Despite all the turmoil surrounding their recent academic scandal, North Carolina looked poised to put that all behind them and contend for conference and national supremacy in 2015. So far this season, they haven’t exactly looked like contenders.
The first blip on the radar was a loss to Butler in the Battle 4 Atlantis, when the Tar Heels were outrebounded 57-40 in a 74-66 loss. They followed up that loss by defeating UCLA and Florida to finish off the tournament.
For a moment, it appeared as if the game against Butler was the wakeup call they needed to get focused and reach their vast potential. Or not.
The Iowa Hawkeyes visited Chapel Hill for the Big Ten/ACC challenge and handed North Carolina their second loss of the season, in a game that was frequently described by Twitter users as “gross.” Iowa shot 32.7 percent from the field and won! That seems crazy, but North Carolina shot an even more ghastly 27.9 percent.
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They also shot 4-of-23 from outside for a 17.4 percent evening from behind the arc.
This game was a representation of North Carolina’s overall problem; they can’t shoot. The fast pace they play leads to points (they’re 19th in the country in points per game at 81.9), but their shooting percentages are not what you would expect from an elite team.
They are shooting 50.8 percent on two-point attempts which is good enough for 127th-best in the country, and are shooting 28 percent from three-point range which ranks 307th. Together that makes for 44.9 percent from the field, which does not sound terrible, but it is 119th in the country.
Compare that to their buddies down the road in Durham who have the third-best shooting percentage in the country while also leading the NCAA in offensive rating.
Now, shooting percentages are not the ultimate deciding factor as to whether or not a team has a good offense, but these percentages certainly do not inspire confidence. Especially not for a team originally expected to be one of the best in the conference.
The Tar Heels still have hope. Their defense has been very good to start the season. They are fifth in opponent’s field goal percentage, holding teams to 33.5 percent from the floor. The Heels are also strong on the boards, averaging 45.1 rebounds per game, which is third-best in the nation.
In fact, Kennedy Meeks ranks second in the ACC in total rebound percentage, while Brice Johnson ranks seventh. Once the offense starts clicking they should be pretty close to the team I expected to see this year.
It also seems reasonable to believe that Marcus Paige will eventually bust out of his shooting slump, and put up the numbers we are used to seeing from him. There are still some positives to take away from the first six games.
Kennedy Meeks has been a revelation this year, scoring 13.8 points per game, with 10.1 rebounds on 63.8 percent from the field. J.P. Tokoto has played great defense on the perimeter, and is also becoming more of a facilitator averaging 4.8 assists per game to lead the team.
If freshman Justin Jackson can be more efficient, and Brice Johnson can learn to stay out of foul trouble, the Tar Heels might finally start putting together some good offensive showings.
The lack of three-point shooting is going to continue to be an issue, but the interior talent is good enough to overcome that, especially if Marcus Paige turns into his old self again.
Despite their offensive shortcomings this is still a solid basketball team. They are still 6-2 on the season, ranked in the top 25 in both the AP and coaches’ polls, and are much too talented to miss the NCAA tournament.
However, things are going to get harder before they get easier. Saturday, North Carolina will travel to Lexington, Ky., to take on John Calipari’s big, bad Kentucky Wildcats. Fret not Tar Heel fans, this is more of an opportunity than a daunting challenge.
No sane person in the country expects North Carolina to win this game. If they come out and even compete with Kentucky’s group of 7 footers, it will be impressive. If they do the unthinkable and actually win, this could be the spring board that sends them where they need to go.