrupt a pick and roll, while recovering fast enough to contest an AD mid-range jumper – instead of aspects that would make him a serviceable big in the 90s such as bulking up to bang with Shaquille O’Neal.
Offensively, Valanciunas has to develop into a threat as either a high post initiator, or pick-and-pop shooter. When surveying the NBA landscape, the current crop of top centers – of whom do not possess the superhuman athletic prowess of a Howard, Drummond, or Jordan – needs to either be an exceptional passer out of the high post, like Bogut, a consistent midrange shooter off of the pick-and-pop, like Nikola Vucevic, or both, ala Marc Gasol, who is arguably the best Center in the NBA.
Ultimately, can Valanciunas improve his defense enough, by the time the playoffs hit, to make the Raptors a legit contender? Probably not.
But the Raptors core is young enough, and Valanciunas is talented enough, in which the Raptors can wait for Big Science’s eventual big breakout.