Portland Trail Blazers: Back On Track After Win at Pacers
By Shane Young
A two game losing streak isn’t supposed to mean much of anything. That is, if you’re in the Eastern Conference.
Playing in the West, as the Portland Trail Blazers have the misfortune of doing, there’s little room for error. Portland is currently on pace to win 61 games this season, but that’s going to regress once they start going against Southwest opponents and even some teams from the Pacific. So, in essence, let’s say they’re on pace to win 54 or 55 games.
Having a couple two or three game losing streaks could be absolutely tragic out West, especially in their case. The difference between 54-55 wins and 49-51 wins could potentially mean homecourt advantage being lost. Last season, Houston clinched the last homecourt seed (No. 4) with 54 wins, and the eight seed out West (Dallas) had 49 wins. That’s a major difference from the East, in which the difference from a No. 4 and No. 8 seed was 10 wins last year.
After the Trail Blazers dropped the most disappointing game of the season at Minnesota, they fell in a clash between point guards at Chicago. It wasn’t a bad loss by any stretch of the imagination, since it was just the first loss to an East team all season. In 2013-14, Portland finished the year 23-7 against the East, with minimal disappointment. Now, they’re on pace to go 27-3 against the East, unless they run into unexpected frenzies from guys that can mirror what Derrick Rose brought to the table Friday.
When Portland knocked off Indiana on their home floor on Saturday, it was just a feeling of relief. Terry Stotts is fully aware that it’s not something to get rowdy about, with Paul George and Lance Stephenson no longer in their lineup, but it’s a reason to smile when you’re walking away from a five-game road trip.
“It’s good to come out of a road trip with a winning record,” Stotts said. “Hopefully we’ll have momentum going home. I thought we came out very focused and determined.”
Focused would be the only way to depict the type of second quarter Portland hammered the Pacers with. Not only did they torch Indiana’s defense for 36 points — the most points allowed in a quarter all season by the Pacers — but they also clicked on all cylinders from the field. It wasn’t about getting to the line, as some would expect in a large quarter. Hitting 14-of-18 field goals in the second, Portland knocked out two birds with one stone; they had their best offensive quarter of the night, all while securing their best defensive quarter (just 15 points allowed).
Portland shot 77.8 percent for the second quarter alone, while Indiana begged the basketball gods to have mercy on it’s soul, shooting 28.6 percent. Whenever there’s a 49.2 percent difference in field goal percentage in any quarter, the tables are going to turn. Luckily for Portland, the lead they already garnered — up t0 29 at one point — made the Pacers’ fourth quarter surge mean very little.
For the game, Stotts saw his team shoot 44.4 percent from the floor, although they made just five 3-point field goals (well below their average of 9.4 per contest). What’s fascinating about the Trail Blazers’ eerie season is that they’re not even scoring the ball as efficiently as we’d expect, but yet they have 18 wins. Being one of just five teams in the league to have 18 victories, their goal still has a chance to be met without them shooting as well as others.
After 24 games, Portland ranks just 20th in the league in field goal efficiency (45.2 percent) and 14th in true shooting percentage (54.2 percent). Of all the 10 teams below Portland in field goal efficiency this season, Houston is the only one in the playoff picture out West. In true shooting (which values 3-point shooting much heavier), the 16 teams below Portland have an average record of 8-15 on the season. What’s this mean?
It indicates that the 18-6 Trail Blazers shouldn’t be that deep in true shooting, and one would automatically think they’re in the top five or six in efficiency. But, they always seem to find other ways to stay proficient.
“That just shows that we’re doing the small things right,” Lillard said after Saturday’s win. “You know, cutting hard, setting screens … because even know we’re not making shots, we’re still executing well enough to where we’re getting maybe eight or nine shots at the rim.”
Lillard has a strong point, considering he and LaMarcus Aldridge have been in rough slumps, excluding the striking performances in Chicago on Friday. In the loss to the Bulls, Lillard and Aldridge combined to shoot 28-of-45 from the field (62.2 percent) while scoring 70 points together. They needed help off the bench, and failed to get it.
But, over the last five games (excluding Chicago), Lillard has shot just 34-of-91 (37.4 percent), and Aldridge has been even worse, at 35-of-98 (35.7 percent). Yet, Portland managed to go 4-1 during that five-game stretch, which is remarkable and dumbfounding.
However, when Lillard speaks about getting to rim more often due to better execution and great screen-setting, he may have been speaking great coach-talk for the media, or he genuinely believes the team is getting better looks.
Portland just finished a five-game road trip, and the amount of shots they actually get inside has actually dropped during the road stint.
During their first 19 games of the season, the Blazers were getting to the rim (less than five feet) at an average of 25.9 times per game (per NBA.com). They were also getting within close range (5-9 feet) 7.6 times per game. During the road trip however, their shots at the rim dropped to 23.2 per game. Their shots within 5-9 feet actually increased to 8.8 per game, meaning they are indeed getting closer to the basket than normal. But, it seems to be just a minimal improvement in shot selection.
Where the Blazers have really hit the nail on the head is how tremendous they’re finishing those looks near the restricted area.
During the road trip, they connected on 67.2 percent of their attempts from less than five feet away. That’s led the league in everyone’s last five games, right above the Dallas Mavericks’ 66.9 percent efficiency in the middle. It’s also vastly better than Portland’s effectiveness in their first 19 games, where they only hit 59.2 percent of their looks near the rim.
So essentially, the Blazers are getting just a few less looks inside five feet, but they’re doing a much better job at finishing when they get close. To Lillard’s credit, he correctly pointed it out.
You could say that most of it is due to Portland playing four Eastern Conference teams during their road trip. But, when you dissect it, you have to realize that those four East teams (Detroit, Indiana, New York, Chicago) have an average defensive efficiency of 104.27. That figure would be right around league average in defensive efficiency, so it’s not like they’re playing against incompetent defenses each night.
When Portland heads back to the Moda Center, obviously a lot of attention has to be put on their shot-making from the outside. It’s what makes the Blazers “Rip City,” after all. But, battling against the toughest West opponents from here on out, they should continue what they’ve been doing: Getting better and better inside the paint.
**All statistical support credited to NBA.com**