“Havoc” defense may be just a fancy name, but VCU’s defense is not so fancy. It’s fast, coordinated, controlled while at the same time being all over the place and difficult to overcome for opponents. Some teams have been swallowed by the fullcourt pressure defense in the past, but teams have seemingly figured things out, though not completely.
Taking care of the basketball is one of the most basic rules in basketball. If you take care of the ball and don’t get careless on offense, then you can operate at a higher level and give yourself more chances to succeed. VCU makes that more difficult, or, at least, it used to.
Ranked in the top 20 prior to the season, the VCU Rams are now off to a 5-3 start, losing three of their last five games to No. 12 Villanova on a neutral court, at an underrated Old Dominion team and at home against No. 7 Virginia. All three of these teams play a defensive style that challenged VCU and are great teams in their own right, but there was one key factor in all three of these losses: turnovers.
VCU’s offense is predicated off of forcing turnovers, which they have done, forcing 17 opponent turnovers per game through the first eight games. However, in these three losses, the opposition has either held on to the ball extremely well or the Rams have failed to convert on scoring off of those turnovers. Here are the numbers in their three losses.
Loss vs. Villanova: nine turnovers forced, 11 points off turnovers
Loss at Old Dominion: 12 turnovers forced, 12 points off turnovers
Loss at home vs. Virginia: 16 turnovers forced, seven points off turnovers
Villanova, obviously, had the best outcome of holding onto the ball, not allowing VCU to get out in transition where they thrive and tear defenses apart. Virginia did cough up the ball on par with the Rams’ season average of forced turnovers, but they failed to covert after the turnovers.
To put this into perspective, 26.5 percent of VCU’s offense last year came from points off of turnovers, scoring nearly 20 of those points per game. As of Dec. 6, the most recent this number was available prior to the Virginia game, 28.8 percent of VCU’s offense comes from points off turnovers (h/t to VCU’s Sports Information Department).
As you can see, forcing turnovers is the first aspect to the Rams’ offensive attack. Opponent mistakes allows for Briante Weber (who once again leads the nation in steals with over four per game) to get out in transition, finish himself or find another teammate running the floor with him.
Or, simply look at this way: over a quarter of their entire offensive output this season has come from points off of forced turnovers. So when they aren’t forcing those turnovers or scoring off of forced turnovers, that diminishes their offensive potential greatly. There’s only so much VCU can do in a halfcourt setting on offense that it become amplified when there defense isn’t clicking.
Now, that’s not to say that VCU is a lost cause. On the contrary, this is more to highlight a weakness so they can correct it in the future. However, they must go on a run in the rest of their non-conference schedule in order to get back to a potential 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Without quality non-conference road wins, it’s much harder to get a top seed in the tournament, and they have yet to gain one, with the win over Tennessee being a question mark.
Left on the non-conference schedule is a home contest against (23) Northern Iowa on Saturday, home against Belmont, who has Craig Bradshaw doing some great things for them this year, at Cincinnati and at home against East Tennessee State, Cleveland State and at Fordham. Winning at least five of these last six games heading into conference play will be huge for the Rams to get back on track.
After that, they will face teams in the Atlantic-10 that have faced them before and will certainly have a strategy to beat the pressure defense. Teams that are familiar with handling the pressure “Havoc” institutes are more likely to be able to figure a way around it. Lucky for VCU, though, the A-10 is not the conference it was last year, and the Rams are still the best team in the conference. Their talent alone should be able to get them to the top of the conference standings at the very least.
Regardless, VCU’s offense, and defense, are centered around turnovers. If they’re not getting those turnovers, then a quarter of their offensive production is taken away. Having that much of your scoring taken away puts you at a disadvantage throughout the game, allowing teams you should beat defeat you.
The numbers don’t lie: the Rams need to force turnovers and score on those opportunities in order to succeed. Without it, they could be facing a few more losses.